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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Controversial Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel made an unexpected appearance in San Diego Thursday.Manziel threw passes during the "Pro Day" at the University of San Diego, where NFL scouts gathered to evaluate some Toreros seniors. They also took notes on the former Texas A&M star.Manziel, who currently lives in the L.A. area, has been working with San Diego-based quarterback guru George Whitfield, Jr. on his game.He flamed out after just two seasons with the Cleveland Browns.Manziel’s personal troubles include an arrest for disorderly conduct, an altercation with his girlfriend, and time in rehab for an unspecified issue. He admitted to depression and self-medicating with alcohol during his time in the NFL.Manziel just celebrated his first wedding anniversary and told 10News he’s too busy to get into trouble.He said he’s hoping to sign with a pro team and resume his career. 923

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Californians associate “The Big One” with a devastating earthquake, but U.S. Geological Survey experts say a potentially larger threat could hit the state in the form of an “ARkStorm.”SPECIAL REPORT: Complete coverage of California's winter stormsExperts from every scientific field related to a potentially disastrous weather event gathered in 2010 to create the ARkStorm Scenario report for the USGS, imagining aspects of flooding of biblical proportions reaching the Western United States.“These storms do pose a real risk to California, in some ways far greater than that of earthquakes,” experts said in the study.The ARkStorm Scenario report reads like a Hollywood post-apocalyptic film script. Weeks of rain and snow are followed by catastrophic floods, landslides, and property and infrastructure damage which would cripple California’s economy.While the name “ARk” brings to mind a lifeboat scenario, ARkStorm project manager Dale Cox and chief scientist Lucile Jones coined the abbreviation to represent “atmospheric river.” A common term for meteorologists, these rivers in the sky work like highways for water vapor which comes to a screeching halt when it reaches land.A typical atmospheric river is the Pineapple Express, which pushes moisture from the tropics to the West Coast. It was a Pineapple Express that reached San Diego on Valentine’s Day, bringing warmer rain and lower snow levels, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Alexander Tardy.RELATED: Mega storm could cause billions in damage to California, report showsModels in the ARkStorm report show multiple areas of submergence in central San Diego. Mission Beach, which routinely sees flooding during heavy rain, is underwater in the ARkStorm scenario. Fiesta Island, ordinarily dry, disappears under Mission Bay.West-facing beaches, including those near Highway 1 in North San Diego County, are covered in water. Imperial Beach fares no better in its known run-off spots.“You have this outflow then you have the storm pushing in; it dams up,” says Cox of the coastal flooding impact.RELATED: How to check if your neighborhood is at risk of floodingTiming is critical in the creation of an ARkStorm. The same amount of precipitation predicted in the ARkStorm Scenario fell in 2017, says Cox. What made the difference in the impact, he says, is that the rain fell in 80 days instead of the 23 days imagined in the report.The West Coast will get notice, but not much, Tardy says. The most reliable models could give Californians a three-week warning for heavy rain.“We’re going to see it coming, but not where we can build a new levee,” Tardy said.RELATED: How San Diego's flooding compares to FEMA's historical hazard mapThe timing of the next ARkStorm is uncertain.“It could be next year, or it could be 120 years from now,” said Tardy.San Diego has seen significant rainfall in the 2018-2019 season, but few storms in recent years can compare with the potential disaster envisioned in ARkStorm.RELATED: Photos: Flooding catches San Diego by surprise“How do we help people understand it can get bigger than what they remember,” Jones said. “We prepare for the ones that we remember.”To create the report, experts accessed information from the records of Spanish ships off the coast of San Francisco in the 1600s. Other data were collected from tree rings, and newspaper reports from Sacramento in 1861 and 1862, the years an epic storm submerged California’s Central Valley past the level of telephone poles.As severe as it may seem, the ARkStorm Scenario is not the worst case scenario, said Jones.“If it has happened, it can happen again. And it probably will happen again.” 3695

