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Each winter, many people wonder whether its worth getting a flu shot while health officials repeatedly warn against not getting one.Now a new study sheds light on the benefit of doing so. Even when the flu shot is just 20% effective it can still reduce US doctor visits due to illness by an estimated 20 million in a single year, the new report published in the scientific journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States) finds.In addition, vaccination also can prevent thousands of hospitalizations and deaths, the study authors estimated based on the average vaccination coverage rate in the United States."Getting vaccinated against influenza is beneficial to the individual and to the community even when the vaccine is of relatively low efficacy," said Burton H. Singer, co-author of the study and an adjunct professor for the Emerging Pathogens Institute at University of Florida in Gainesville.Caused by viruses, flu is a contagious respiratory illness with mild to severe symptoms that can sometimes lead to death. The flu virus evolves rapidly and new viruses circulate in different parts of the world, so each year scientists must reformulate the vaccine. Add to that an imperfect manufacturing process and even a 'good match' formulation may not be as effective as scientists would like.In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated just 36% effectiveness for the 2017-18 seasonal vaccine as of February 3. (The season ends in May.)For the new study, Singer and his colleagues created a mathematical model of flu transmission and vaccination to evaluate how much illness is prevented by even a very low effectiveness flu vaccine. The research team found that at the average rate of US coverage even a poor vaccine would prevent a significant amount of illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths.For example, at just 43% coverage (the average rate of Americans who received a flu shot for the years 2012 through 2017), a vaccine with just 20% effectiveness could avert more than 20 million infections or illnesses as compared to not getting the vaccine. In addition, 129,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths could be prevented.Based on the model, if more people got a flu shot, say half of the US population, the same 20% effective flu shot would prevent an additional 3.63 million infections, 21,987 hospitalizations and 8,479 deaths."When a vaccine is fully effective on 50% or more of the people who are vaccinated, you need to primarily focus on vaccinating young children," said Singer. The reason? Children are still building immunity and they pass germs around at school."As efficacy of the vaccine decreases, it becomes increasingly important for the elderly to be vaccinated in addition to young children," said Singer, since the elderly are more likely to develop complications from the flu, such as pneumonia, which can be deadly.The CDC reported a total of 160 flu-related deaths in children and 30,064 flu-related hospitalizations overall?between October 1, 2017 and April 21, 2018. The highest rate of hospitalization occurred among adults 65 years old and older.Richard Webby, a flu scientist who is part of the World Health Organization's advisory board and a member of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital's Department of Infectious Diseases, said "effectiveness estimates go up and down based on a number of factors including match of vaccine and circulating strain and probably other factors we don't fully understand.""The take home message from the past few seasons is that there is much room for improvement," said Webby, who was not involved in the research.Still, more people, particularly the elderly, need to get vaccinated even when the vaccine effectiveness is lower than hoped, Webby said: "This study suggests that even with a less than optimal vaccine there is still much public health benefit that can be achieved if these are used properly and widely." 3992

Dr. Anthony Fauci said the country is at a critical place during the pandemic, and that the worst is probably still ahead. Despite warnings about traveling and getting together with people outside a household, Fauci feared another surge on top of the current surge following the Christmas holiday.“We very well might see a post-seasonal — in the sense of Christmas, New Year’s — surge, and as I’ve described it, as a surge upon a surge,” Fauci said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”“I share the concern of President-elect Biden that as we get into the next few weeks it might actually get worse,” Fauci continued.During the interview, he also expressed optimism about the speed of vaccinations happening across the country.As of Monday morning, almost 2 million Amerians have received the first dose of either Pfizer or Moderna’s two-dose COVID-19 vaccine. Nearly 10 million doses have been distributed to states, the CDC reports.Over the weekend, Fauci said he now believes the country will need to reach a 80-85% rate immunity to reach so-called herd immunity. This is an increase over earlier estimates, which were closer to 70%.On Sunday, Senator Marco Rubio called out Fauci in a tweet questioning the change.“Dr. Fauci lied about masks in March. Dr. Fauci has been distorting the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity. It isn’t just him. Many in elite bubbles believe the American public doesn’t know ‘what’s good for them’ so they need to be tricked into ‘doing the right thing,’” Rubio’s tweet says. 1520

