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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

Attorney Michael Avenatti has been placed under arrest on suspicion of felony domestic violence and was booked early Wednesday evening.Los Angeles Police Department officer Jeff Lee said the domestic violence report was taken on Tuesday in West Los Angeles and the arrest was made Wednesday."We can confirm that today LAPD Detectives arrested Michael Avenatti on suspicion of domestic violence. This is an ongoing investigation and we will provide more details as they become available," the LAPD Twitter account posted Wednesday.In a statement, Avenatti called the allegations "completely bogus.""I wish to thank the hard working men and woman of the LAPD for their professionalism they were only doing their jobs in light of the completely bogus allegations against me," he said. "I have never been physically abusive in my life nor was I last night. Any accusations to the contrary are fabricated and meant to do harm to my reputation. I look forward to being fully exonerated."Avenatti posted ,000 bail and left police custody Wednesday evening. He told reporters waiting outside the station, "I have never struck a woman. I never will strike a woman.""I am confident I will be fully exonerated," he added.The alleged domestic assault incident was first reported by TMZ.Avenatti emerged this year as a regular antagonist of President Donald Trump, beginning with his legal representation of Stormy Daniels and his frequent media appearances. For months, he has publicly flirted with a potential bid for the Democratic presidential nomination to challenge Trump in 2020.The alleged domestic violence incident could dash Avenatti's prospects as a potential insurgent Democratic candidate and clash with the image he has presented of himself as an advocate for women, including Daniels in her clash with Trump and an accuser against recently confirmed Justice Brett Kavanaugh.The Vermont Democratic Party canceled Avenatti's appearances for Friday and Saturday following his arrest, and it will refund all ticket sales, said Christopher Di Mezzo, the party's communications director.The decision to cancel the events was made "almost immediately after the news broke," he said.The allegation would also mark another legal issue for the California attorney, whose firm settled a case with the IRS in July and was ordered?last month to pay a multimillion-dollar judgment over debt to a former law partner.Following his representation of Julie Swetnick for her allegations against Kavanaugh, Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley said in October that he was referring Avenatti and Swetnick to the Justice Department. Avenatti said at the time that the referral was "baseless." Several Democrats said in the wake of Kavanaugh's confirmation that Avenatti and Swetnick's involvement damaged their efforts?to prevent Kavanaugh's confirmation -- a charge Avenatti denied. 2914

As questions arise over when a coronavirus vaccine should be granted FDA approval, the leaders of several major pharmaceutical companies announced they have signed a pledge not to rush the development of a vaccine.The companies, AstraZeneca, BioNTech, GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson, Merck, Moderna, Novavax, Pfizer and Sanofi, released a joint statement on Tuesday confirming the pledge.The pledge includes the following points:Always make the safety and well-being of vaccinated individuals our top priority.Continue to adhere to high scientific and ethical standards regarding the conduct of clinical trials and the rigor of manufacturing processes.Only submit for approval or emergency use authorization after demonstrating safety and efficacy through a Phase 3 clinical study that is designed and conducted to meet requirements of expert regulatory authorities such as FDA.Work to ensure a sufficient supply and range of vaccine options, including those suitable for global access.There has been pressure on both the FDA and manufactures to develop and approve a vaccine for the coronavirus. There have been more than 190,000 coronavirus-related deaths in the US since March, and the economic impact of the virus has cost millions of jobs.While most developed countries have not had the same public health pain as the US, the economic impact of the virus has been felt worldwide. The International Monetary Fund estimates a nearly 5% loss in global GDP in 2020.In Russia, the country claimed to begin distributing a coronavirus vaccine despite US-based vaccine candidates likely being months away from being able to demonstrate efficacy.The pressure domestically has also ratcheted up as President Donald Trump has suggested a vaccine could be ready by this fall’s presidential election."We're going to have a vaccine very soon... maybe even before a very special date, you know what date I'm talking about,” Trump said on Monday.In late August, the CDC told states to begin to prepare distributing a vaccine by Nov. 1. But Surgeon General Jerome Adams said that just because states will be ready to help distribute a vaccine on Nov. 1 does not mean a vaccine will be ready by then."We've always said that we're hopeful for a vaccine by the end of this year or the beginning of next year,” Adams told Good Morning America."We want to make sure states are available to distribute it," he added.The companies signing on the pledge said that the FDA has strict protocols for vaccine candidates. A typical vaccine trial takes one to three years, but the companies believe only a safe and effective vaccine will be granted approval.“FDA has established clear guidance for the development of COVID-19 vaccines and clear criteria for their potential authorization or approval in the US,” the companies wrote in the pledge. “FDA’s guidance and criteria are based on the scientific and medical principles necessary to clearly demonstrate the safety and efficacy of potential COVID-19 vaccines. More specifically, the agency requires that scientific evidence for regulatory approval must come from large, high quality clinical trials that are randomized and observer-blinded, with an expectation of appropriately designed studies with significant numbers of participants across diverse populations.” 3296

As you head to the stores for your back-to-school shopping, you may get suckered into buying items marked down as a sale. But there are a few things you should know before shopping if you want to save money.Jeff Kreisler, editor and chief of People Science, says in order to be a smart shopper, you have to pay attention to the "decoy price."“If something has three different versions," explains Kreisler. "The top version is too expensive, the bottom version is too cheap, and because we don’t really know how to value it, we chose what’s in the middle.”That middle item is not always the best deal. Also, don't get suckered into buying the newest item, which is usually overpriced.  712

AstraZeneca is the latest drugmaker to announce promising Phase 3 trial results from its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.On Monday, AstraZeneca said its two-shot vaccine candidate has been 90% effective thus far along with no safety concerns.“These findings show that we have an effective vaccine that will save many lives," said Professor Andrew Pollard, the chief executive of the study. Excitingly, we’ve found that one of our dosing regimens may be around 90% effective and if this dosing regime is used, more people could be vaccinated with planned vaccine supply. Today’s announcement is only possible thanks to the many volunteers in our trial, and the hard working and talented team of researchers based around the world.”The company added in its press release that its vaccine candidate offers two distinct advantages over vaccines made by Pfizer and Moderna — it's cheaper to produce, and does not need to be stored in ultra-cold conditions before use.AstraZeneca added that the company would "immediately" prepare regulatory paperwork to seek Emergency Use Listing status from the World Health Organization.AstraZeneca is just the latest drug company to report encouraging results from its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.Last week, Pfizer said it had submitted Emergency Use Authorization paperwork to the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) after a final analysis of its vaccine candidate proved to be 95% effective in preventing COVID-19. The FDA is expected to approve the drug in the coming weeks.Moderna has also said that early results show its vaccine candidate to be 95% effective, and is on track to have the drug approved for Emergency Use Authorization by the end of the year.AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna are all shattering records for vaccine development. The three vaccines are all on track to be approved for widespread use in uder a year. Typically, it takes several years for a vaccine to go from development to approval.The announcement comes as COVID-19 is spreading around the world at a rate not previously seen since the pandemic began. And while all three companies are pre-producing their vaccines in the hope that it will be approved, health experts warn that they won't be widely available until spring 2021. 2247