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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

At least seven people have been killed and six attackers "neutralized" Friday in Burkina Faso after attacks on the national army headquarters and the French Embassy, a government minister said.It's not yet clear who was behind the violence in the West African nation's capital, Ouagadougou.France's special envoy to Africa's Sahel region, Jean-Marc Chataigner, urged people to avoid the city center in a tweet referring to a "terrorist attack."Rémi Dandjinou, Burkina Faso's minister of communication, told CNN that an explosive device was used in the attack at the General Staff of the Armed Forces. At least five people were killed and two attackers "neutralized" there, he said.Four attackers were also "neutralized" and two Burkina Faso security members killed at the French Embassy, according to Dandjinou.He cautioned that the death toll might change.A spokesman for the French Ministry of Defense told CNN the situation at the embassy was under control.Freelance journalist Yacouba Ouédraogo, who is in Ouagadougou, told CNN the shooting had stopped and that the people who attacked the army headquarters wore Burkinabé army clothes.A government statement urged people to keep calm and avoid areas where there might be gunfire.The French Embassy earlier said on Facebook that attacks were underway there and at the French Institute, a cultural organization about a mile away.France's ambassador to Burkina Faso, Xavier Lapdecab, urged people via Twitter to act with "absolute precaution" as the attack was ongoing.Burkina Faso's national police warned people to move away from areas around the "vicinity of the Prime Ministry -- and the United Nations roundabout" in a post on its Facebook page. "The specialized units of the defense and security forces are in action," it said.The Prime Minister's office later posted on Facebook that it was not affected by the attack.The US Embassy urged people to seek shelter."Attacks are reported to be ongoing in downtown Ouagadougou, in the Koulouba area. The affected area includes the Chief of Staff Headquarters. Avoid downtown Ouagadougou. Shelter in place. Monitor local media for updates," it said on Twitter.France has a military presence in Burkina Faso as part of Operation Barkhane, which was launched in 2014 to combat jihadist activity across the Sahel region.The West, particularly France, considers Burkina Faso a key ally in the fight against al Qaeda in the region.The country was formerly known as the Republic of Upper Volta when it was established in 1958 as a self-governing colony under France. It gained full independence in 1960.It's not the first time that sites in the capital have come under attack.An attack by gunmen last year on a restaurant in Ouagadougou left at least 18 people dead, including two attackers. The victims were of several different nationalities.That assault echoed a similar one in 2016 on a cafe and hotel popular with Western diplomats in the same district of the city that left 29 dead. Responsibility for that attack was claimed by an al Qaeda affiliate, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.Later that year a jihadist assault on the Grand-Bassam beach resort killed 16 in neighboring Ivory Coast.  3206

ATLANTA (AP) — The former Atlanta police officer who fatally shot Rayshard Brooks is set to appear in court Tuesday to ask a judge to release him from jail while his case is pending. Garrett Rolfe faces charges including felony murder in the killing. Rolfe fatally shot Brooks in the back when Brooks fired a Taser in his direction while running away after a struggle on June 12. Rolfe is white. Brooks was Black. Rolfe's bond hearing is set for Tuesday afternoon. Felony murder convictions are punishable by a minimum sentence of life in prison. 554

As wildfires scorch parts of the country, COVID-19 has sidelined a critical group of firefighters: prison inmates. The shortage comes as states are on pace for what could be a relentless fire season.CalFire, the state agency tasked with fighting and preventing wildfires in California, has already responded to over 4,100 fires as of June this year. Compare that to an average of 2,500 in recent years.“This year, we’re seeing something more typical of year’s past, we’re seeing these small starts that are growing into bigger fires," said Thomas Shoots, a CalFire public information officer. "We have a 25,000-acre fire burning up in Fresno now.” Responsible for protecting millions of acres across the state, CalFire relies on help from crews of inmates from the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.“These are inmates who’ve chosen to help out California by joining these fire crews, and they’re a huge resource for the state,” said Shoots.Roughly 2,200 prison inmates are trained to work on the fire line, but COVID-19 has depleted their ranks.Of the state’s 118 staffed crews, 41 were quarantined because of prison outbreaks as of July 16, eliminating hundreds of firefighters at a critical time.States like Arizona, Colorado, Washington State, and Oregon also deploy inmates to wildfires, but in far fewer numbers than California.“We’re sitting much shorter than we have been in the past, but we’ve also taken a lot of aggressive steps to make sure we have enough folks for when these fires happen,” said Shoots.The state is hiring 858 paid firefighters to fill the void. They could also turn to the California National Guard and out-of-state resources if needed.“It continues to be a concern that COVID-19 could come in and decimate our staffing, but that hasn’t happened because we’re taking every precaution we can.”Like wildfires, COVID-19 has proved destructive and unpredictable, but firefighters stand ready to battle them both. 1968

ATLANTA (AP) — A representative for Tyler Perry says the filmmaker and actor offered to pay the funeral expenses for an 8-year-old girl who was fatally shot in Atlanta. Secoriea Turner was shot while riding in a Jeep Cherokee with her mother and another adult on Saturday night. The shooting occurred near a fast-food restaurant where a Black man, Rayshard Brooks, was killed by a white police officer on June 12. The Wendy's restaurant was later burned, and the area has seen frequent demonstrations against police brutality since. Perry paid for Brooks' funeral last month. No suspect has been arrested in the girl's shooting death. 642