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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615
Wildfires continue to rip through the Western United States, destroying homes, businesses, and parks.“We know that they can get exponentially large very quickly,” James Marugg, division chief for San Miguel Fire and Rescue in California, said.Those on the front lines like Marugg say each year, the blazes seem to get more destructive.“Prevention is key and it’s defensible space, and the extra few minutes that defensible space gives us to be able to set up a perimeter, be able to get in and make the difference for someone's home," Marugg said.Defensible space is the area closest to a building, which is cleared of vegetation to help slow the spread of the flames.“Defensible space equals time,” Marugg said. Now, firefighters out west are getting some much-needed assistance in getting rid of some of that vegetation, from a team that’s hungry to help."Fifteen years ago, I’d say people need to wake up,” said Johnny Gonzales, the field operations manager for Environmental Land Management.Gonzales showed us a herd of almost 300 goats. It's not a petting zoo, but a work zone. “I see it as a work zone,” he said. “They’re coming in here and eating what we consider flash fuels. And that's basically broadleaf weeds, grasses, brush.”It's all that stuff you can see in between the trees in a field. The difference between before and after is noticeable.“Our goal is to bring back nature into the equation of fire control,” Gonzales said. “We’re not raising these goats to go to the market. These goats are true urban foresters if you will.”Hundreds of goats, right near the road and adjacent to homes.“Goats, depending on the time of year, can eat about 7 to 12 percent of their body weight,” Gonzales said. On this current project next to Cuyamaca College, the goats are getting through about an acre a day.“Our college actually sits on 165 acres of wildlife, and yet, you can see it’s completely overgrown. There’s non-native dry brush, and just a few weeks ago before the goats were here, we actually had a fire on campus,” Nicole Salgado, interim vice president of administrative services at Cuyamaca College, explained. “It poses a risk not only to our college but the surrounding community.”Hiring the goats just made sense for them, cost-wise.“To have the goats here, it’s 30 percent less than that of a human crew,” Salgado said.“You're as safe as your neighbor, and then it turns into you’re as safe as the block and your community. We’re now a whole state that's in need of fire fuel mitigation,” Gonzales explained.It helps out firefighters when it comes time to put out flames. Less dry brush means slower spread of flames.“You harden your house to keep a burglar from coming in, you need to do the same with wildfire. You need to look at it and think what are my vulnerabilities,” Marugg said.There’s also another trend he said is impacting the number of homes we lose to fire.“There’s more houses in the woodland area and we have to respond to them quicker, otherwise we lose more homes,” Marugg said.“Each year, the limits for the development lines still get higher and higher. More homes are being built in the mountains, Essam Heggy, a research scientist at the University of Southern California, said.“Our visual understanding of the environment we’ve been living in, in many places have been [associated] to the malls we visit and not to the environment that’s surrounding us. This disbelief in the complexity of our environment is the main driver of these hazards."As we near the end of wildfire season, Gonzales and his herders continue to clear up the spaces they can year-round, in a sustainable way.“I see this in the future becoming as common as trash pick up,” Gonzales said. “They really may be historically, and in the future, one of the greatest things of all time for fire fuel mitigation.” 3832
Wildfires have killed one person and forced the evacuation of four towns in Oklahoma, authorities said.The state chief medical examiner's office reported a 61-year-old man died Thursday in Roger MIlls County as a result of injuries sustained in a fire that began southeast of Leedey, the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management said.A 54-year-old hunter reported missing in the large Dewey County fire was found alive, Oklahoma Forestry Services Fire Chief Scott Huff said. The man was flown to an area hospital Friday, but his condition was unknown. 562
When it comes to holidays and cookies, it seems most people in the United States are fans of peanut butter and sugar cookies.Instagram recently released a map showing what holiday cookie is the most popular in each state and peanut butter and sugar cookies were the clear favorites - with each cookie being named the most popular in 10 states. 351
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. - Last Friday was a day for the history books at the Palm Beach Gardens Fire Rescue Station 65.For the first time, it was staffed by a shift consisting of all women."Station 65 on that day, from the top down, captain, driver, firefighter, the rescue lieutenant, the paramedic, every single person was female that day on that shift," Deputy Chief James Ippolito said.The proof is in the picture, which featured Fire Medic Kelsey Krzywada side by side with her female colleagues. She is the youngest woman in the photo, whose ages range from 20 to 50. She said it didn't take her long to find her calling"I was always interested in the medical field so medical field and something super active to help people it seemed like a perfect fit," Krzywada said.She admits that in a male-dominated field, the road wasn't easy."Fire school was definitely really hard. I'm always the smallest one, smallest height, smallest weight. It's hard to keep up with the boys. I trained as hard as I could," Krzywada said.Lucky for her, there were other women before her, like Rescue Lt. Krystyna Krakowski, to help pave the way.Krakowski understood the impact of an all-female crew, even if for one shift. WPTV Palm Beach Gardens Fire Medic Kelsey Krzywada hopes the all-female fire crew will inspire other women to become first responders. "We just thought women empowerment, girl power, how fun to have five women at the same station. It was a great day," Krakowski said.However, it was also a sad day after the death of a gender equality icon."It also happened on a day that Justice Ginsburg passed away as well," Ippolito said.As Ginsburg famously said, "Fight for the things that you care about. But do it in a way that will lead others to join you."According to Krakowski, it's already working for people like her daughter: a college student and a member of the Palm Beach Ocean Rescue."Women can do the same thing men can do," said Krakowski. "You know, we're capable of anything."And now, there are scores of other women and young girls to carry on the legacy of equality."As the years go on, and it becomes more prevalent, more girls are gonna see us and be motivated to go to fire school and EMT school and continue on through the EMS field," Krzywada said.Ippolito said Palm Beach Gardens Fire Rescue currently has 12 female employees with room for plenty more.This story was first reported by Chris Gilmore at WPTV in West Palm Beach, Florida. 2507