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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April. The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending. Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent. China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability. But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption. QUANTITY OR QUALITY? In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery. "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach. "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy." Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably." Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic. For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target. The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable. "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy. "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April. BUYING CURE It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how? "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years. "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said. Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said. Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said. Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s. Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent. "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk." Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax. As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities. "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said. CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE' Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth. Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries. "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach. "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global." Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect. Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure. As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop. It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach. "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said. "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.
SALZBURG, Austria, May 17 (Xinhua) -- Top Chinese legislator Wu Bangguo said here Sunday that exchanges between local regions of China and Austria constitute an important part of bilateral relations. Wu made the remarks when meeting with Simon Illmer, president of the parliament of the Salzburg Province of Austria. Wu, who is the first chairman of the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress (NPC) to visit Austria since 1994, arrived in Salzburg from Vienna on Sunday morning, continuing his official goodwill visit to the country. Wu said Salzburg has attracted more and more Chinese tourists with its many cultural relics and beautiful natural scenes. He said China treasures its friendly cooperation with Salzburg, hoping that both sides should create a new mode for and further substantiate their cooperation. Noting China is an important trade partner of Salzburg, Illmer said he believed Wu's visit will promote cooperation in such fields as investment, environmental protection and tourism. Wu Bangguo (L), chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, China's top legislature, meets with Simon Illmer, president of the parliament of Salzburg Province of Austria, in Salzburg May 17, 2009 More than 50 Salzburg companies have invested in China, notably among them is Porsche AG. Salzburg has set up a Chinese Affair Office while forging friendly relations with Hainan Province, Shanghai City and Heilongjiang Province in China. Wu said Salzburg plays an important and unique role in China-Austria relations. Before flying to Salzburg, Wu met with Harald Reisenberger, president of the Austrian Federal Council, in Vienna on Saturday. During the meeting, Wu said that both sides should treasure the current momentum of sound development in bilateral links. Reisenberger said the strong growth of the Chinese economy has brought vigor and confidence to the international community including Austria. He expressed the wish to further enhance friendly relations with China by deepening mutually beneficial cooperation and exchanges in such areas as trade, investment, high and new technology, culture, arts, science and education. Reisenberger said members of parliament from all parts of Austria wish to strengthen cooperation with China's National People's Congress (NPC) to enhance people-to-people friendship, promote exchanges between local authorities and contribute to the development of trade and economic cooperation between the two countries. Wu said parliamentary exchanges form an important part of China-Austria relations. He said the NPC and Austrian parliament have maintained close exchange and cooperation, helped enhance the friendly relations between both sides. He hopes that the two sides should carry on this tradition by pushing forward exchanges between political parties, local governments and peoples of the two countries. The two sides should promote practical cooperation in all fields so as to add new impetus to bilateral relations. Wu also reiterated China's principled stance on Tibet-related issues, stressing that this is the political basis to advance China-Austria relations. He hopes that Austria continues to support China on issues concerning China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Reisenberger reaffirmed that Austria will firmly adhere to the one-China policy. During his stay in Vienna, Wu also visited the Vienna high-tech zone.
BEIJING, May 7 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping has urged universities to reform and improve themselves to turn out more high-quality personnel for the society. Universities are supposed to produce "qualified builders and reliable successors of socialism with Chinese characteristics," Xi said while touring major Beijing-based universities from Wednesday to Thursday. Centering on the fundamental task of personnel fostering, he said, universities should reform all concepts and mechanisms that go against the mission, lift the overall quality of teachers, offer better services in helping students find jobs, beef up campus stability, and provide technical service and intellectual support for companies to weather the financial crisis. He also urged universities to prevent and punish academic corruption.
NANJING, April 23 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping urged Communist Party leaders Thursday to cultivate fine work styles and keep in close contact with the people. Leaders should be able to endure loneliness, content to live a simple lifestyle, resist temptation and stand up to tests, he said during a conference on studying and implementing the scientific concept of development held in the coastal province of Jiangsu. Government leaders should promote a hard-working style and put limited funds and natural resources to the best use, said Xi, who is also a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee. He asked officials to carry out investigations and studies of actual situations, pay visits to the grassroots levels and go down to the people. The people's requests should serve as the fundamental basis for government decisions, and leaders should put those issues that are in the fundamental and most practical interests of the people at the top of their agenda, he said. Leaders should take a correct attitude towards their personal gains or losses, and should not be preoccupied with respectability and material values, said Xi.
