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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

Will you accept President-elect Biden's offer to serve as his chief medical adviser? -@SavannahGuthrieAbsolutely, I said yes right on the spot. -Dr. Anthony Fauci pic.twitter.com/lHr3z1v3vo— TODAY (@TODAYshow) December 4, 2020 234

With his spring break just hours away, Central Michigan University student James Eric Davis Jr. was with his parents in a campus residence hall Friday morning when he shot them dead, police say.Davis Jr., 19, shot and killed his mother and father in the dorm on the northwestern edge of campus Friday morning, authorities said, leading to an hours-long manhunt that ended with his arrest early Saturday.It was the nation's 12th school shooting this year.It's not immediately clear what led to the shooting or why the parents, James Eric Davis Sr., 48, and Diva Jeenen Davis, 47, were on campus in Mount Pleasant, a roughly four-hour drive from their Chicago-area home.But authorities said the student had an encounter with police hours earlier -- on Thursday evening when he was taken to a hospital for what officers believed was a bad reaction to drugs, campus police Lt. Larry Klaus said.And the parents may have been intending to pick up their son for spring break, said Andre Harvey, mayor of the Chicago suburb of Bellwood, where the elder Davis was a part-time officer."The family is in shock and trying to piece everything together," a relative, speaking on condition of anonymity, told CNN.Arrest comes after midnightDetails about the younger Davis' arrest weren't immediately clear. But it came early Saturday after someone reporting seeing him on or near campus, the university said."The suspect was seen and reported by an individual on a train passing through the north end of campus shortly after midnight," the university said in an online statement. "Law enforcement personnel responded and arrested the suspect without incident."The shooting, which happened on Campbell Hall's fourth floor around 8:30 a.m. Friday, disrupted a campus that otherwise was winding down for a nine-day spring recess beginning Saturday.Students were told to stay in campus buildings until the afternoon when police officers started allowing them to leave. People trying to enter the campus to pick up students for spring break were initially directed to a campus-area hotel, where the university asked them to wait for instructions.The university's men's basketball home game Friday against Western Michigan University was rescheduled for Saturday morning at a neutral site, Northwood University, where it will be closed to the public except for family members, the Mid-American Conference said.The university, with roughly 23,000 students, is about a two-hour drive northwest of Detroit.Student had 'drug-related' incident earlier, police sayCampus police spoke with Davis Jr. on Thursday night, Klaus said during a news conference."At some point in the evening, he was transported to McLaren Hospital due to what the officers believed may be a drug-related-type incident, an overdose or a bad reaction to drugs. At that point he was released to the hospital staff," Klaus said.As for Friday's shooting, "we're calling it a family-type domestic issue at this point," he said.The victimsThe Davis family was from the Chicago area. Davis Jr. graduated from a high school in Plainfield, Illinois, about 30 miles southwest of Chicago, in 2016, said Tony Hernandez, Plainfield school district spokesman.His father was a part-time police officer in Bellwood for 20 years and assisted the department on special occasions."He was always there when you asked for him to be there," Bellwood police Chief Jiminez Allen said.The elder Davis was a pillar of the community, which has 20,000 residents, and was beloved by friends and neighbors, said Harvey, Bellwood's mayor.An Army veteran, he was also a police officer employed at the Jesse Brown VA Medical Center in Chicago, said center director Marc Magill."The staff at Jesse Brown VAMC take enormous pride in the care we provide our Veterans, and this situation hits us especially hard. We are currently providing grief counseling for staff," Magill said.The violence came more than two weeks after a shooting rampage at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, left 17 people dead and spurred a national debate over gun control.Nine weeks into the year and 12 school shootingsCNN's calculation of the number of school shootings include shootings on school property that involve one or more victims and other factors. These can also be domestic violence incidents.The-CNN-Wire? & ? 2018 Cable News Network, Inc., a Time Warner Company. All rights reserved. 4423

When the delayed Tokyo Games kick-off next year, the opening and closing ceremonies will be “simpler and more restrained,” according to the organizing committee.In an announcement Tuesday, the group said they were reorganizing their staff in charge of planning the symbolic, and in recent years large-scale, productions. Hiroshi Sasaki will now head up planning the events.While making no mention of how the ceremonies’ formats will be modified, the group said they will still be a celebration and reflect the “overall simplification of the Games” while still taking into consideration the need for COVID-19 safety measures.The new productions are expected to add roughly million (US) to the cost of the opening and closing ceremonies, according to organizers.The 2020Tokyo Games were supposed to happen this summer. However, as the coronavirus spread around the world, the games were postponed in March to 2021.“We are working to deliver Opening and Closing Ceremonies that will be in tune with the situation next summer. The ceremonies will still be a great celebration to be enjoyed by the athletes and watching world but will likely take a simpler and more restrained approach designed to reflect the overall simplification of the Games and the potential need to still consider COVID-19 countermeasures,” the Tokyo Games Organizing Committee said in a statement.Sasaki is no stranger to Olympic ceremonies, he was responsible for the flag handover ceremony at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics and directed the one-year countdown event held in Tokyo this summer.“With Mr. (Hiroshi) Sasaki’s support, we will stage Opening and Closing Ceremonies that will be remembered for many years to come as symbols of the unity and symbiosis of humankind in its overcoming of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the committee stated.The Tokyo Olympics are now planned to open on July 23, 2021. 1884

When asked directly if President Donald Trump condemned the action of an armed counter-protester who allegedly shot and killed two people in Kenosha, Wisconsin last week, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany declined to answer.McEnany said she would not "speak for Trump" regarding 17-year-old Kyle Rittenhouse's arrest. She implied that Trump would be holding his own briefing on Monday evening and suggested reporters ask about the incident then.Rittenhouse was arrested last week after traveling to Kenosha, Wisconsin, and allegedly shooting three protesters amid demonstrations following the police shooting of Jacob Blake. Rittenhouse is accused of killing two people and injuring a third. His attorney claims that he shot and killed in self-defense.An analysis of Rittenhouse's social media accounts indicates he was a Trump supporter. 858

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