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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been issuing frequent projections since March in an attempt to model the spread and impact of the coronavirus across the world.The models have been used by the CDC and White House coronavirus task force in an effort to better understand the potential number of deaths the coronavirus could cause.On Friday, the model added a new variable, one that could cause a steep decline of coronavirus deaths throughout the US. The IHME’s newest model, which predicts the number of coronavirus deaths in the US through the end of March, is now weighing the potential impact of vaccines on the virus.For those hoping for an immediate drop in hospitalizations and deaths caused by the coronavirus as soon as vaccinations begin later this month might be disappointed. The IHME's model shows the initial batch of vaccinations will have a relatively muted effect on deaths and hospitalizations initially. While by April 1, much of the general US population will likely not be fully vaccinated, many in the high-risk category should expect to vaccinated by then. How fast they get vaccinated will play a role in determining the number of coronavirus deaths in the US.As of Friday evening, there have been over 278,000 coronavirus-related deaths reported throughout the US, per Johns Hopkins University data. Without any vaccines reaching Americans, the IHME’s model projects a total of 548,000 would die from the coronavirus through April 1, meaning 270,000 deaths between now and then.If COVID-19 vaccines are distributed at expected levels, 9,000 lives would be saved by April 1, reducing the number of deaths between now and then to 261,000. But a rapid vaccine rollout – one that would vaccinate the high-risk population and begin to vaccinate the general population by the spring -- would result in 250,000 deaths between now and April 1.“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”In the meantime, Murray says universal mask wearing and social distancing will save more lives than a potential vaccine in the next four months.“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out,” said Murray.To see the IHME’s state-by-state projections for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, clickhere. 2790

The U.S. experienced its largest single-day increase in new COVID-19 cases on Thursday according to figures from Johns Hopkins University.Johns Hopkins public database reports that about 40,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus were reported to local health departments on Thursday. The previous one-day record for newly reported cases occurred on April 24, when about 36,000 were confirmed to have contracted the virus.According to Johns Hopkins, 2.4 million Americans have contracted the virus, and more than 124,000 have died after contracting it.A graph showing the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported each day in the U.S. (Johns Hopkins)New cases of the coronavirus are currently on the rise in several regions throughout the country. While top federal officials, including President Donald Trump, have maintained that the increase in cases can be attributed to an increase in testing, other concerning statistics, like hospitalizations linked to the virus, are also on the rise.On Thursday, Texas paused efforts to lift lockdown restrictions put in place earlier this year to prevent the spread of the virus. Other local governments have enacted mandates requiring masks in public.Vice President Mike Pence will hold a press conference along with the White House coronavirus task force on Friday in response to the rising case numbers. 1355

The University of Arizona and Boeing joined forces to find disinfectants that will kill COVID-19 and help make air travel safer. The project known as the Confident Travel Initiative is designed to test out cleaning solutions that can destroy the Coronavirus. Arizona microbiology professor Dr. Charles Gerba, who is known as "Dr. Germ," says he’s been working with Boeing since the summer to test cleaning products as part of the initiative to make flying as safe as possible during the pandemic and beyond.“It's really innovative to try to get a coating that will be antiviral," he said. "I think it’s the next step in hygiene and disinfection adding another barrier between when they clean and regularly disinfect aircraft. We’re looking at coatings. And anytime the virus lands on it would kill it, so you don’t have to keep disinfecting all the time."The team conducted laboratory testing by using a virus called MS2 on surfaces inside of an unoccupied plane. The virus has similar characteristics to the virus that causes COVID-19.“It would protect you from when they disinfect it or clean the aircraft. In case the virus lands again on a surface in the aircraft. We’ve been evaluating the overhead bins, the seats, the trays, the handles,” Gerba said.Cleaning solutions and ultraviolet wands were also used throughout the plane and according to Boeing, the results show that antimicrobial coatings were effective for extended periods of time and won’t be harmful to passengers. While Gerba didn’t share the names of the disinfectants, he did say the products can potentially be used on public transportation and other high traffic areas.“We actually did some of the work in the aircraft going in and contaminating certain areas like the tray in the aircraft the overhead bin and then evaluating the disinfectants to show they could kill the virus," Gerba said. "I see this new technology of self-disinfecting surfaces will revolutionize public places in cleanliness, cars, and buses you name it. These are products already on the market and they are new innovative products where you can put down a coating and it will last for hours, weeks, or maybe even months."The research project is expected to be done with other viruses by the end of the year and airplane cleanings will be done between flights.“It all has a big benefit I think it's going to add that extra barrier to me it’s the next generation of infection control and the spread of disease,” Gerba said.This story was first reported by Shawndrea Thomas at KGUN Tucson, Arizona. 2552

The US economy added 155,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported Friday. That's fewer than expected, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%.October's jobs numbers were also revised down slightly, to put the monthly average over the past year at about 204,000 jobs, and the average over the last quarter at 170,000.The report is a sign of a slowing but still strong labor market — and further support for the idea that the Federal Reserve may hold off hiking interest rates over the next year as quickly or as much as initially planned.That's reassuring to investors who had been worried that the Fed would move too fast to cool off an already decelerating economy."My reaction is a sigh of relief," said Leo Grohowski, chief Investment Officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. "I think a mild miss is more than acceptable in order to help the Fed understand that multiple rate increases may not be warranted for 2019."Paychecks grew by 3.1% over the last year, a relatively robust number that is in line with expectations as employers have had to fight to attract workers in recent months.The percentage of people participating in the labor force remained the same and the median number of weeks people remained unemployed dropped from 9.4 to 8.9 weeks in November, suggesting that people are getting jobs more quickly after losing them.However, the number of people "marginally attached" to the labor force — those who had looked for a job in the past year but stopped in the past month because they couldn't find one — has risen by nearly 200,000 over the past year. The percentage of people working part time who would rather work full time also rose slightly.Despite high demand for workers in some sectors, that may show that people who want jobs increasingly aren't in the places where employers need them — and that the economy still has room to expand before running out of workers entirely.The strongest job growth came in health care, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing, which added another 27,000 jobs for 288,000 total growth over the past year. Tariffs and fears of a larger trade war may not be having a huge positive impact, but they're definitely not choking the sector either.The-CNN-Wire? & ? 2018 Cable News Network, Inc., a Time Warner Company. All rights reserved. 2335

The U.S. decline in cigarette smoking could be stalling while the adult vaping rate appears to be rising, according to a government report released Thursday.About 14% of U.S adults were cigarette smokers last year, the third year in a row the annual survey found that rate. But health officials said a change in the methodology make it hard to compare that to the same 14% reported for 2017 and 2018.The adult smoking rate last saw a substantial drop in 2017, when it fell from 16% the year before.The new figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mean there are more than 34 million adult smokers in the U.S.Meanwhile, about 4.5% of adults were counted as current e-cigarette users last year — about 11 million people.That rate appears to be up from 3.2% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2017. But again, officials said that comparing 2019 with earlier years is difficult because of the survey change.The CDC figures are based on responses from about 32,000 people.Health officials have long called tobacco use the nation’s leading cause of preventable disease and death.___The Associated Press Health & Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 1279