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On a night when Arizona's Republican US Senate primary was expected to command most of the attention, a stunning upset victory in Florida's Democratic governor's race stole the show.Democrats chose the most progressive candidate -- and the only one who wasn't wealthy -- in Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum. Florida's first African-American major-party nominee for governor, Gillum will face Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis, who has the backing of President Donald Trump.Their race will pit a Republican who is known for praising Trump on Fox News against a Democrat who says he wants single-payer health care and Trump impeached just as the 2020 presidential race gets underway. Florida is a major presidential battleground state.Arizona and Oklahoma also held primaries Tuesday. Here are five takeaways from the contests. 827

On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

Once again, nature has dealt a deadly blow to Haiti.At least 12 people were killed and 188 were wounded after a magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck northern Haiti on Saturday night, the country's interior ministry said Sunday.On Sunday, President Jovenel Mo?se visited the coastal city of Port-de-Paix, just 11 miles (18 kilometers) from the quake's epicenter."I will make sure the proper state systems are fully mobilized to help the victims," Mo?se tweeted.Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, is still recovering from the catastrophic 2010 earthquake that killed at least 220,000 people and destroyed much of the capital city. 650

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - Whale watchers enjoyed a rare encounter off the Southern California coast Monday: four orcas teaming up to prey on dolphins. “It’s very, very rare,” said Oceanside Whale Watching manager Carla Mitroff. The company had a boat full of whale watchers off San Clemente when the orcas appeared. Boat Captain Shane and staff biologist Lauren Turley captured the moment. “They were thrilled beyond thrilled,” Mitroff said of the passengers. “It’s the holy grail of whale watching.” The Eastern Tropical Pacific orcas pass through Southern California after a stop in Mexico, Mitroff said. The whale watching team hasn’t seen orcas in more than a year. Monday, the orca pod preyed on two baby dolphins as the mother tried to fight the killer whales. It's not unusual for orcas to eat larger mammals.“The diet of orcas depends to some extent on what is available where they live,” according to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. One ecotype of orcas in the Pacific Northwest eats fish, while other ecotypes eat marine mammals and squid. Killer whales are “considered a top predator, eating near the top of the food chain.” 1171

October 1 has been designated as National Pumpkin Spice Day. It’s a day to sip, smell and savor all things pumpkin spice, as if you needed a reason.First things first, what is pumpkin spice? There is typically no pumpkin in pumpkin spice. The name refers to a blend of spices traditionally used in pumpkin pie. This includes cinnamon, ginger, nutmeg, cloves, and allspice.The smell of this blend is nostalgic; bringing back memories of fun fall outings like farms or hayrides, family get togethers, Thanksgiving meals, or cold evenings spent under a warm blanket with a favorite person or pet.Starbucks was one of the first major brands to capitalize on this flavor, introducing their now-famous pumpkin spice lattes in 2003.For the first 12 years, the drink did not contain any pumpkin. Under pressure from a food blogger, Vani Hari, to release the ingredients, Starbucks announced in 2015 the drink would contain pumpkin puree, according to reporting by AdWeek.Since the launch of the PSL, dozens of food and drink brands have introduced pumpkin spice-flavored items in the fall.To make your own batch of pumpkin spice flavoring to dust on everything this season, use this recipe as a base and adjust as you prefer:2 tablespoons ground cinnamon1 1/2 teaspoons ground ginger1 1/2 teaspoons ground nutmeg1 teaspoon ground allspice1 teaspoon ground cloves 1362

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