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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The midterm elections brought a lot of new firsts, with a record number of women and new minorities serving in office. Supporters are calling it a “rainbow wave.”Minorities of all ages, ethnicities and faiths will now have a voice in Congress. A sweeping 30 seats in the House were snagged, including one by first time Democratic candidate and former Navy commander Elaine Lorea, who flipped her district in Virginia blue.Voters in Michigan and Minnesota elected the first Muslim women into Congress. In Kansas and New Mexico, the nation’s very first Native American women were elected to join the ranks.But it's not just Democratic women shaking up trends. Republican women are making history too.Marsha Blackburn is now the first female Senator in Tennessee. Kristi Noem, the first female governor in South Dakota, also made history.And rounding out the blue and red hues in the rainbow wave is the governor-elect from Colorado.Jared Polis' voters surged the polls, electing him as the first LGBTQ state leader in the Mile High. He is the first publicly gay candidate to be elected as governor in the U.S.The midterms was a melting pot of genders and backgrounds, adding to state government and the new House majority. 1228

The lake in California, where former "Glee" star Naya Rivera tragically drowned in July, has reopened and banned swimming.The Lake Piru Recreational Area reopened on Aug. 20, according to the park's Facebook page.The park had been closed since July 9, since the actress first went missing.The park continued to stay close due to the coronavirus pandemic and the wildfires ravaging California.Still, residents told TMZ that they believe the park's restrictions somehow related to Rivera drowning in the Ventura County lake.Since reopening, the park has put precautions, including a swimming ban, the park's website stated.The park says shore fishing, personal watercraft, and boating activities are permitted.Rivera went missing on July 8 while boating with her 4-year-old son at the lake. Ventura County Sheriff's Office said Rivera rented a boat at the lake and excursed her son.Authorities were alerted when other boaters later found Rivera's boat drifting in the northern portion of the lake with her son sleeping onboard.Rivera's body was found on July 13.At the time, Sheriff Bill Ayub said Rivera and her son were swimming when the actress began to get tired. He thinks Rivera mustered enough energy to get her son on the boat but couldn't climb back in herself.Investigators believe Rivera drowned in what appears to be a "tragic accident," the office wrote in a press release.On July 14, an autopsy by the Ventura County Medical Examiner revealed Rivera's death as drowning.Her death certificate, which was obtained by People and The Blast, said the actress died within a "manner of minutes."After Rivera's death, a petition on Change.org was created urging park officials to put signs up warning swimmers of how dangerous the lake was.According to the Los Angeles Times, seven people have drowned in the lake between 1994 and 2000. 1848

The messages that enter Shane McDaniel's Facebook inbox are more than messages, they are hopes and prayers.“Shane, I am a Marine Corps veteran and my wife is disabled," one message read.“I worry about my father who has been battling stage 4 cancer," read another.McDaniel and his family try to answer those messages with each piece of wood they toss into a towering pile in Lake Stevens, Washington.“Get my eight kids together and split as much wood as we can," McDaniel explained of his efforts.The family chops, splits, and cuts wood throughout the year, but it's when the temperature drops that he receives countless messages on Facebook from people struggling and looking for a way to stay warm."It’s a lot of messages from people that are just in despair," he said.McDaniel’s drive to donate started three years ago, when he says during a scuba diving lesson, he nearly drowned.“Drowning changes your perspective on what you even own, what you spend your time doing, and I just wanted to make a positive impact,” he said.Each winter since, McDaniel has given firewood to those facing challenges."Our propane bill was almost 0 a month," said Sarah DeRemer, a single mom working multiple jobs.McDaniel brought her firewood last year in an effort to help.“I don’t get handouts. I’ve done everything on my own, for me and my kids, so it's just like, it was hard for me to accept someone being nice to me," DeRemer said.McDaniel helps people fighting many battles, including one he knows all too well. He says he lost his dad and brother to cancer, while his sister is fighting the disease now.Then, there are those fighting battles few will ever understand. People like Cindy Zink.“I’m a 60-year-old woman who was just diagnosed with ALS and this might be my last winter,” she said.Zink doesn’t know how much time she has left.“That’s what God has for me, so I’m going to wake up every day and live that day that he gave me," she said.For however long she will be here, she’ll be warmed by the wood in her fireplace.“It’s a beautiful thing when people come over and it draws them right into the home," Zink expressed.Warmth, especially in the most trying of times, carries a meaning beyond just temperature and flame.“Those are the ones that make you say, you know what, we’re going keep doing this," McDaniel said. 2327

The owl rescued from the Rockefeller Christmas tree is being memorialized by Frontier Airlines.On Tuesday, the airline company announced that the northern saw-whet owl, which was discovered in the Rockefeller Christmas tree last month, will be featured on the tail of their new Airbus A320neo aircraft.The aircraft is set to roll out sometime in 2021.“We’re always looking for new ideas for our plane tails, and when we heard the story of Rocky, we thought it entirely befitting that this intrepid little owl is honored on one of our tails,” said Tyri Squyres, vice president of marketing, Frontier Airlines in a press release. “Rocky will be remembered for years to come with her very special story enjoyed by thousands of travelers who fly on ‘Rocky the Owl.’”Rocky will join more than 100 other animals that are featured on tails in the Frontier fleet, the company said.After being rescued from the Christmas tree, Rocky was released back into the wild last month. 975