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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Californians associate “The Big One” with a devastating earthquake, but U.S. Geological Survey experts say a potentially larger threat could hit the state in the form of an “ARkStorm.”SPECIAL REPORT: Complete coverage of California's winter stormsExperts from every scientific field related to a potentially disastrous weather event gathered in 2010 to create the ARkStorm Scenario report for the USGS, imagining aspects of flooding of biblical proportions reaching the Western United States.“These storms do pose a real risk to California, in some ways far greater than that of earthquakes,” experts said in the study.The ARkStorm Scenario report reads like a Hollywood post-apocalyptic film script. Weeks of rain and snow are followed by catastrophic floods, landslides, and property and infrastructure damage which would cripple California’s economy.While the name “ARk” brings to mind a lifeboat scenario, ARkStorm project manager Dale Cox and chief scientist Lucile Jones coined the abbreviation to represent “atmospheric river.” A common term for meteorologists, these rivers in the sky work like highways for water vapor which comes to a screeching halt when it reaches land.A typical atmospheric river is the Pineapple Express, which pushes moisture from the tropics to the West Coast. It was a Pineapple Express that reached San Diego on Valentine’s Day, bringing warmer rain and lower snow levels, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Alexander Tardy.RELATED: Mega storm could cause billions in damage to California, report showsModels in the ARkStorm report show multiple areas of submergence in central San Diego. Mission Beach, which routinely sees flooding during heavy rain, is underwater in the ARkStorm scenario. Fiesta Island, ordinarily dry, disappears under Mission Bay.West-facing beaches, including those near Highway 1 in North San Diego County, are covered in water. Imperial Beach fares no better in its known run-off spots.“You have this outflow then you have the storm pushing in; it dams up,” says Cox of the coastal flooding impact.RELATED: How to check if your neighborhood is at risk of floodingTiming is critical in the creation of an ARkStorm. The same amount of precipitation predicted in the ARkStorm Scenario fell in 2017, says Cox. What made the difference in the impact, he says, is that the rain fell in 80 days instead of the 23 days imagined in the report.The West Coast will get notice, but not much, Tardy says. The most reliable models could give Californians a three-week warning for heavy rain.“We’re going to see it coming, but not where we can build a new levee,” Tardy said.RELATED: How San Diego's flooding compares to FEMA's historical hazard mapThe timing of the next ARkStorm is uncertain.“It could be next year, or it could be 120 years from now,” said Tardy.San Diego has seen significant rainfall in the 2018-2019 season, but few storms in recent years can compare with the potential disaster envisioned in ARkStorm.RELATED: Photos: Flooding catches San Diego by surprise“How do we help people understand it can get bigger than what they remember,” Jones said. “We prepare for the ones that we remember.”To create the report, experts accessed information from the records of Spanish ships off the coast of San Francisco in the 1600s. Other data were collected from tree rings, and newspaper reports from Sacramento in 1861 and 1862, the years an epic storm submerged California’s Central Valley past the level of telephone poles.As severe as it may seem, the ARkStorm Scenario is not the worst case scenario, said Jones.“If it has happened, it can happen again. And it probably will happen again.” 3695

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Caltrans is warning drivers about a series of overnight closures along Interstate 5 over the next two weeks.From Sunday, November 4 through Thursday, November 8, northbound I-5 will be closed between La Jolla Village Drive and Genesee Avenue between 10:30 p.m. to 5 a.m.Northbound I-5 will also be closed from Tuesday, November 13 through Thursday, November 15 in the same area from 10:30 p.m. to 5 a.m.CHECK TRAFFIC The agency is encouraging motorists to take an alternate route to avoid possible congestion.The section of the interstate will be closed so crews can remove the temporary wooden structures from the new Gilman Drive Bridge over I-5. About half the falsework has already been removed. 737

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Cesar Rivera thought he'd achieved the American Dream when he and his wife bought a house just north of Mission Valley. "I moved in, I loved the area, I loved my neighbors," he says. "I want my boys to have this house when we grow old."But whether Rivera's family will last in long enough in the area remains to be seen. These days, Rivera is on anxiety medication. He says it's because of the home next door that became a vacation rental shortly after he moved in. He says it can rage any night of the week. "They go on arguing and yelling, and they're out there for hours," Rivera said. "They don't stop. That latest it's gone on is 3:30 in the morning."RELATED: Airbnb reports San Diego revenue for holiday weekends and eventsRivera says he has called the police on numerous occasions, but they don't always come in a timely manner. He also says the owner, Lael Volage, is not responsive: a claim she vehemently disputes. At any rate, it's exactly the situation the City Council aimed to avoid when it passed strict regulations in 2018. The rules would have limited vacation rentals to primary homes and structures on the same parcel. The rules also would have required many hosts to pay a 5 fee to fund a new enforcement division that would have worked evenings and weekends. But Airbnb led a successful referendum, and the council rescinded the law. "It's a free-for-all," said Volage. Volage says Rivera's claims are overblown, and that she too does not want her property to be the site of wild parties.RELATED: Vacation rental hosts blast bill that would set local limits"Nobody wants a problem," Volage says. "Nobody wants a party at their house. We try to regulate it. I turn people down all the time."Still, her online listing says parties and smoking are allowed, the home sleeps ten, and boasts a billiards table, jacuzzi, and wet bar. It is advertised for 0 a night on Fridays and Saturdays. "If you're a homeowner, you're allowed to have a barbeque, you're allowed to have beer pong in the backyard, and be able to have some music playing until 6, 7, 8, 9 even 10 o'clock," Volage said. She said vacationers should have the same rights, and that Rivera's problem is that his bedroom is right above the street. San Diego Police say they have been called to Volage's rental three times since May for noise complaints. RELATED: Team 10 investigates wild, violent parties at short term vacation rentalsThere is currently no proposal at the city to regulate short term rentals. A 2017 memo from the city attorney concludes vacation rentals are not an allowed use. Still, a spokesman for the mayor says he continues to support the "common sense regulations proposed last year as a starting point for new negotiations."After a Halloween night shooting at a vacation rental, Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky announced the company would ban party houses, and increase enforcement efforts. Those efforts include creating a "party house" rapid response team, and expanding manual screening of high-risk reservations. Volage's home is listed on VRBO. The company did not immediately return a request for comment. 3139

