阜阳治疗皮肤的医院哪个好(阜阳皮肤病医院是皮肤病医院级别) (今日更新中)

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As San Diegans ready their votes for the fate of Mission Valley's SDCCU Stadium site, a new poll indicates the likelihood of competing measures for the area.In a 10News/San Diego Union-Tribune poll conducted by SurveyUSA, Measure E, also known as the Soccer City Initiative, currently trails 3 to 2 among those surveyed.Measure G, known as SDSU West, leads 2 to 1 among those surveyed.RELATED: 430

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As we approach the November election, all eyes are on a handful of battleground states.That’s because of an election procedure that a lot of people have questions about and one that is unique to presidential politics: the Electoral College.When you fill out a ballot for president, you’re not actually voting for the candidate whose name you see. In California, you’re actually voting for 55 people who you may have never heard of, a “slate of electors,” who turn around and cast the real votes from the state Capitol in December. It dates back to 1787. The Founding Fathers were split on the mechanics of how to elect a president, and “this was the thing that they could all agree on,” said UC San Diego political science professor Daniel Butler.The Electoral College was a compromise between the framers who were leery of giving direct power to the masses and others who opposed having Congress elect the president.“It felt a lot like Parliament, a lot like what the British did, which is not what they were going to do,” Butler said.Article II of the Constitution lays out how it works. Each state gets a number of electors equal to the size of their congressional delegation; their senators and U.S. representatives. California has 55 electors, the most of any state.The Founders set up the Electoral College system under one big assumption: that it would be extremely rare for candidates to actually secure a majority, which today is 270 votes. If the contest ended without a majority winner, it would be decided by Congress.The last election decided by Congress was in 1824. The scenario the Founders predicted might happen once or twice a century has unfolded in every election since.“I think what frustrates many people about the Electoral College is that that majority winner in the popular vote isn’t always who captures the majority in the Electoral College,” said UC San Diego political science chair Thad Kousser.In 2016, then-candidate Donald Trump became just the fifth person in history to win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote, out of 58 presidential elections. It also happened in 2000 in the contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Founders envisioned the Electoral College as a check on the popular vote, able to potentially choose a different candidate than the one favored by the masses, but in practice, electors almost never do that. Most states have laws requiring electors to follow the popular vote.It was big news in 2016 when 10 electors broke ranks in an effort to block candidate Trump, because in every state electors are party loyalists, hand-picked by top leaders. So-called faithless electors have never swung an election.Kousser says for all the recent controversy surrounding the electoral college, there are some major benefits. Because the system empowers states whose electorate is closely divided between the parties, Kousser said it helps mitigate the role of money in politics.“What the electoral college does is it focuses and narrows the playing field to these few battleground states,” he said. “That's where you've got to run ads. That's where you've got to run your campaigns, not in 50 states. If we had to run 50-state campaigns then it would cost billions of dollars to win elections and it would give a huge advantage to whichever side raised the most money.”The other benefit of focusing elections on key swing states is that it pushes the parties more towards the center, Kousser argues. Without the Electoral College, he says candidates would try to “run up the score” and collect as many votes as possible in more populous states like California and Texas that tend to be more politically polarized. 3703

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — California drivers will want to be aware of several new traffic laws, including stipulations around unattended kids in cars and moving over for emergency vehicles, that will be enforced in 2021.Assembly Bill 2717, which goes into effect on Jan. 1, 2021, will exempt a person from civil or criminal liability for trespassing or damaging a vehicle when rescuing a child 6 years old or younger who is in immediate danger from heat, cold, lack of ventilation, or another dangerous circumstance.California had already exempted good Samaritans from liability when rescuing an animal or pet in the same circumstances. Also starting Jan. 1, Assembly Bill 2285 extends penalties for not moving over or slowing down for emergency vehicles with flashing lights on freeways to local streets and roads. Emergency vehicles will also now include tow trucks and Caltrans vehicles, in addition to law enforcement and emergency vehicles.If a driver violates the "move over, slow down" law, CHP officers can issue a ticket.Assembly Bill 47, which was signed into law in 2019, will go into effect on July 1, 2021. The law makes the act of using a cell phone "in a handheld manner while driving" for a second time within 36 months of a prior conviction for the same offense punishable by a point being added to the driver's record. This applies to violations of talking or texting while driving, except when hands-free, and to any use of the devices while driving by a person under 18 years old. 1505

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Authorities are searching for a felony traffic violator in Mission Valley who drove onto trolley tracks while fleeing from police during a chase Sunday morning. Police say officers tried to pull over a vehicle on Hotel Circle shortly before 9 a.m. because the vehicle didn’t have a front license plate.During the chase, the suspect failed to stop and ran several lights at high speeds. Police also say the driver drove the wrong way during the pursuit. RELATED: Fatal shooting leads to standoff between police, suspect in North ParkPolice used spike strips, prompting the driver to stop and flee the scene on Fenton Parkway and Friars Road near Costco.The suspect is believed to be hiding out in the Del Rio Apartments.  768

来源：资阳报