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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

Wisconsin Republicans moved overnight to strip power from newly elected Democratic leaders, advancing legislation that would limit early voting, enact Medicaid work requirements and potentially block the incoming attorney general from withdrawing the state from a lawsuit over Obamacare.The measures are all expected to be signed by lame-duck Republican Gov. Scott Walker, effectively preventing his successor, Gov.-elect Tony Evers, and Attorney General-elect Josh Kaul from delivering on the promises that lifted them to victory in November.Nearly a day after the legislature's "extraordinary session" began, the state Senate and Assembly concluded their work, passing a raft of legislation designed to curtail authorities enjoyed by Walker and outgoing Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel. Democrats are expected to challenge a number of the measures in court.There is no indication when Walker will take up the legislation, but pending his approval, Wisconsin is now expected to reduce its number of early voting days, restrict gubernatorial influence over a powerful economic agency Evers sought to disband, and require legislative backing for certain decisions traditionally made by the attorney general and governor -- a move that would likely block Kaul from pulling the state out of a federal lawsuit against Obamacare.The legislature will also be able to hire its own lawyers to defend state law in court, diminishing the attorney general's power.During the campaign, both Evers and Kaul took their Republican opponents to task over healthcare issues, in particular the state's participation in the legal challenge which would end coverage protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions. Walker had promised to call a special legislative session to reimplement the rule on a statewide level if the suit succeeded, but questions lingered over how robust those new protections would be. A GOP measure that included lifetime coverage caps was rejected by Senate Democrats and a pair of Republicans early Wednesday.One of the bills passed earlier in the session would require permission from the legislature before the state's executive branch could make waivers or changes to public assistance programs, including work- and drug-testing requirements for "able-bodied" adults, putting into effect Walker's controversial Medicaid work requirements and requiring Evers to get Republican support if he sought to end them.Divided along party lines, the GOP-run state budget committee in Wisconsin had a day earlier advanced many of the controversial measures after less than 12 hours of debate and amid growing protests in and around the capitol in Madison.As the Senate session opened Monday, the public gallery was packed. After some muted laughter, the entire gallery was kicked out -- resulting in more protests."They can only win by cheating. That's what they're doing in there right now," Kathy Kennedy, a state employee who took the day off to protest in Madison, told CNN. "They're a bunch of cowards."Before the committee vote, Evers, in prepared testimony, called the legislation and the process behind it "unfettered attempts to override and ignore what the people of Wisconsin asked for this November.""This is rancor and politics as usual," Evers said. "It flies in the face of democratic institutions and the checks and balances that are intended to prevent power-hungry politicians from clinging to control when they do not get their way."Walker denied on Monday that the moves were a partisan power grab."Much of what we did over the last eight years is work with the Legislature," he told reporters, "not at odds with the Legislature."State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, a Republican, has been more open about the partisan machinations in play."I don't have any problem highlighting that right now," Fitzgerald said on Monday. "I want people to understand that, that there's going to be a divide between the legislative and executive branch."In a statement Tuesday, Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Executive Director Jessica Post called the GOP lawmakers' actions "shameful.""Just because Republicans in Wisconsin and Michigan don't like the outcome of the election does not give them (the) right to put power over people and disregard the will of the voters," Post said. "After years of voter suppression laws enacted by Republican legislators who were elected on their own gerrymandered lines, this partisan gamesmanship has reached a new low."Republicans are pulling from a playbook popularized in North Carolina two years ago, when Republicans in the Legislature responded to GOP Gov. Pat McCrory's defeat by taking action -- after the election but before his replacement could be sworn in -- to reduce incoming Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's appointees and require his Cabinet picks to be confirmed by lawmakers.The American Civil Liberties Union excoriated North Carolina Republicans at the time, calling their actions then "a shameful partisan trick." But the lawmakers ignored the backlash and McCrory signed off on a plan to curtail his successor's authorities, setting a precedent for Midwestern Republicans, who suffered heavy defeats in 2018.The-CNN-Wire? & ? 2018 Cable News Network, Inc., a Time Warner Company. All rights reserved. 5314

With Halloween fast approaching, and pandemic safety precautions still in place around the country, it can be difficult deciding how to celebrate this year.A website, Halloween2020.org, backed by the not-for-profit Halloween Industry Association, offers helpful ideas and suggestions to entertain based on geography and current COVID-19 levels.“With the convergence of a full moon, a blue moon, daylight savings time and Saturday celebrations — plus the unprecedented events of this year — Halloween 2020 will truly be one to remember. Much has changed … but our love for the fun, fright, and delight of Halloween is strong as ever,” the website reads.The site features a color-coded map with information provided by the CDC and Harvard Global Health Institute of COVID-19 cases in every county in America. Based on the color, different activities are recommended.Red, or high COVID-19 rates, can celebrate in person with a small number of friends adhering to local safety orders, or keep it to house residents only with a costume-required dinner, scavenger hunt around the house to entertain the kids, some Halloween-themed karaoke, or a night of scary Netflix shows.In counties designed as orange, consider sitting outside in costume as friends, neighbors and family walk or drive by with candy. Or, get together with neighbors to create a neighborhood candy hunt, complete with a treasure map.As COVID-19 rates decrease, the ability to celebrate with others expands. Including curbside or garage trick-or-treating, face mask parties, or outdoor costume parties.Stay safe, even while celebrating, by taking simple precautions.Recommendations from the HIA and CDC include adults placing candy on a clean table and allowing kids to grab it themselves, remain six feet away from other people not in the same household, carry hand sanitizer and use frequently, then remember to wash hands thoroughly before enjoying any candy or treats. 1942

