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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

Now that the conventions are over, what will happen next with the campaigns? RALLIES & TRAVEL TO SWING-STATESIn-person rallies in arenas do not appear to be happening this election season. While Democrats have been skeptical about them for months, President Donald Trump's team has also accepted the reality of the pandemic in recent weeks. That does not mean an end to travel however. "The one thing I can guarantee you is the president will continue to travel to these states," Marc Lotter, a longtime aide to Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, said. For now, Trump is planning on holding stops at airports, like today's visit to New Hampshire. Campaign aides also say he is open to more in-person visits to places like diners. As for the Biden campaign, they are committed to virtually campaigning -- for now. "We are keeping our supporters, our staff safe, but we are still getting the vice president’s message out to voters," TJ Tucklo told Scripps National Political Editor Joe St. George recently. However, during a virtual fundraiser on Thursday, Biden hinted about getting out to swing states after Labor Day in a responsibly way. 1155

NPR's senior vice president of news Michael Oreskes stepped down on Wednesday amid allegations of sexual harassment in his past.NPR CEO Jarl Mohn said he asked Oreskes "for his resignation because of inappropriate behavior."Oreskes admitted to wrongdoing in an internal memo obtained by CNN."I am deeply sorry to the people I hurt. My behavior was wrong and inexcusable, and I accept full responsibility," Oreskes wrote."To my colleagues, I am grateful for every minute I've had to work with each of you," he wrote. "NPR has an important job to do. Public radio matters so much and I will always be your supporter."Oreskes is a nationally recognized leader in the journalism profession. Before joining NPR in 2015, he was a vice president and senior managing editor at the Associated Press.His departure is the latest example of the "Weinstein effect" -- with newfound attention on the issue of sexual harassment in the workplace. In the four weeks since The New York Times published its investigation into movie mogul Harvey Weinstein's misconduct, prominent men in other industries have also come under scrutiny.Oreskes came under pressure to step down after The Washington Post reported that he allegedly made unwanted sexual advances toward two journalists who were seeking jobs at The New York Times two decades ago.At least one of the accusers came forward in the wake of the Weinstein scandal.Both accusers told the Post that Oreskes unexpectedly kissed them during career-oriented business meetings while he was working as the Times' Washington bureau chief.After the Post story came out, a third accuser, who currently works at NPR, said she filed a complaint about him to NPR's human resources department in October 2015, according to NPR's own reporting. The employee's complaint said Oreskes "hijacked a career counseling session into a three-hour-long dinner that delved into deeply personal territory" and included mentions of sex with a former girlfriend.The network, at the time, rebuked Oreskes and informed other executives at the company after the complaint was filed, according to NPR's reporting.After the Post story was published on Tuesday, NPR placed Oreskes on "administrative leave."In a Wednesday morning memo to staff, hours before Oreskes stepped down, NPR CEO Jarl Mohn stressed that the company was taking the allegations seriously."I'm writing to share that I've asked Vice President of News Programming and Operations Chris Turpin to take on interim leadership of the newsroom," Mohn said. "Starting today, Chris will serve in the capacity of the Senior Vice President of News for NPR and oversee both strategic direction and day to day operations related to our journalism."Mohn also urged staff to contact human resources, the legal department, or his office directly "if you believe you have experienced or are aware of any incidence of harassment or other inappropriate behavior." 2925

Oprah Winfrey has pledged to donate 0,000 to March for Our Lives, a rally formed following a deadly school shooting in Florida that aims for increased gun control and school safety measures. Oprah's donation comes after George and Amal Clooney announced they are donating 0,000 to the cause. The couple also said they would also join students from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School for the rally on March 24 in the nation's capital.Related: Students after Florida shooting: You're either with us or against usOne Hollywood power couple just said they'll be at March for Our Lives17 dead in south Florida school shooting, 19-year-old suspect held without bond 705

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - Loved ones are mourning the COVID-related death of an Oceanside grandfather who worked security on the Sprinter train.Matthys Kemp, 67, first became sick around mid-September."A cough and fever. Just thought he was coming down with a bug," said daughter Rinali HillNot long after, his symptoms got worse. Hill says on September 20th, he ended up in the ER."They admitted him. He had double pneumonia and COVID," said Hill.After two weeks on oxygen, Kemp was placed on a ventilator and sedated. He developed a blood clot in his leg and kidney issues.On November 1, Kemp, a father of two and grandfather of three, passed away."Just glad he's not in pain anymore," said a tearful Hill.Hill says her father was kind, generous and well-liked."He definitely had a huge smile and huge heart for everybody," said Hill.Hill says Kemp worked with the North County Transit District for the past decade, including the last five years for the contractor that provides security on the Sprinter train."He loved his job. Felt like he had a purpose, showing up every day in his vest. Felt like it was his Superman cape. Took pride in getting people to their destinations," said Hill.Hill isn't sure where her father contracted the virus, but says he was diligent about wearing a mask at work.His long-held wish, known to his family for years, was to have his body donated to science. Hill says when she reached out to local research facilities, they say it wouldn't be possible because of his COVID-19 diagnosis."That’s what he wanted and unfortunately we couldn’t do that for him," said Hill.Hill is now sharing her father's story, urging others to take precautions."Please wear a mask ... This virus can leave behind a family that can’t say goodbye in person, couldn't get hold their hand. This can happen to anybody," said Hill.Kemp did not have any underlying health issues.A Gofundme campaign has been set up to help Kemp's family with expenses.A spokesperson for Kemp's employer, Bombardier Transportation issue this following statement:"We are deeply saddened by the recent loss of one of the members of our services team at North County Transit District. Our thoughts are with the employee’s family and our other personnel at NCTD at this very sad time."A spokesperson with the North County Transit District released the following statement:"We are deeply saddened about the news of Mr. Kemp’s passing. Mr. Kemp was an employee of Bombardier Transportation, NCTD’s contractor for rail service. He was a valued member of our team and a true supporter of NCTD’s mission and services to the public. We share our heartfelt condolences for his family on their loss." 2687