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The roaring American economy will probably sink into a recession before President Trump stands for re-election in 2020.At least that's the view of Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor who predicted the 2008 financial crisis."The probability of a recession prior to the next presidential election would be relatively high, 70% or something like that," Dalio said on Wednesday evening during an appearance at the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics.  471

The Republican mayor of a Kansas town resigned on Tuesday saying that she "no longer felt safe" in the position due to threats she received while attempting to institute a mask mandate.Dodge City Mayor Joyce Warshaw submitted a letter informing the city of her immediate resignation on Tuesday, according to the city's website.According to the Washington Post, Warshaw was thrust into the national spotlight last Friday, when USA Today published a feature story on Dodge City's struggle to contain COVID-19. According to the article, 1 in 10 people in the town of 27,000 had contracted the virus by the time Warshaw instituted the mask mandate on Nov. 16.Though at least a dozen people in the small town had died, USA Today reported that the local police department chose not to enforce the mandate and that few in the city were actually complying with the order.But Warshaw says that Dodge City's defiance went beyond ignoring the rules. She told the Washington Post on Tuesday that threats toward her and her family prompted her resignation."They were loud, and they were aggressive, and they frightened me and my family," Warshaw told the Post. "There's a strong part of me that wants to say they are only words. But people are angry right now, and I don't know that for sure."Warshaw said she received numerous anonymous voicemails from angry constituents."...the messages grew more frequent and aggressive," the Post reported. "Burn in hell. Get murdered. One person simply wrote, 'We're coming for you.'"Warshaw, who was serving in her second stint as the town's mayor, said in her resignation letter that it was the threats that led to her stepping down."Life has dealt out many challenges in our world that have perhaps caused many people to act inappropriately but I do not feel safe in this position anymore and am hopeful in removing myself this anger, accusations and abuse will not fall on anyone else and will calm down," she wrote.Warshaw isn't the first public official to resign amid threats during the COVID-19 pandemic. In June, Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton submitted her resignation after leading the state's fight against the virus for several months.While Acton stated in her resignation letter that she was seeking to spend more time with her family, she regularly received threats from Ohioans angered by public health measures she took to prevent the spread of the virus. Protesters even accosted Acton at her home.In September, hours after Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine named Dr. Joan Duwve as Acton's replacement, Duwve removed herself from consideration for "personal reasons." 2625

The suspect in the deadly terror attack in New York wasn't only a driver for Uber. He also worked for its rival Lyft.Lyft said late Wednesday that Sayfullo Saipov drove for its ride-hailing app in the past but that it deactivated his account as soon as he was identified as a suspect in the attack.Saipov, a 29-year-old from Uzbekistan who was living in New Jersey, has been charged with federal terrorism offenses in connection with Tuesday's attack in Manhattan in which eight people were killed.Uber said Tuesday that Saipov started driving for it in New Jersey just over six months ago, making more than 1,400 trips. It also banned him from its platform after the attack.Lyft didn't provide details on how long Saipov drove for its app or how many trips he made. It's not unusual for drivers to work for both companies.Saipov's case is drawing renewed attention to the background checks that ride-hailing companies carry out on their drivers.Records show Saipov received multiple traffic citations in the past, including failure to equip a motor vehicle carrier with or maintain a required brake system.Both Uber and Lyft said they hadn't come across any complaints about Saipov's safety as a driver for them.New Jersey rules for ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft require the companies to conduct criminal background checks, which are usually outsourced to specialist firms. Convictions for crimes like reckless driving automatically disqualify a driver.Uber applies different criteria for background checks depending on state regulations. In general, drivers cannot have more than three minor moving violations, such as speeding tickets, in the past three years.Lyft's website says potential drivers are screened for "driving incidents" but doesn't specify what would disqualify them.Both Uber and Lyft say they are in contact with law enforcement authorities over the New York attack."Our thoughts are with those affected by this tragic act," Lyft said. 1999