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Authorities eradicated a massive illegal marijuana grow operation discovered near a popular trail in the Rancho Pe?asquitos area.According to Drug Enforcement Administration officials, San Diego police officers were called out to an area of the Del Mar Mesa Preserve on Tuesday regarding a homeless encampment. That’s when they discovered more than 2,000 marijuana plants.The plants were 5- to 7-feet tall and were ready to be harvested. The street value of the crop is estimated to cost as much as .5 million, the DEA said.The plants were hidden below the canopy of the natural vegetation.“The way that it was set up, it was obvious people were living on that property, would lead us to believe, if we had to make a guess, it was most likely cartel-related,” DEA officials said.They called it a sophisticated operation, adding it was rare to see an illegal grow of its size growing in a city so close to homes.“In this case, we think it's more likely they found a fire hydrant or some sort of a city water source that they were able to tap into,” DEA officials said. “We couldn’t find that in this case, but we think that’s the most likely scenario.”Authorities said there was also an extreme fire danger associated with the grow. They found trash in the vicinity, as well as two propane tanks and open flame burners for cooking in an area with tall, dry vegetation.Authorities have not found anyone connected to the illegal operation. They are asking the community with any information to come forward. 1534

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Being shot to death by a cop. The fear is real for many families who have to call 911 on their mentally ill loved ones. As part of the Team 10 Transparency Project, 10News rode along with San Diego police to understand how officers respond to mental health emergencies. 10News is examining what police say they’re doing right to de-escalate potentially deadly encounters.This October, SDPD released officer-worn camera footage that showed the moments before officers shot and killed an El Cerrito man this summer who had charged them with a shovel. His family says he was mentally ill. The family called police when he started throwing bricks at his aunt.Police say an officer deployed a Taser but it didn't have any effect on Dennis Carolino, who began to advance. The San Diego County District Attorney’s Office is still reviewing the case, but it's stories like Carolino’s that alarm local mother Cheryl Canson. One of her adult sons has Bipolar Disorder. The other son has Schizophrenia. She says both of them experience episodes of psychosis. “They're unable to identify or distinguish whether the voice is outside [their heads] or it's their own voice or a separate voice inside,” she explains.Both of Canson’s sons are now incarcerated, but she says she always worried about their interactions with police. “I don't really look at law enforcement in a bad way but they need to be trained in dealing with mentally ill people,” she adds.RELATED: Mental health program for first responders gets OK from San Diego County supervisors“I'm very proud of the training that we receive,” says SDPD Lt. Carmelin Rivera. Lt. Rivera drove 10News around Balboa Park where he says his officers meet people from all walks of life. “It's also a place [where] oftentimes we encounter individuals that have mental illness,” he adds.San Diego County PERT (Psychiatric Emergency Response Team) Director Dr. Mark Marvin rode around with 10News, too. “We are basically providing the bulk of mental health training to law enforcement in San Diego County,” he tells 10News. The region’s eleven law enforcement agencies include San Diego Police Department, Carlsbad Police Department, Chula Vista Police Department, Coronado Police Department, El Cajon Police Department, Escondido Police Department, Harbor Police Department, La Mesa Police Department, National City Police Department, Oceanside Police Department and the San Diego County Sheriff's Department.PERT teams are made up of unarmed licensed mental health clinicians and trained sworn peace officers. Together, officers and clinicians respond to 911 calls for mental health related situations. A law enforcement officer first assesses the scene for safety, followed by a clinician, who provides specialized care.“The goal is always de-escalation,” Dr. Marvin tells 10News.This year, the San Diego County District Attorney’s Office announced an initiative to fund de-escalation training for police officers. A 25-year study from the DA’s found that 79% of officer-involved shootings had some evidence of drug use or mental health concerns.RELATED: What to do in a mental health crisis“Our training philosophy is when officers or PERT clinicians are encountering people in crisis, they're not just a collection of symptoms. They're people. They have tough stories to tell and we want to know what their stories are,” adds Dr. Marvin.Lt. Rivera tells 10News, “Really, it's about coming in with the appropriate level and tone, just like anything else.”Officers are taught how to communicate and look for cues before turning to any force. Lt. Rivera adds, “It depends on a lot of factors. Are people clenching their hands? Are they not responding to basic commands? Do they have any weapons in their hands? Have threats been made?California law mandates that officers get mental health training. Some agencies like SDPD get more field training and classroom time than other agencies.Dr. Marvin says that San Diego County is well ahead of the national training curve, but breaking stigmas will take time.The National Alliance on Mental Illness has a list of recommended things to say and do if you have to call 911 on a family member or loved one who is having a mental health crisis. Click here for more.Join our Facebook group for constructive conversation around these issues. If you are a community member with questions about how the police investigate themselves or have suggestions on how officer-involved shootings or police misconduct can be prevented, we welcome you to join this group and the conversation. Follow this link to join. 4608

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