CHENGDU, May 13 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao Monday and Tuesday inspected reconstruction work and encouraged survivors to bravely face the music in southwestern Sichuan Province where a massive earthquake, centered in Wenchuan County, left more than 87,000 dead or missing last May 12. Hu and Vice Premier Li Keqiang visited heroes and models of quake relief, people working on rebuilding the area and grassroots officials and the masses in quake-hit Mianyang, Deyang and Chengdu cities and Aba prefecture. Chinese President Hu Jintao meets with representatives of anti-quake heroes, government officials and reconstruction project workers in Mianyang, southwest China's Sichuan province. Hu Jintao visited the reconstruction projects in the quake-hit places in southwest China's Sichuan province on May 11 and May 12, 2009. Hu praised the reconstruction efforts and encouraged them to make more contributions to rebuilding the quake-hit region. In a rehabilitation and artificial limb center for the disabled in Deyang, jointly set up by the local association for the handicapped and the Hong Kong Red Cross Society, Hu, moved by the staff's meticulous care, said, "You've not only brought here rehabilitation techniques, but a loving heart as well." Chinese President Hu Jintao helps a handicapped woman caused by the quake of last year in a rehabilitation center in Deyang, southwest China's Sichuan province. Hu Jintao and vice Premier Li Keqiang visited the reconstruction projects in the quake-hit places in southwest China's Sichuan province on May 11 and May 12, 2009.Hu encouraged patients to cooperate with doctors, stick to training every day and bravely face the music. He also helped Liu Chunyan, 37, who had both of her legs amputated after the quake, to practice walking. Liu wore artificial limbs and received rehabilitation training at the center. Hu asked Liu to be strong and optimistic toward life. The president also carefully observed an urban planning layout panel and a sand table model of the Beichuan County, which was flattened by the quake. Hu asked in detail about the progress of the reconstruction project. Chinese President Hu Jintao and vice Premier Li Keqiang meet with construction workers of the highway project from Dujiangyan to Yingxiu in southwest China's Sichuan province. Hu Jintao and Li Keqiang visited the reconstruction projects in the quake-hit places in southwest China's Sichuan province on May 11 and May 12, 2009.He told workers that building the new Beichuan was a "landmark project of an overall post-quake reconstruction," and "scientific planning, meticulous designing, efficient and quality construction are essential." Hu's car also cut the ribbon lining the newly-built expressway linking Dujiangyan City and Yingxiu Town, two of the worst-hit areas in the deadly earthquake, at a ceremony marking the road's opening to traffic. The new road is a fast track leading to the epicenter and is vital for reconstruction work. In a modern agricultural model park in Dujiangyan, which was built with Shanghai's help, Hu told technological staff to promote agricultural technologies so that farming could contribute more to local farmers' income growth. Chinese President Hu Jintao visits the Hi-tech-Agri. demonstration garden in Dujiangyan, southwest China's Sichuan province. Chinese President Hu Jintao and vice Premier Li Keqiang visited the reconstruction projects in the quake-hit places in southwest China's Sichuan province on May 11 and May 12, 2009Hu also visited an airborne land army regiment of the Chengdu Military Area Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA). Five crew members of an Army helicopter of the regiment died when their craft crashed in the mountains during an earthquake relief mission last May 31. The copter crew, headed by Senior Colonel Qiu Guanghua, had been working to rescue and evacuate survivors of the 8.0-magnitudequake. The PLA regiment relocated 1,128 injured people after the quake and transported 5,566 others to safer areas. Chinese President Hu Jintao meets medical personnel from Hong Kong SAR in a rehabilitation center in Deyang, southwest China's Sichuan province. Hu Jintao visited the reconstruction projects in the quake-hit places in southwest China's Sichuan province on May 11 and May 12, 2009. Hu visited families of the five crew members, saying the five were "reflection of the Party's principle of wholeheartedly serving the people" and their achievement would be enshrined in the people's heart. The president bowed deeply to their family members in a token of respect and acknowledgement. Hu asked local government to step up reconstruction efforts and ensured economic growth, people's livelihood and social stability so as to embrace the 60th anniversary of the founding of the country. On Tuesday, a memorial service to mark the first anniversary of the catastrophe was held in Yingxiu. Hu addressed the ceremony.