The US stock market sank deeper into the red following sluggish economic reports on Monday and bad news from a couple of blue-chip giants.The Dow fell 600 points by late afternoon, or 2.6%. The S&P 500 lost 2.6% and retreated to its lowest level of the year. And the Nasdaq joined the Dow & S&P 500 in negative territory for 2018. All three indexes have plunged about 7% so far this December.The Dow closed down 507 points for the day.And the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks tumbled into a bear market, marking a 20% decline from the record highs notched in late August.A weaker reading from the New York Federal Reserve about manufacturing in the Empire State and a drop in confidence from the nation's homebuilders weighed on the markets."Investors are zeroing in on this idea of slower growth for 2019," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. "More people are worried about a recession in late 2019 or 2020."The political noise in Washington isn't helping either. President Trump, in a tweet Monday morning, repeated his criticism of the Federal Reserve for its recent rate hikes. The Fed meets Wednesday and is widely expected to raise rates again.But Trump tweeted that "it is incredible that with a very strong dollar and virtually no inflation, the outside world blowing up around us, Paris is burning and China way down, the Fed is even considering yet another interest rate hike. Take the Victory!"The Fed is supposed to be politically independent. Any evidence that it might be swayed by attacks from Trump could unnerve the markets."If the Fed doesn't raise rates it will look like it's succumbing to the bullying of Trump's tweets," Arone said.But Nancy Perez, managing director at Boston Private, said the Fed is likely to slow down its pace of rate hikes in 2019 simply because the economy is slowing, not because of pressure from Trump.Perez added that the recent market turmoil is justified because investors are readjusting to this fact."We have been getting a bump in profit margins due to lower taxes but the earnings growth itself is not sustainable," Perez said. "Projections will come down and volatility will continue." 2247

The Trump administration plans to announce the long-anticipated federal rule officially banning bump stocks in the coming days, according to US officials familiar with the matter.Bump stocks gained national attention last year after a gunman in Las Vegas rigged his weapons with the devices to fire on concertgoers, killing 58 people. President Donald Trump vowed to outlaw the devices soon after the tragedy, and some lawmakers on Capitol Hill urged him to back a permanent legislative fix.But opposition from lawmakers and the National Rifle Association ultimately made a regulatory change the only realistic path forward to accomplishing the President's goal.The devices make it easier to fire rounds from a semi-automatic weapon by harnessing the gun's recoil to "bump" the trigger faster -- an operation that caused officials at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives during the Obama administration to conclude that it's merely a gun accessory or firearm part, not subject to federal regulation.At Trump's direction, however, the Justice Department submitted a proposed final rule earlier this year that upended the Obama-era interpretation, and concluded that bump-fire stocks, "slide-fire" devices, and devices with certain similar characteristics all fall within the prohibition on machine guns by allowing a "shooter of a semiautomatic firearm to initiate a continuous firing cycle with a single pull of the trigger," and therefore, they are illegal under federal law.Under the new rule, bump stock owners would be required to destroy or surrender the devices to authorities. Members of the public will be given 90 days to turn in or otherwise discard their bump stocks, according to a source familiar with the final rule."Bump stocks turn semiautomatic guns into illegal machine guns. This final rule sends a clear message: Illegal guns have no place in a law-and-order society, and we will continue to vigorously enforce the law to keep these illegal weapons off the street," a senior Justice Department official told CNN Wednesday.Republican lawmakers, who are typically opposed to federal agencies writing regulations to accomplish what Congress hasn't directly legislated, had insisted that the Justice Department and ATF write a new regulation. Whereas some Democrats, such as Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, have repeatedly cautioned that such a ban would likely result in lawsuits given ATF's earlier interpretation.ATF Acting Director Thomas Brandon acknowledged in a Senate hearing this summer that he has been advised that banning bump fire stocks through executive regulation could lead to court challenges that would delay the implementation of a ban.Trump said last month he told the NRA "bump stocks are gone," but how the group responds to the final rule remains to be seen. A spokesperson for the NRA said in October 2017 that the ATF "should review bump-fire stocks to ensure they comply with federal law," but made clear it opposed the broader gun-control legislation raised by some in Congress.In June, Slide Fire Solutions, the Texas company that invented the bump-fire stock device and was its lead manufacturer, announced on its website that it would stop taking orders for its products and would shut down its website.The company, however, directs buyers to RW Arms, an arms dealer also based in Texas, which appears to be selling the remainder of Slide Fire's inventory. RW Arms was advertising for bump fire stocks made by Slide Fire as recently as this week, when they offered a Cyber Monday sale on the product. Slide Fire has not responded to repeated requests for comment about any potential litigation over a federal rule banning bump stocks.The-CNN-Wire 3725