EL CAJON, Calif. (KGTV) - City leaders in El Cajon want to add harsher penalties to punish stores that sell tobacco products to underage customers.Current law says stores cannot sell tobacco or nicotine related products to anyone under the age of 21.Under El Cajon's current Tobacco Retail License statute, any store caught selling will face either a fine or a 30 days suspension of their license for the first offense.A second offense brings a 90-day suspension. The third offense bumps that up to a year. If a store is caught selling to underage customers four times in five years, their license gets revoked.But some city leaders feel that's not harsh enough."I think that they looked at the ,000 fine and said that's just the cost of doing business," says City Councilman Gary Kendrick. "I think it's greed. These stores are profiting from the future suffering of our children, and I am going to stop it."Kendrick wants to make the first offense a 90-day suspension and raise the fine. He also wants more enforcement.The move comes after 15 stores got citations during enforcement stings during the spring. That's a big spike from previous years where as few as one store was cited.Of the 15 stores cited, eight are filing appeals. Six paid the fine for the first offense, and one store took a 90-day suspension for a second offense."This is a huge problem," says Kendrick.But store owners say more punitive penalties are not the solution."Is that going to solve the problem? I don't think so," says Isam Habib who owns the Ranch Liquor store on Washington Avenue."What can you do? When you have to hire employees in and out, and they're young, you train them, you teach them, and they make a mistake," he says.Habib says store owners don't think they should lose a large chunk of their business for one mistake."We just gotta check the IDs," he says. "Make sure they're 21."Kendrick says the City Council will look into the new rules during October. 1964

During an interview with ABC News on Thursday, Dr. Anthony Fauci said that wearing goggles can offer an additional layer of protection against the coronavirus.Fauci’s suggestion was not an official recommendation, but the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, explained why eyes can also be responsible for coronavirus infections."You have mucosa in the nose, mucosa in the mouth, but you also have mucosa in the eye," Fauci said. "Theoretically, you should protect all the mucosal surfaces. So if you have goggles or an eye shield you should use it."Fauci said his suggestion might become an official recommendation for the public at some point, much how like masks became an official recommendation in April. The CDC, however, has included eye protection in some of its sets of guidance for healthcare workers, depending on the circumstance.Last month, the Lancet published a study funded by the World Health Organization that indicated that wearing eye protection decreases the risk of catching the virus. The study suggests that wearing eye protection resulted in a 78% reduction in infection; infection via the ocular route might occur by aerosol transmission or self-inoculation, the study said. This point was one the researchers had less confidence in, and further data is needed to draw a conclusion. 1350

EL CAJON, Calif. - The grieving mother of an accused thief filed a lawsuit Thursday against the homeowner who shot and killed her son.The civil suit identifies the homeowner as Michael Poe, and it stems from an incident in the early morning hours of March 11. Police say the homeowner woke up to the sound of glass breaking. He went outside and found someone breaking into his work truck. He told police there was a confrontation and he shot the thief.RELATED: Confrontation between?homeowner, suspected thief ends in deadly El Cajon shootingJoseph Mercurio was the man killed. His mother Monika Anderson said her son had a drug problem but was doing his best to stay sober.“He was on Suboxone, a drug to stay sober, and someone had stolen his Suboxone,” Anderson said. “Although it's really hard for me to imagine my son at  31 years of age would just start stealing, but I think he was just desperate for drugs and in a lot of pain. I don’t think he deserved to die over that.”Police are investigating the incident and no criminal charges have been filed. Anderson’s attorney, Dan Gilleon, said that investigation should not affect their civil lawsuit.“The bottom line is Joe shouldn't have died and at a minimum it's because this guy didn’t act reasonably,” Gilleon said. “This is not the Wild West. If you decide to play that gunslinger role, then you’re going to end up losing everything you own.”The lawsuit does not specify an amount.“It’s like a mother’s worst nightmare,” Anderson said in tears. “I told Joe, time and time again how much he meant to me.”Scripps station KGTV in San Diego has tried to make contact with Poe several times since the shooting happened, but have not heard back.   1759