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Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Other years, it is not. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet Union scientists.One of Lichtman's proudest achievements was accurately predicting the 2016 election. President Donald Trump signed a Washington Post article about Lichtman in recent years with his autograph and the phrase "good call."THE METHODLichtman doesn't look at polls."Polls are not predictors, they are misused as predictors," Lichtman said.Instead, Lichtman looks at the political party currently controlling the White House. Then he uses 13 keys to gauge whether the party controlling the White House will lose or not.They are: midterm gains, no contest in the primary, incumbency, no third party, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, major policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, no overseas failure, major overseas achievement, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic opponent."If six or more, any six more, turn against the party holding the White House, they are a predicted loser," Luchtman said.2020 PREDICTIONLichtman says before 2020, Trump appeared to be heading to a reelection. However Trump has now lost seven keys.In Lichtman's opinion, Trump has lost midterm gains, short term economy, long-term economy, no social unrest, no scandal, major overseas achievement, and charismatic incumbent."Could I be wrong? Of course human beings are wrong. But my keys have quite a track record," Lichtman said. 1541

President Donald Trump pardoned Thanksgiving Turkeys on Tuesday, a comical White House tradition that has been around since the 1940s. On a more serious note, one question is whether Trump will issue more pardons before he leaves office on January 20. HISTORY OF PARDONSThe Constitution gives the president of the United States broad powers to pardon individuals with instructions saying the president “shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States.”Presidents have used this clause extensively throughout history. President Franklin D. Rosevelt pardoned over 2,800 individuals during his time in office President Barack Obama pardoned 212 individuals. Trump, so far, has pardoned just 28 individuals.ACT OF MERCY Alice Marie Johnson is a beneficiary of one of Trump's rare pardons. Johnson was convicted of cocaine trafficking in the 1990s and sentenced to a lifetime in prison. After being convinced by Kim Kardashian West that Johnson had turned her life around, Trump granted Johnson clemency and then a full pardon earlier this year. "I am free!" Johnson said during the 2020 Republican National Convention. WHO MIGHT TRUMP PARDON?Trump could issues hundreds of pardons in his final months. There is a backlog of over 13,000 clemency requests pending at the Department of Justice. It's possible Trump could pardon former advisers, like Paul Manafort or Michael Flynn. Flynn briefly served as Trump's national security adviser.It is also possible he could preemptively pardon advisers like Rudy Guiliani or his son Donald Trump Jr. Neither have been charged with a crime but have been reportedly questioned by prosecutors. "A president can pardon someone for a crime that has already been committed even if they haven’t been charged yet. Just think of Nixon, he hadn’t been charged with anything when Ford granted him that pardon," Dr. Mark Osler at St. Thomas University said. Trump even tweeted in 2018 he may pardon himself. 1984

President Donald Trump said he spoke to officials with the Big Ten conference on Tuesday about a plan for opening its 2020 football season on schedule.Trump said he spoke with Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren on Tuesday morning, and tweeted that a plan was "at the one yard line."The Big Ten has not commented publicly on Trump's statement.Later, Trump told reporters that he believed "Democrats" would be the biggest hurdle in getting the season started — though it's unclear which Democrats Trump was referring to, or how they would be able to shut down football games across several states.On Aug. 11, the Big Ten announced it was "postponing" all 2020 fall sports, including football, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In its announcement, the league said it was exploring the possibility of all fall sports resuming play in the spring of 2021. 853

President Donald Trump plans to cast his ballot in person on Saturday, taking advantage of Florida’s early voting period.The White House says the president will vote in West Palm Beach, a short drive from his Mar-a-Lago private club, and, as of 2019, his official residence. The club is located in the town of Palm Beach, which doesn’t have any early voting locations.Trump moved his residence to Florida a year ago from New York, citing his frustration with New York’s political leadership. He also hoped it would give him a boost in the critical battleground state. His path to another term in the White House is virtually nonexistent without a repeat victory in Florida. 681