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — City council leaders unanimously approved a reform to allow local churches to build affordable housing in parking lots.The plan will allow churches and other religious institutions to choose to build affordable housing units in their parking lots to utilize large areas of the property that may go typically unused during the majority of the week.Previously, the institutions were required to offer a certain amount of parking spaces based on the location's capacity.The approval is part of a series of housing reforms the city hopes spark new affordable housing opportunities. City leaders are optimistic the moves will increase local housing supply, attract new construction, and lower costs in the long run.RELATED: Protesters air grievances in an end-of-year 'Festivus' at City Hall“There are so many religious leaders who want to know what they can do as we face a statewide housing crisis that is putting the squeeze on working families,” Mayor Faulconer said in a release. “We have people in need and people who want to help so giving churches the opportunity to build affordable housing on underutilized parking lots makes all the sense in the world.”The idea has been gaining steam since last Spring. The group UPLIFT San Diego led the effort dubbed YIGBY, or "Yes in God's Back Yard.""There are 1,100 churches in San Diego County with over 3,000 acres of property," UPLIFT leader Tom Theisen told 10News in June. "If just 10 percent of those churches, 100 churches, were to build 20-30 units each, we're talking thousands of units of housing."RELATED: Abandoned church in San Ysidro to be turned into affordable housingFollowing Tuesday's announcement, pastor Gerald Brown echoed UPLIFT's sentiment.“Churches in our community want to be a part of the solution when it comes to the housing crisis,” Brown said. “This important reform allows us to continue serving our communities in the best way possible, while providing the affordable housing that is so desperately needed.”City leaders also changed municipal code to allow continuing care retirement communities in zones that currently allow multifamily housing and as a conditional use in single family residential zones. The reforms also removed a requirement of an additional permit for multifamily residential developments that involves arranging to allow underground parking. 2369

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine begins circulating, there is another big logistical challenge ahead: reminding people to get the second dose.Both vaccines developed by Pfizer and Moderna require two doses spaced several weeks apart. People who get immunized often feel fatigue or soreness shortly after the shot and may experience fever, particularly after the second dose, according to clinical trial data.Doctors say those immediate, short-term side effects are a positive sign the immune system is revving up production.The side effects are similar to that of the shingles vaccine. But studies show about 20 percent of the people who get the shingles vaccine skip the second dose.Experts say if that happens with the COVID vaccines, there could be consequences.The worst-case-scenario is that skipping the second shot could allow the virus to spread and mutate, and potentially build resistance to the vaccines, according to Penn State University biologist David Kennedy.That outcome is considered unlikely, but the World Health Organization announced Monday it detected a new variation of the virus in England, showing the virus is already mutating without the evolution pressure of a mass vaccine program.“Does this make the virus more serious? Does it allow the virus to transmit more easily? Does it interfere with diagnostics? Would it interfere with vaccine effectiveness? These are questions. None of these questions have been addressed yet,” said Dr. Michael Ryan, director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program.When administered in two doses, Pfizer’s vaccine is 95 percent effective at preventing COVID-19 symptoms. The FDA’s review showed the vaccine could be up to 52 percent effective after a single dose, but the data was limited.“I think you could probably say you’re going to have short-lived but incomplete protection,” said vaccine expert Dr. Paul Offit. “Protection from disease but possibly not asymptomatic shedding.”It remains unclear whether people who are fully immunized against the virus can still spread it to others asymptomatically but someone who is only partially immunized may be especially prone to silent spread, according to Offit.When Americans roll up their sleeves to get the COVID-19 vaccine, they’ll get a 4 by 6 inch index card from the CDC noting which brand they got, the lot number, and when they’re due for the second shot.People who get Pfizer’s vaccine need to get a second shot 21 days later. People who get Moderna’s need to wait 28 days for round two.The CDC is encouraging people to photograph their card with their cell phone as a backup, because beyond the index card, the logistics of reminding people about their second dose will vary by state and healthcare provider.In California’s draft vaccination plan from October, the state said it was exploring ways to "systematically text, email, and/or auto-call individuals when their second dose is needed." The California Department of Public Health did not immediately respond to a request for comment about its latest plans.Much of the work may fall to the healthcare providers who administer the shots. Although the vaccine will be free for individuals, the government is paying providers for every first dose they give and for every second dose, a way to incentivize providers to keep close tabs on patients.However, only about 25 percent of the nation’s vaccination providers have systems that can send automated reminders, according to L.J Tan, the chief strategy officer of the Immunization Action Coalition. 3552

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