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The gunman behind the Texas church massacre killed his grandmother-in-law during the attack, multiple friends of the woman told CNN.Devin Patrick Kelley had domestic problems and texted his mother-in-law as recently as Sunday morning, not long before he carried out the largest mass shooting in Texas history, authorities said."We know that he expressed anger towards his mother-in-law, who attends this church," said Freeman Martin of the Texas Department of Public Safety. He said Kelley had a history of sending her threatening texts.But his mother-in-law was not inside the First Baptist Church in Sutherland Springs when Kelley sprayed the congregation with gunfire and killed 26 people. The youngest killed was a 17-month-old girl, her family told CNN. The oldest was 77 years old, Martin said.The gunman's grandmother-in-law, Lula White, was the grandmother of Kelley's wife and often volunteered at the church, according to friends and her Facebook profile.The friends asked not to be named as the family has decided to not speak to the media about White's death at this time, though a few have posted on social mediaTexas Gov. Greg Abbott called the massacre "the largest mass shooting" in the state's history. 1227

The Pentagon has sent more than 300,000 pounds of Thanksgiving food to US military troops stationed overseas and at the US southern border, the Defense Logistics Agency announced Tuesday.The shipments, which include 9,738 whole turkeys and 67,860 pounds of shrimp, were sent to dining facilities throughout the Middle East, Europe, Africa as well as field kitchens in Texas and Arizona."Many of America's military men and women are away from home this Thanksgiving, making sacrifices to secure our freedom and to protect our southern border," Army Brig. Gen. Mark Simerly said. "The DLA Troop Support staff and I are excited about this amazing opportunity to provide them the very best Thanksgiving meal our country has to offer."Among the staggering amounts of food the DLA is shipping are 74,036 pounds of beef, 21,758 pounds of ham and 7,836 gallons of eggnog.Logistics planning to feed troops on Thanksgiving begins in May, according to Deputy Director of DLA Troop Support Rich Faso."The Troop Support Subsistence team is a dedicated group of employees who take pride in ensuring that deployed service members can experience an enjoyable holiday meal each Thanksgiving," he said.President Donald Trump hailed the troops at the southern border as "tough people" during a press gaggle Tuesday when asked about their work on Thanksgiving."Oh, don't worry about the Thanksgiving," he said. "These are tough people, they know what they're doing and they're great and they've done a great job.""You're so worried about the Thanksgiving holiday for them. They are so proud to be representing our country on the border," he continued.In October, Trump assigned nearly 6,000 troops to the US-Mexico border to deal with a migrant caravan heading toward the US through Mexico. Many in the group reportedly plan to follow legal procedures and seek asylum. 1866

The Keystone State is living up to its name, as potentially the linchpin in who becomes America’s next president.“Their processes just were never anticipating such an influx,” said Matthew Weil, with the Bipartisan Policy Center.It’s an influx of early absentee and mail-in ballots, in numbers Pennsylvania has never dealt with before. The state received about 2.5 million mail-in ballots, 10 times the number they had in 2016. Yet, counting all of the state’s ballots will take a while.Watch Gov. Tom Wolf provide an update about the state's election results:“In some of the biggest jurisdictions--Philadelphia, Pittsburgh--they just didn't have the experience counting those quickly,” Weil said. “And the fact that the legislature did not give them time before Election Day to count those, even knowing that this was coming, means that most likely we're not going to have great results until Friday.”Among the areas to watch in Pennsylvania: the suburban counties around the state’s two biggest cities, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. That includes Bucks County, which lies just north of Philadelphia.“Counting the ballots is really an uncertain science for us,” said Bob Harvie, Bucks County Board of Elections Chairman.Those mail-in ballots also take longer to count.“There are two envelopes we have to open: the outside envelope and the secrecy envelope,” Harvie said. “So, it's really double the work.”Here in Bucks County alone, they sent out 200,000 mail-in ballots for this election. That’s 10 times the number they did in 2016. And in Bucks County, like everywhere else across Pennsylvania, ballots postmarked on Election Day can still be counted if they’re received through Friday. However, elections officials are preparing for the possibility of a legal challenge involving those ballots.“We do know that there's very likely to be a legal challenge to that claiming that that's not constitutional,” Harvie said. “So, we are going to start segregating any mail we get.”In the end, though, officials in Pennsylvania hope the 2020 election keeps voters confident in the election system.“The people you see here working, you know these are not political appointees,” Harvie said. “They’re county employees, they’re government employees, and so, really, they're they've committed themselves to giving people a fair, accurate, safe election.”It’s an election that doesn’t appear to be over just yet. 2411

The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The man accused of shooting his estranged wife and her friend at an apartment complex in Ortonville, Michigan is behind bars this morning thanks to the quick-thinking action of a resident and law enforcement.  222