With a majority of public school districts offering remote learning this fall, parents and teachers are ramping up online educational tools and resources for kids. Many are also focusing just as much on kids' mental health."It's going to be so much harder to build those relationships while you're on a virtual platform. What are we doing to start the year off with expectations of what students should do and how are they going to react with each other?" said Dr. Christina Conolly, a school psychologist in Maryland and a member of the National Association of School Psychologists. Dr. Conolly says with so many children missing that social interaction this fall, it's important for educators and parents to be intentional when it comes to keeping an eye on students' mental health."Anything we can do to help students engage with each other, bring a socialized setting that is supervised, is great," said Dr. Conolly. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Dr. Conolly, like other parents, put major restrictions on screen time. Now, she says many of those limitations have gone out the window. Speaking about her own daughter, she says safe, online interaction is crucial to children's social development. "Right now, if she's on there spending a couple hours gaming with my neighbors because she can't go outside and play with my neighbors, well I'm like 'OK, it's helping her with her emotional health.' Because human beings need human interaction," said Dr. Conolly.Child suicide rates are up nationwide and calls into the National Suicide Prevention hotlines are skyrocketing, Dr. Conolly said. Many children who didn't have mental health struggles before the pandemic are finding themselves coping with them now and those who already had difficulties are getting worse. She has advice for parents who are concerned about their children getting depressed because of a lack of social interaction. "I would say a number of things. First, talk to the staff at your school. You can talk to the teacher, administration, psychologist or counselor in the building. If you're concerned, they can talk with your student," said Dr. Conolly.Teressa Ruspi is a parent of three and runs the LRJ Foundation, a mental health and wellness organization that partners with schools in Georgia, Virginia and Pennsylvania to teach kids about the importance of social emotional health. Ruspi is putting her own children's mental health at the top of her mind as her three head back to school virtually."I'm really trying to hone in and be really mindful of their emotions right now and what's triggering those emotions. How to balance those emotions, how to have those conversations with them, so they can feel comfortable talking to me about what's frustrating with them," said Ruspi. Ruspi says her kids are FaceTiming frequently with classmates and even doing occasional playdates with families who are taking similar precautions from COVID-19 as they are."Kids can get kind of complacent and used to their new surroundings so now that they have been removed and been remote and disconnected a lot, we want to make sure that they don't stay disconnected," Ruspi said.The good news, is that now that school is back in session, many parents will have access to free sessions with a school psychologist or counselor. An extra resource that could be an extra boost to keeping children happy and mentally healthy during virtual schooling. 3421

While politicians debate unemployment benefits, those who rent housing are hoping a deal is worked out soon. Experts say, so far, the COVID-19 pandemic hasn't impacted the housing industry, but that could soon change.Property managers are concerned the housing industry could see a repeat of the Great Recession from 2008.Michael Cohen is the owner of Asset Realty Management in Tennessee, which manages close to 900 properties. He says when the pandemic first hit in March, they started to see a major decline in vacancies and payments coming in. But when unemployment benefits started to kick in, things returned to normal.Cohen is worried now that enhanced unemployment benefits for millions of Americans have ended."Some people are still trying to dig their way out of that hole where they couldn’t pay for March and now we’re three months later and they’ve made major attempts to get caught up and here we go again. Definitely, I'm concerned about it," says Cohen.Jack Strauss is the Miller Chair of Applied Economics at the University of Denver. He says to prevent another housing crisis, eviction moratoriums need to continue along with additional unemployment benefits.“We care about evictions, not just for the family which is a personal tragedy in moving, but it could destroy the neighborhoods,” Strauss said. “You can be evicted from your house, these rental properties will remain unrented for long periods of time."Strauss says there are only about 5 million job openings across the country right now and 18 million people are unemployed."We already have a health problem. We don't want another severe economic problem in terms of evictions, in terms of unemployment people going hungry and homeless," says Strauss."I just keep waiting for this tsunami of lack of rent payments and people not being able to vacate and not being able to fill our vacancies and them staying vacant. Then once we get into the holidays, then things slow down even more," says Cohen.Strauss believes Congress will eventually come to an agreement and reissue some form of enhanced unemployment benefits to people. He hopes this next coronavirus stimulus bill really focuses on those who are suffering, including people of color, who Strauss says rent properties significantly more and are more than twice as likely to face evictions."This will even further hurt the Black family unit and Lanoti family unit, as well, if we don't have a moratorium. We need to help people of color because they're more likely to be hurt by a lapse in federal aid," says Strauss. 2559

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