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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The "Capital of Craft" made its name known at the Great American Beer Festival in Colorado this weekend.San Diego breweries took home 17 medals from the massive festival, which features blind-taste testing of nearly 9,500 beers from almost 2,300 breweries. Since the first festival in 1982, San Diego breweries have grabbed 233 medals.At this year's event, local breweries claimed eight gold, four silver, and five bronze medals at the annual brew competition. Here's where you can try the award-winning ales:GoldAleSmith Brewing Co.: Private Stock Ale (Old Ale or Strong Ale)Breakwater Brewing Co.: Rye Dawn (Rye Beer)Pizza Port – Bressi Ranch: Chronic Amber Ale (Ordinary or Special Bitter)Pizza Port – Solana Beach: SeaSide Stout (Classic Irish-Style Dry Stout)Second Chance Beer Co.: Tabula Rasa (Robust Porter)SouthNorte Beer Co.: Sea Se?or! Mex Lager (American-Style Cream Ale)The Lost Abbey: A Creator’s Calling (Aged Beer)Two Roots Brewing Co.: Enough Said N/A (Non-Alcoholic or Alcohol Free Beer)SilverCoronado Brewing Co.: Freebooter Barleywine (Barley Wine-Style Ale)SouthNorte Beer Co.: Agavemente (Specialty Beer)Stone Brewing World Bistro & Gardens – Liberty Station: Stone Liberty Station Cimmerian Portal (American-Style Stout)Thunderhawk Alements: Bowie Knife (American-Style Black Ale)Saint Archer Brewing Company: Citra Pilsner (Contemporary American Style Pilsner)BronzeChula Vista Brewery: Browner Than Ivan (American-Style Brown Ale)Coronado Brewing Co. – Production Facility: Weekend Vibes IPA (American-Style India Pale Ale)Kilowatt Brewing: OB Bubble Dubbel (Belgian-Style Dubbel)Resident Brewing Co.: Industrial Gris (Belgian- and French-Style Ale)Rip Current Brewing: Rescue Buoy Imperial Stout (Imperial Stout)"The San Diego Brewers Guild is extremely proud of San Diego’s consistently strong showing at GABF," said Kris Anacleto, Vice President of San Diego Brewers Guild. "“It is because of our craft beer community’s pioneering spirit and innovation that San Diego’s craft beer legacy continues to thrive in today’s hyper-competitive national landscape."The accolades help reaffirm San Diego's reputation for craft beer. In 2018, the local craft beer industry accounted for .2 billion in economic impact on the region.San Diegans will surely have the chance to enjoy some of the award-winning brews and more soon enough during San Diego Beer Week, taking place Nov. 1 - 10. 2437

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The county's average price for a gallon of gas eclipsed for the first time since May 22, according to AAA.The average price of regular gas in San Diego spike 9 cents Saturday and has risen 10 of the last 12 days for a total of 35.8 cents, according to AAA.Since last month, the average price is up more than 40 cents.MAP: Click here to find the cheapest gas in your areaIn California, however, the statewide average sits at .95 a gallon. The national average rests substantially lower, at .65 a gallon.The rise in gasoline prices has been attributed to several issues at refineries in California and just weeks after attacks on Saudi Arabia oil fields. Refinery issues include unplanned work at PBF refinery in Torrance, an outage at Chevron’s Segundo refinery, a flaring event at Valero Benicia and Marathon’s LA refinery, according to GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst Patrick DeHaan.City News Service contributed to this report. 965

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The cycle of debt is something a lot of people are desperate to break. One of the biggest challenges is keeping up with credit cards, payments and beating the interest rates. Now, a San Diego startup is offering people an opportunity to make purchases on items they may need for themselves or their families, without interest rates, credit checks, or penalties. Marc Schneider is the CEO of Zebit, an online shopping site designed to help people facing financial hardships, get on track, make payments and get what they need. “We’re trying to provide sort of an Amazon for the under-served,” said Schneider. RELATED: San Diego Workforce teams up with UCSD Extension to offer student loan alternativeWhile growing up, Schneider and his family faced financial struggles of their own. “I’ve supported my mother since I was 15 years old. I grew up in a mobile home with a separated family. Ended up being homeless on food stamps,” said Schneider. Now, Schneider is a successful entrepreneur, with Zebit hitting million in 2017, and million last year. “Zebit was built to change how consumers get access to credit, to give them a fair deal and have zero gotchas,” Schneider said. In order to make purchases on Zebit, you first need to create a profile which includes providing your current employment status and driver’s license. The company then uses that information to verify your employment and determine how much of a Zebit line you will receive. The Zebit line is similar to store credit or having a credit card, but without the interest rates and penalties and with the chance to make payments for purchases over a 6 to 12 month period of time. RELATED: Realtors expect busy spring for buyers and sellersFor example, a MacBook Air on Zebit may cost around ,273. The may break down to 8 upfront with 12 payments of a month. A five-piece dining set may cost around up front, with monthly payments around dollars.“We’ve heard stories like you save my Christmas, my daughter wouldn’t have had a birthday present if it wasn’t for you, I couldn’t get married because I didn’t have a way to finance an engagement ring,” said Schneider.Some of the items on Zebit can cost 5 to 10 percent more than some items on Amazon, however the company still stresses that their interest-free model and competitive prices makes it a great shopping experience that was designed with people who may not a lot of money, or struggle with credit card payments and interest rates. “I wanna build a big company that makes an impact on a consumer base, a consumer base that tends to be invisible that tends to be neglected and a consumer base that tends to really rip people off over time,” said Schneider. Schneider hopes his company will help others break their own cycle of debt. 2808

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The mother who reported her 3-year-old son missing in Linda Vista Tuesday morning has been arrested. According to police, Maria Flores was arrested for filing a false police report. Flores reported her son, Kevin Serrano, missing from a home in the 2500 block of Ulrich St. just after 10 a.m., according to San Diego Police.At 3:00 p.m., police reported the boy was found unharmed in the 7500 block of Mesa College Drive. Officers said the child's caregiver called them and said he had been dropped off in the morning.Flores told police that Kevin was last seen at home. Police deployed officers on foot, patrolling on motorcycles, and air resources to help search for Serrano.“This is highly unusual. We’re taking this extremely seriously," police said during a press conference. "The door was unlocked and closed, according to the mom ... The clock is ticking for us, we’re extremely worried." 952