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The gunman behind the Texas church massacre killed his grandmother-in-law during the attack, multiple friends of the woman told CNN.Devin Patrick Kelley had domestic problems and texted his mother-in-law as recently as Sunday morning, not long before he carried out the largest mass shooting in Texas history, authorities said."We know that he expressed anger towards his mother-in-law, who attends this church," said Freeman Martin of the Texas Department of Public Safety. He said Kelley had a history of sending her threatening texts.But his mother-in-law was not inside the First Baptist Church in Sutherland Springs when Kelley sprayed the congregation with gunfire and killed 26 people. The youngest killed was a 17-month-old girl, her family told CNN. The oldest was 77 years old, Martin said.The gunman's grandmother-in-law, Lula White, was the grandmother of Kelley's wife and often volunteered at the church, according to friends and her Facebook profile.The friends asked not to be named as the family has decided to not speak to the media about White's death at this time, though a few have posted on social mediaTexas Gov. Greg Abbott called the massacre "the largest mass shooting" in the state's history. 1227

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The man accused of setting a Southern California fire that has burned more than 19,000 acres appeared in court Friday and said, "It's all a lie!" as a judge read the charges against him.Forrest Gordon Clark, 51, did not enter a plea during the brief appearance in an Orange County courtroom. When the judge explained the process further to him, Clark said, "I comprehend. I do not understand though."He is due back in court August 17 for arraignment and bail review.Clark was charged Thursday with aggravated arson and criminal threats, among other offenses, in starting the Holy Fire in Cleveland National Forest that has scorched 19,107 acres and was 10% contained as of Friday night, according to forest officials. 725

The MLB Players’ Association issued its counterproposal to league owners for getting the 2020 season underway as the start of the season was disrupted due to the spread of the coronavirus.The latest proposal is for a 70-game season with players receiving a full prorated salary for those games.With most professional sports leagues coming back this summer, MLB has yet to formalize a plan for resumption.MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said on Wednesday that a new set of proposals was forwarded to the players.The tone from Manfred on Wednesday differed from earlier in the week.“We left that meeting with a jointly developed framework that we agreed could form the basis of an agreement and subject to conversations with our respective constituents,” MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said. “I summarized that framework numerous times in the meeting and sent Tony a written summary today. Consistent with our conversations yesterday, I am encouraging the Clubs to move forward and I trust Tony is doing the same.”But the union seemed to suggest that it was too soon for optimism.“In my discussions with Rob in Arizona we explored a potential pro rata framework, but I made clear repeatedly in that meeting and after it that there were a number of significant issues with what he proposed, in particular the number of games,” MLBPA head Tony Clark said on Thursday. “It is unequivocally false to suggest that any tentative agreement or other agreement was reached in that meeting. In fact, in conversations within the last 24 hours, Rob invited a counterproposal for more games that he would take back to the owners. We submitted that counterproposal today.”MLB said that based on an agreement between the league and players days after the league suspended Spring Training, players would only be paid a full prorated salary if games were held in front of fans. As of now, the likelihood of MLB games being played in front of fans this season appears to be low.The players union has complained that the league is attempting to play the fewest number of games possible.“The commissioner has repeatedly threatened to schedule a dramatically shortened season unless players agree to hundreds of millions in further concessions,” the MLBPA said on June 13. “Our response has been consistent that such concessions are unwarranted, would be fundamentally unfair to players, and that our sport deserves the fullest 2020 season possible.” 2430

The man accused of killing 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida earlier this year reportedly attacked a detention officer inside a Florida jail Wednesday morning.WTVJ-TV in Miami spoke to the Broward County Sheriff's office in Miami, who confirmed that Nikolas Cruz attacked and injured a detention officer at the Broward County Jail Wednesday morning. The condition of the injured officer is unknown.Cruz is the suspected shooter in the Feb. 14 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, where 17 students and teachers were killed. Cruz was charged with 34 counts of premeditated murder and attempted murder in March and is currently awaiting trial.  752