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As the polar ice caps retreat, polar bears could struggle to survive by the end of this century, a number of university researchers wrote in a study published in the Nature Climate Change journal.The study looked at a number of sub-species of polar bears who live in the arctic and how they have adapted to reduced sea ice from 1979 to 2016. The group of researchers said that all but a few sub-species of polar bears will be able to reproduce and survive given projected conditions by 2100.Polar bears use sea ice to capture seals for food. When sea ice erodes for the summer, polar bears fast. Although polar bears are capable of fasting for months, there are limits to how long the bears can go without food.The researchers examined energy needs of polar bears, and that the amount of time polar bears would fast would lengthen to a point that makes it too challenging to survive and reproduce.While resting female polar bears can generally fast for longer periods of time, reproducing females, males and cubs all require shorter fasting periods, the research found.“Avoiding continued sea-ice decline requires aggressively mitigating greenhouse gas rise,” the researchers wrote, “and our results explicitly describe the costs to polar bears of avoiding that mitigation.”To illustrate how much sea ice is being lost, NOAA is projecting that the arctic could have ice-free summers by 2042.Scientists have long discussed the possibility that polar bears could become nearly extinct by the end of the century. Beyond reducing carbon emissions, proposals have included relocating cubs to areas of the Arctic expected to retain higher levels of sea ice have been proposed. To read the full study, click here. 1714

As the NHL went into what it calls “Phase 2” of its plans to resume the 2019-20 season, the league announced that 23 players tested positive for the coronavirus.The 23 players who tested positive is in addition to 12 players who previously tested positive in early June when the league began “Phase 1” of its reopening plan. All told, the league has had 35 players test positive.So far, the league has administered a total of 2,900 tests, with 396 having been tested so far. The tests have been administered to players representing 24 of 31 teams who will participate in the league’s postseason.The league said it will not identify those who test positive for the virus.The league suspended play in mid-March in an effort to help stop the spread of the virus. The league left off as most teams played roughly 70 games of an 82-game schedule.Days after the league’s shutdown, an Ottawa Senators player became the first player to test positive for the virus.When the league resumes, a tournament be held to conclude the season with games played between two “hub cities.” With coronavirus cases declining in Canada while still on the rise in the US, it is likely the NHL will conclude its season north of the border. 1221

As President Donald Trump’s chances of re-election are sagging on Wednesday, the president declared himself a winner in the presidential election on Wednesday despite projections showing he is trailing Joe Biden in the Electoral College.As of Wednesday evening, Biden holds a 248-214 advantage in the Electoral College. Biden also holds an advantage in Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. If Biden hangs on and wins those states, he’ll have a projected 270 Electoral College, which is exactly the number needed to win.Twitter has recently updated its policy regarding misinformation involving the election, and as of 2 p.m. ET Thursday, Trump had his Twitter account flagged eight times for misinformation. 709

ATLANTA — The United States is going to require airline travelers from Britain to get a negative COVID-19 test first. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced the new policy late Thursday. Airline passengers from the United Kingdom will have to test negative for COVID-19 within three days of their flight. The requirement goes into effect Monday.The U.S. is the latest country to announce travel restrictions because of a new variant of the coronavirus that is spreading in Britain and elsewhere. The new of the virus is more contagious than other strains.The CDC said because of restrictions in place since March, air travel to the U.S. from the U.K. is down by 90%. 692

As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

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