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WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund has sharply lowered its forecast for global growth this year because it envisions far more severe economic damage from the coronavirus than it did just two months ago. The IMF predicts that the global economy will shrink 4.9% this year, significantly worse than the 3% drop it had estimated in its previous report in April. It would be the worst annual contraction since immediately after World War II. For the United States, the IMF predicts that the nation’s gross domestic product — the value of all goods and services produced in the United States — will plummet 8% this year, even more than its April estimate of a 5.9% drop. 683

WASHINGTON — The course of President-elect Joe Biden's transition to power is dependent in part on an obscure declaration called “ascertainment.” The formal presidential transition doesn’t begin until the administrator of the federal General Services Administration ascertains the “apparent successful candidate” in the general election. Neither the Presidential Transition Act nor federal regulations specify how that determination should be made. That decision greenlights the entire federal government’s moves toward preparing for a handover of power. It includes millions of dollars in funding for the new team, office space, and makes administration officials available. The administrator of the GSA, Emily Murphy, was appointed by President Donald Trump. She has not given any indication on when she would start the process.The General Services Administration is a government agency that is in charge of federal buildings. The GSA’s leadership is supposed to act independently and in a nonpartisan manner, and at least some elements of the federal government already have begun implementing transition plans. Aviation officials, for instance, have restricted the airspace over Biden’s lakefront home in Wilmington, Delaware, while the Secret Service has begun using agents from its presidential protective detail for the president-elect and his family.The most notable transition delay in modern history was in 2000, between outgoing President Bill Clinton and incoming President George W. Bush. The Supreme Court didn't decided a recount dispute between Al Gore and Bush until December. 1603

Want another chance to see "Black Panther" on the big screen? You're in luck. Marvel Studios and IMAX announced that all 20 of its films released in the last decade will be run in IMAX theaters from Aug. 30 through Sept. 6 to commemorate the studio's 10th anniversary.For the first five days of the marathon, each IMAX theater will run four Marvel Studio films, going based on chronological order. On Sept. 4, the four films will consist of "origins," featuring "Iron Man," Spider Man: Homecoming," "Black Panther" and "Doctor Strange." On Sept. 5, the lineup will have "team-ups" featuring "Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 2," Captain America: Civil War," Avengers" and "Avengers: Infinity War."On Sept. 8, the marathon concludes with a fan vote. To find participating theaters, click here.  825

WASHINGTON — The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment aid fell to 860,000 last week, according to the Department of Labor. That is down about 33,000 from the week before.The Labor Department also said Thursday that 12.6 million are collecting traditional unemployment benefits, compared with 1.7 million a year ago.However, it does not include claims filed under other federal aid programs, including a program that provides benefits to those usually ineligible like the self-employed or gig workers.Before the pandemic hit the economy, the number signing up for jobless aid had never exceeded 700,000 in a week, even in the depths of the 2007-2009 Great Recession.The economy and job market have recovered somewhat from the initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic and safety measures. Employers added 10.6 million jobs from May through August, but that’s still less than half the jobs lost in March and April. 938

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump and Homeland Security chief Kirstjen Nielsen never quite clicked personally as the president chafed at her explanations of complicated immigration issues and her inability to bring about massive changes at the U.S.-Mexico border.With Nielsen's departure now considered inevitable, her eventual replacement will find there's no getting around the immigration laws and court challenges that have thwarted the president's hard-line agenda at every turn — even if there's better personal chemistry.The list of potential replacements for Nielsen includes a career lawman, two military officers and former acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement head Thomas Homan — a tough-talker who echoes Trump's border rhetoric."A good DHS person ought to be able to scare America" about heroin coming over the border and illegal crossings, former Trump campaign adviser Barry Bennett said. "But, the system is so against you legally and structurally."Trump soured on Nielsen in part over frustrations that she has not been able to do more to address what he has called a "crisis" at the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump has seized on statistics about illegal border crossings that have grown on her watch after reaching a record low early in his term. More than 50,000 people were detained at the southwest border in October — the highest monthly total since 2014 and up dramatically from 11,000 in April 2017."It's a tough job. You're someone who has to get good numbers on border crossing. He's always looking for that and it's tough," Bennett said.But illegal border crossings could also be tied to the seasons — some experts argue that more migrants make the dangerous journey through the desert when it's not as hot. And Nielsen has largely carried out the president's wishes, including pushing for funding for his border wall and defending the administration's now-abandoned practice of separating children from parents. She also moved to abandon long-standing regulations that dictate how long children are allowed to be held in immigration detention, and was working to find space to detain all families who cross the border. She limited what public benefits migrants can receive, and last week put regulations in place that circumvent immigration law to deny asylum to anyone caught crossing the border illegally. Nearly everything has been challenged or watered down by the courts."I don't think they're going to get the magic person," said Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank that studies migration issues. "Nielsen had been fairly hard-line implementing what Trump wants, but she's not willing to skirt around the law to do it."And it's not just about policy.Trump has also told allies that he never fully trusted Nielsen, whom he associated with President George W. Bush, a longtime foe. And he has told those close to him that he feels, at times, that she has stronger loyalty to her mentor — chief of staff John Kelly — than to the president. On occasions when she has tried to explain the complicated legal challenges associated with instituting some of his policies, Trump has exploded, belittling her in front of colleagues and blaming her for not being able to skirt the law.Trump had been expected to dismiss Nielsen as soon as Tuesday as part of a post-midterm elections shakeup that is likely to include a slew of other departures.But her departure has been postponed for now in part because there was no obvious successor, according to two people familiar with the discussions who were not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. She has no deputy secretary, and the next in line would be Claire Grady, the undersecretary of homeland security for management.Trump said in an interview with The Daily Caller on Wednesday that he'd make a decision on homeland security "shortly."Potential candidates include U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Kevin McAleenan, and two military officers — Transportation Security Administration head David Pekoske, formerly of the Coast Guard, and Maj. Gen. Vincent Coglianese, who runs the Marine Corps Installations Command, according to people familiar with the discussions.A Customs official didn't return a call seeking comment. A spokesman for Coglianese said he had not been approached by anyone regarding a position with DHS and was focused on his current job.Pekoske said at an unrelated news conference that Nielsen was a strong leader."I have an outstanding relationship with Secretary Nielsen," he said.Homan is regarded as a top pick, according to people familiar with the discussions. He was nominated by Trump to lead Immigration and Customs Enforcement, but stepped down before he was confirmed, and it's not clear if his nomination would pass the Senate or if he'd even be up for the job. He left in part because he wanted to spend more time with his family."I won't speculate what the president will do," he said on Fox News, but praised Nielsen as a "strong secretary" and said she was succeeding in a difficult job."It's a 24/7/365 job," Homan said. "Fifty percent of America hates you 100 percent of the time, you can't win on this topic because it is so divisive." 5264