President Donald Trump bragged about a booming economy, touted his tough actions on international trade and lambasted Democrats for obstructing his agenda on Capitol Hill at a campaign rally Tuesday night in Tampa.Trump was in Florida to endorse GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis for governor ahead of a late-August primary. Compared with past campaign rallies where he has veered off script, the President remained relatively on message Tuesday night about the economy -- an approach that could give Republicans in competitive races hope as Trump ramps up his political travel schedule ahead of November's midterm electionsHe bragged about a soaring stock market, low unemployment rates and a drop in the trade deficit in the most recent quarter, though economists have said that latter figure could be artificially inflated by companies rushing to move products as trade wars on multiple fronts loom."The days of plundering American jobs and American wealth -- those days are over," Trump said.He heaped praise on farmers, who have seen their access to some foreign markets curtailed as a result of retaliatory moves as Trump has sought to reverse a trade deficit with China, renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and restart trade talks with the European Union.His administration recently announced a billion bailout for farmers hurt by the tariffs triggered by his trade moves."I want to thank our farmers. Our farmers are true patriots because China and others have targeted ... our farmers. Not good. Not nice," Trump said. "And you know what our farmers are saying? 'It's OK. We can take it.' These are incredible people."He also bragged that rural areas were "beautiful, Republican red" in the 2016 election.Some of Trump's claims about the economy were exaggerated or inaccurate. He said US Steel is opening six new mills. But as a publicly traded company, US Steel is required to announce such changes and so far has not done so.He also made false claims about the cost of moving the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Trump said at times in Tampa that the move cost 0,000 and 0,000.However, the 0,000 figure was just the cost of security upgrades and a US Embassy plaque ahead of a ceremonial opening in May. The US government is planning to spend million for a second phase of renovations that includes building an addition to the old consular building to accommodate embassy staff. And US officials have not ruled out the possibility of ultimately moving the US Embassy to an entirely different site, where a new embassy would be built.In Tampa, Trump also alluded to the possibility of a government shutdown at the end of September, saying he "may have to do some pretty drastic things" to get funding for a wall."But we're going to get it," he said. "Cause the Democrats are not voting for what we want to do, and they're not voting and allowing our values to take place in our country."Trump reiterated his calls for laws requiring voters to show photo identification. Largely Democratic critics of such laws say they risk disenfranchising elderly and urban voters who don't drive.In doing so, he said buying groceries requires an ID."You know if you go out and you want to buy groceries, you need a picture on a card. You need ID," Trump said.The rally came at the beginning of a three-month sprint to the November midterm elections.Trump is telling aides he wants to considerably step up the number of rallies he is holding, and his team is looking at ways to do just that, a source familiar with the President's thinking said Tuesday.Trump is annoyed at the probe by special counsel Robert Mueller and concerned that it is allowing his opponents to chip away at his legitimacy as President.But Trump is also concerned about the outcome of the midterms. He is nervous that the Democrats are going to take the House and stymie his agenda.The source also said this frame of mind helps explain the President's renewed manic tweeting. "He is in worker mode," the source said.Because of that, he is reacting as he often does and has his entire career. He is arguing that he must act himself -- that he wants to take things into his own hands, the source said.However, while Trump could help Republicans in Senate races like North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia, many of 2018's battlegrounds -- particularly in House races -- are in suburban areas where he is unpopular.Still, he has been a force in recent weeks in GOP primaries.Trump's first expressed support for DeSantis in December and more explicitly endorsed him with a tweet in June, launching him past former congressman and Florida agriculture commissioner Adam Putnam in the race to replace two-term GOP Gov. Rick Scott.DeSantis, whose campaign has featured frequent guest appearances on Fox News, has clung closely to Trump in the campaign.In a television ad touting Trump's endorsement that is narrated by his wife, DeSantis helps his toddler daughter "build the wall" and reads Trump's "The Art of the Deal" to his infant son. He teaches his daughter to read a "Make America Great Again" Trump sign, and the ad includes a shot of his son in a "Make America Great Again" onesie.Trump, meanwhile, has seen the importance of his endorsement grow in GOP primaries after Alabama voters ignored him and chose Roy Moore over interim Sen. Luther Strange last year.Two House candidates he backed -- Katie Arrington in South Carolina and Rep. Martha Roby in a runoff for her seat in Alabama -- both won. Then Trump-backed Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp crushed Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle in a Republican gubernatorial primary runoff last week.Trump vanquished two of Florida's most famous GOP figures -- former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio -- in 2016's GOP presidential primary. Bush had dropped out by the time the Florida primary took place, and Trump won the state with 46% support to Rubio's second-place 27% showing. 5938

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