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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

WILLIAMSVILLE, N.Y. - They did it again! The Alba family in Williamsville, New York, are expecting their fourth baby and announced it the way they know best: with a catchy tune, funny lyrics, and an entertaining video.“You know we love to smile and make people happy," Danielle Alba told 7 Eyewitness News.The music video, set to the tune of "You're Welcome" from the Disney film Moana, hilariously describes how COVID-19 played a role in bringing their newest bundle of joy into the world."I canceled my vasectomy because of COVID-19," Sam sings on his backyard pool diving board. "I guess we have a souvenir from quarantine."This is Danielle and Sam's second music video. Their first video in 2017 welcomed their son Isaac with a parody of the song "Closer" by The Chainsmokers, which quickly racked up 11,000 views on YouTube.Their newest addition to their repertoire, which features their three children Emily, Rowan, and Isaac, is already becoming a sensation too. In just three days, the video had more than 2,000 views on Facebook.“Anytime somebody comments, 'this just made my day, it’s so wonderful,' it really makes us very happy. And especially right now, everyone can use a little happiness,” said Danielle.This story was first reported by Ashley Rowe at WKBW in Buffalo, New York. 1301

With hospitals overwhelmed in much of the United States, the number of coronavirus cases jumped to record levels on Wednesday. The total of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported on Wednesday was 144,000, according to Johns Hopkins University.There were also at least 1,900 coronavirus-related deaths reported in the US in the last 24 hours, according to Johns Hopkins, marking the deadliest day of the pandemic since May 6, when 2,300 Americans died of the virus.Wednesday's case increase was the highest single-day total since the pandemic began and broke a record that stood for one day. The previous record of 140,000 new cases was set on Tuesday. Wednesday marked the ninth consecutive day in which there were at least 100,000 new cases reported.The news comes as governors and public health experts throughout the country have pleaded with citizens to wear masks and follow social distancing recommendations. A number of states were looking to re-impose restrictions in hopes of keeping hospitals from filling up with COVID-19 patients.Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine threatened to close restaurants, bars and gyms in his state again if things don’t change. The state had more than 6,000 coronavirus cases on Tuesday, marking a one-day record.“I am very well aware of the burden this will place on employees and the owners, but these are places where it is difficult or impossible to maintain mask-wearing, which we know now is the chief way of slowing this virus,” he said.In neighboring Indiana, the state is limiting the size of social gatherings, depending on the county.“Unfortunately, too many of us have let our guards down,” Gov. Eric Holcomb said Wednesday.Across the country in Nevada, the state’s governor issued a similar warning."We don't have much time to act to avoid a dangerous hospital surge and keep our economy going and keep people at work," said Gov. Steve Sisolak.The COVID Tracking Project, a project led by The Atlantic, shows that current coronavirus-related hospitalizations hurdled the 60,000 mark in the US on Tuesday for the first time since the start of the pandemic. The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 has more than doubled in the last six weeks throughout the US.While state governors have been doing what they can to fight the virus, the White House has been silent on the virus since Election Day.The US is not alone in seeing a surge in cases. There has also been a significant surge of cases in much of Europe after going most of the summer and fall with a minimal number of cases. 2531

White House counsel Don McGahn's final day at the White House was Wednesday, sources say.A White House official and a source with knowledge of the matter confirmed his departure to CNN.McGahn has been planning to leave the White House, but a source told CNN his departure was expedited after President Donald Trump said Tuesday he had selected Patrick Cipollone as his successor.A source said McGahn had a 20-minute farewell meeting with Trump Wednesday. The source called it a positive departure but both Trump and McGahn recognized it was time for him to go. The source said McGahn didn't want to stay on and the President didn't want him to stay.The source, "Typically you would have the incumbent stay until the successor was ready to take his place. But in this case McGahn was tired of the President and the President was tired of McGahn."McGahn leaves his post after serving as White House counsel through the tumultuous first 18 months of Trump's presidency, steering the White House's handling of the Russia investigation and responding internally to the President's mercurial moods as the investigation ballooned.His departure is another one from the handful of top aides who worked on the Trump campaign before joining the White House. McGahn served as the Trump campaign's top attorney throughout the GOP primary and 2016 presidential election, becoming a trusted adviser to the future President in the process.But McGahn immediately faced controversy in his earliest days at the White House, beginning with acting Attorney General Sally Yates' warning to McGahn that then-national security adviser Michael Flynn could be blackmailed by Russia and that he had likely lied to Vice President Mike Pence. Flynn was forced to resign after reports revealed Yates' warning to McGahn about Flynn's conduct.As the Justice Department and congressional investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 election heated up, McGahn found himself increasingly at the center of Trump's and the White House's response to the investigation.And when Attorney General Jeff Sessions faced pressure to recuse himself, Trump enlisted McGahn to urge Sessions not to take that step. Sessions eventually did recuse himself, giving his deputy, Rod Rosenstein, the ultimate authority to appoint a special counsel.McGahn threatened to resign in the summer of 2017 after Trump ordered him to fire Robert Mueller, the special counsel investigating potential collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia's election meddling and questions of obstruction of justice.For McGahn, the President's order to fire Mueller was a bridge too far -- with the White House counsel refusing to follow through on the order, a person familiar with the matter told CNN. The New York Times first reported Trump's move to fire Mueller and McGahn's refusal to carry out the order.The slew of incidents involving the President and McGahn amid the Russia investigation made the White House counsel an important witness in Mueller's investigation, with McGahn sitting for interviews with Mueller's team in December.Before joining the Trump campaign and the White House, McGahn worked at the powerful DC law firm Jones Day and previously served as a commissioner on the Federal Election Commission. 3265

When Hurricane Michael made landfall Wednesday as a Category 4 storm, it brought 150 miles per hour winds, 14-foot storm surges, flash floods and heavy rains.But news of this coming disaster also brought charities and volunteers to the scene to help with immediate rescues and long-term recovery. You can assist these efforts by clicking the 'Take Action' button below or through?this link.If you are in the hurricane's path or had to evacuate, you can let friends and family know that you are safe through the American Red Cross Safe and Well page and Facebook's Safety Check on their Hurricane Michael Crisis Response page. Both of these tools can also be used to check on people you know in the area. 726