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The National Guard is attempting to rescue dozens of people who are currently trapped at a California resort as the Creek Fire continues to burn out of control in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.According to The Washington Post, about 50 hikers remain trapped at the Vermilion Valley Resort with all escape routes cut off by the fire. The hikers have been sheltering in place at the resort since Sunday night.Officials have been unable to send rescue helicopters to the area due to low visibility caused by smoke from the fire. The area has dealt with high winds and record heat in recent days, which is making things difficult for both rescuers and firefighters.However, Col. Jesse Miller of the National Guard said Tuesday that the weather was beginning to turn."Mother Nature is trying to help us out this morning with some of the smoke clearing, allowing visibility for the aircraft to pick up the landing zones and get in safely to our folks here in California," Miller said in an interview on Good Morning America on Tuesday.So far, the wildfire is confirmed to have killed one person from smoke inhalation, according to the Fresno Fire Battalion. The Fresno County Sheriff's Office reports a second person died from a medical episode when EMS could not respond due to the conditions.According to CALFIRE, the Creek Fire remains 0% contained as of Monday evening. The fire has been burning since Thursday but nearly doubled in size on Monday alone to cover nearly 80,000 acres.Col. Jesse Miller told ABC News Tuesday morning that the National Guard is also attempting to send rescue helicopters to Hidden Lakes. It's unclear how many people are trapped at Hidden Lakes.The Washington Post reports that more than 200 people were rescued from the Creek Fire over the weekend. 1783

The number of people still unaccounted for following the devastating Camp Fire in northern California has dropped to 25, the Butte County Sheriff's Office said.The latest count is down from a one-time high of more than 1,000 people.The death toll remained at 88 on Saturday, with no further remains found, the sheriff's office said in a tweet.The Camp Fire burned through more than 153,000 acres in Butte County after it broke out November 8. It was contained November 25 after becoming the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history.The blaze decimated much of the town of Paradise and destroyed nearly 14,000 homes and more than 4,800 other buildings. 680

The next few weeks mark the beginning of serious financial uncertainty for millions of people, because a slew of debt, from income tax payments to several months of rent, are going to be due at the same time. “It is going to be a perfect storm of financial difficulty for many, many people,” said Andrea Bopp Stark, an attorney at the National Consumer Law Center (NCLC).The center recommends three steps for anyone that finds themselves in a financially difficult situation regarding debt.Step one: create a list of priority bills and debt to pay off. “People are going to be barraged with debt collectors calling and trying to get them to pay on a medical debt or a credit card debt, but those debts are less important,” said Stark. “Pay debts that if you didn’t pay them it would cause immediate harm to your family.”Those are things like your rent and a car payment, especially if you need your car to go to work.“If you have a judgment against you, a court judgment against you for a debt, it is important to try and make a payment plan to pay that because creditor could issue a garnishment against your wages,” Stark added. Step two: contact your lender to make a payment plan on those priority debts.“We are seeing data come in that there are people who are delinquent and don’t have a forbearance agreement when they could very easily be in a forbearance agreement,” Stark added. “I know wait times on the phone are horrible right now, but you have to be persistent and get through and find out what help is available.”Data collected by the U.S. Census shows that delinquency rates are higher in communities of color.“It is mostly Black and Latinx borrowers who are not getting these forbearance agreements,” said Stark. “Whether they don’t know about it or nobody is reaching out to them to let them know this is available, we don’t know why but that is a population that is going to be disparately impacted and has already been disparately impacted by this whole crisis.”Step three: find a way to stick to your prioritized debt list. “It may sound obvious but if you have it on paper and you have created a budget, stick that to the refrigerator or wherever, then you know these are the priority spending items,” said Stark. “If your son or daughter say, ‘Oh, I want this or that,' ‘no, look at the fridge these are our priority spending items, sorry.’” Because every situation may not be solved in three steps, the NCLC has now made its in-depth guide to Surviving Debt available for free. It has template letters to send to debt collectors and hundreds of pages of help to get you through this tough time. 2626

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The main actors from “The Princess Bride” are reuniting virtually this month, and not everyone is happy about the reason why.The cast, including Cary Elwes, Robin Wright, Carol Kane, Chris Sarandon, Mandy Pantinkin, Wallace Shawn, Billy Crystal, and Rob Reiner, will be doing a script read of the 1987 film followed by a Q&A. It’s part of a fundraiser for the Wisconsin Democrats.“Anything you donate will be used to ensure that Trump loses Wisconsin, and thereby the White House,” the event sign-up page reads.Texas Republican, and “The Princess Bride” fan, Senator Ted Cruz fired back at the actors. Following a tweet from Elwes promoting the event, he responded with one of his own.“Do you hear that Fezzik? That is the sound of ultimate suffering. My heart made that sound when the six-fingered man killed my father. Every Princess Bride fan who wants to see that perfect movie preserved from Hollywood politics makes it now.” 942

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