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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201

atThe NFL's TV ratings are down so far this season and if that news isn't distressing enough for the biggest ratings driver on TV, the lest slump follows a 2016 season marked by unstable ratings that had pundits and analysts scratching their heads.So is it time for the league and its TV partners to panic once again? The answer is that it's simply too early to tell.Brian Hughes, a senior vice president at Magna, which monitors audience trends, believes Hurricane Irma impacted viewership during the NFL's first week. There's also not enough of a sample size of games to make an true assessment of the league's viewership so far, he said.But the ratings slump could also be a sign of disruptive media trends on the horizon. 733

Attorney General Jeff Sessions is once again under scrutiny on Capitol Hill regarding his candor about Russia and the Trump campaign amid revelations that he rejected a suggestion to convene a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump last year.According to court filings unsealed this week, Trump campaign foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos suggested at a March 2016 meeting that he could use his connections to set up a meeting between Putin and Trump with the then-GOP candidate's national security team. An Instagram picture on Trump's account shows Sessions attended the meeting at which Papadopoulos made the suggestion.After Trump declined to rule out the idea, Sessions weighed in and rejected the proposed meeting, according to a person who attended. 799

Bad actors online are gearing up for the election.Experts with the cyber security company Check Point are warning that before, during and after Election Day, you could see clever campaigns to cast doubt on accuracy and results of the election.“You know, in contrast to previous elections, where it's been about very targeted looking to gain access to things, we really think from what we've seen from a research perspective is that it will be a larger attempt to create disruption versus anything else,” said Mark Ostrowski with Check Point.The software company is warning of a flood of memes on social media. They say the goal is to get so many going and people sharing them that algorithms and admins won’t be able to keep up with taking them down.The goal is to spread false information or create disruption.Check Point is sounding the alarm so people can educate themselves and not spread these.“We even have some of our researchers and instant response folks have even seen some evidence or some type of reliable information where regardless of who wins, there are certain mean themes that are going to be saying, hey, this, this is who the victor is regardless of what the actual results are to again to create this indecision To create this division,” said Ostrowski.Obviously, you can simply report an image on any social media site and only share credible sources on election information. 1405

Automakers are racing to develop driverless cars, putting increasingly complex technology on the road despite concerns from safety experts and the National Transportation Safety Board about a lack of regulations.Unlike rules for the design of a seatbelt or airbag, the federal guidelines for automated vehicle systems are voluntary. The U.S. Department of Transportation says keeping rules at a minimum will speed up the introduction of life-saving technology, a goal made all the more urgent as traffic deaths climbed again last year to 37,461, with 94 percent of those caused by human error.That lack of mandatory rules for self-driving cars has given automakers and technology companies the green light to police themselves, said Jackie Gillan, president of Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety. The group is calling for the government to issue mandatory safety standards for driverless cars.“Before we introduce this technology we need to have some assurance and accountability by the industry that this technology is not going to kill or injure consumers,” Gillan said.The National Transportation Safety Board makes recommendations after investigating major transportation incidents. The board recently called on DOT to issue new safety rules after its investigation of a May 2016 fatal crash of a Tesla Model S operating on autopilot near Williston, Fla. The Tesla slammed into a tractor-trailer, its cameras and automatic emergency braking system failing to spot the blank side of the truck against the white sky.It was the first known deadly wreck of a car driving with that level of automated sophistication. The NTSB said the driver relied too heavily on the car’s traffic-aware cruise control system and autosteering feature, but also blamed Tesla’s autopilot for allowing the driver to not interact with the car for prolonged periods of time.Investigators found the driver had his hands on the wheel for only 25 seconds during the 37 minutes the car was on autopilot. After the crash, Tesla updated its software that requires drivers touch the wheel every so often when the car is driving itself to ensure a human is paying attention to the road. Now if a driver repeatedly fails to touch the wheel, he or she will “strike out” and cause the car to slow down and stop in its lane with its hazard lights on, disabling autopilot for the remainder of the trip. 2378

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