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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

While many businesses shut down temporarily due to COVID-19, zoos and aquariums couldn’t fully close because animals still need to be taken care of.However, with little to no visitors during what’s normally the busiest time of the year, some are facing tough times and getting creative.“It’s a lot of work,” said Patty Wallace, an Animal Keeper at the Cheyenne Mountain Zoo.“We feed all of them about three times a day, about 40 pounds each of grass hay, about six pounds of grain per hippo, and also some fruits and vegetables for training and nourishment. So they get lots of variety,” Wallace explained. That’s just the hippos, which are part of a new exhibit the zoo opened during the shutdown.“Opening a brand new exhibit is normally hard enough,” said Bob Chastain, the President and CEO of the zoo.With large groups and traditional presentations considered unsafe, the zoo pivoted. “Now, what we do instead is we’re grabbing random people and taking them back behind the scenes, letting them help us with the everyday things we’re doing,” Chastain said.Letting kids help feed the hippos and other animals, up close and personal.“We are trying to adjust and we would like to share our hippos,” Wallace said. “But because we don’t want crowds, we do it in small bursts.”Back in spring, zoos and aquariums were told to close.“All of them have had a period of two to four months of closure. Some are still closed,” said Dan Ashe, President and CEO of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums. AZA is a nonprofit that represents over 240 of these businesses.“When they’re closed they’re not really closed, because they have to continue caring for the animals,” Ashe said. That’s what makes zoos and aquariums unique.“The essential ingredient in success is a guest,” he said. Even with no guests, the work doesn’t stop, which has put some in financial distress. “We have had some that have been on the verge of closure.”Ashe said about 20% of its members are in a weak financial position, so zoos got creative to keep guests interested. “The San Antonio Zoo started with the idea of a drive-thru zoo,” Ashe said.At Cheyenne Mountain Zoo, they made use of social media. “Our social media team, like many around the country, really ramped up,” Chastain said.Now as they begin to reopen their gates, they face a whole new set of challenges. “Almost every zoo in the country had to revamp and figure out how to do timed tickets, because it was one of the major requirements,” Chastain said.Timed ticketing, one way traffic, cashless exchange -- these were all concepts zoos and aquariums had to adapt to.“All over the zoo there are marks that help people stay away from each other,” Chastain said.Even with sold out tickets, the crowds are nothing like they used to be. And many fundraising events had to be canceled or postponed with new capacity limits.“Our guess is for the next 12 months, we won’t have those large crowds,” he said.But families continue to come to see the giraffes, look at the penguins, or feed Zambezi and Kasai, the hippos.“It’s been a challenge, but a lot of fun,” Wallace said. 3105

When Allison Weiss Brady and Michael Ladin emerged from weeks of locking down during the pandemic, they needed new clothes in new sizes — for different reasons.Brady, 49, a charity fundraiser from a Philadelphia suburb, had been pulling back on her candy buying sprees during the lockdown and stepped up the cardio workouts at her home gym out of boredom. She lost 20 pounds and went down two sizes. In contrast, Ladin, 58, of Oak Park, Illinois, gained 10 pounds this past spring after sitting around eating chips and dip.“I’m not surprised. If I don’t work out consistently, I gain weight,” said Ladin, who works in marketing.Many Americans like Ladin and Brady are changing clothing sizes depending on how they spent their time sheltering at home. And brands from Levi Strauss & Co. to lingerie label Cosabella are taking note. So are body measuring technology companies, which report that shoppers are changing their measurements on their online profiles.The trend could be good for clothing companies — new sizes likely mean that customers’ wardrobes need to be updated. But retailers, already feeling the pain of decreased spending during uncertain economic times, are also facing an increase in costly returns as shoppers try to figure out their new sizes.“Anecdotally, we’re seeing shoppers come back into stores unsure of their size,” said Marc Rosen, executive vice president and president of Levi Strauss Americas, in a statement to The Associated Press. “For most, it’s been a long time since they’ve tried on a pair of jeans, and they may be up or down a size.”Some companies are even adding larger sizes in response to shoppers’ gaining weight, or what has been dubbed COVID-15.Guido Campello, co-CEO of luxury lingerie brands Cosabella and Journelle, said that his two brands have been adding more generous cuts of some of its most popular styles in bras and sleepwear in recent weeks because of interest from its 2,100 store accounts. Loyal customers at its store locations are also requesting new sizes while making more exchanges.Size fluctuations are bearing out in data from body measuring app Perfitly LLC. It cites a 20% increase in users redoing their avatars in April and May, compared with the same period a year ago, according to the company’s co-founder and CEO Dave Sharma. That spike is similar to what it sees in January after the winter holidays, he says.“Because it is a huge spike, we think it is because of the weight gain,” said Sharma, whose app has about 50,000 users nationwide. “They are sitting around, they don’t go to the gym, and they don’t go for jogs.”Fit Match, a startup firm that’s rolling out 3D technology to scan customers bodies at malls, found only one-third of the hundred women it surveyed in Texas where it piloted its first program had no weight change during the lockdown, says founder and CEO Haniff Brown. Of the remainder, 15% gained more than 5 pounds, while 20% lost more than five pounds. Brown called this change “pronounced,” noting two-thirds of customers typically don’t have any weight change during such a short time period.Narvar Inc., a software company that powers returns for more than 200 brands, says online returns have doubled from mid-March to early June, according to founder and CEO Amit Sharma. Retailers face more than 0 million in expenses from the additional returns in the second quarter, in part because of sizing issues but also because of buyers’ remorse and shipping delays.Brady took advantage of sales and spent several thousands of dollars in recent weeks on a new wardrobe that included, T-shirts, inexpensive summer dresses, and designer sweatshirts. She also sent her new measurements to her personal shoppers at Neiman Marcus and Saks.“I feel great. My (old) clothes are huge,” said Brady, who hadn’t modeled in years but was recently hired on by a local agency.Still, weight fluctuations may be here to stay as surges in new cases around the country force states like California to re-close businesses like gyms and encourage shoppers to shelter at home again.Lauren Wire a 32-year-old publicist who lives in Manhattan, says she worries that another lock down could keep her gym closed during the winter months.She gained back 12 of the 50 pounds she lost leading up to the pandemic because she was ordering in a lot from restaurants and partaking in social distance cocktails with friends. She says she bought new shorts and swimwear when she gained the weight but now she’s starting to shed pounds again by biking outside.Ladin went to a local Kohl’s to buy several pairs of shorts.“This will be enough to get me through the summer,” he said, trying on his new clothes in the Kohl’s parking lot because the store’s fitting room was temporarily closed out of safety concerns. “I am not buying any more clothes until I lose weight.”__________Follow Anne D’Innocenzio: http://twitter.com/ADInnocenzio 4912

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. - Last Friday was a day for the history books at the Palm Beach Gardens Fire Rescue Station 65.For the first time, it was staffed by a shift consisting of all women."Station 65 on that day, from the top down, captain, driver, firefighter, the rescue lieutenant, the paramedic, every single person was female that day on that shift," Deputy Chief James Ippolito said.The proof is in the picture, which featured Fire Medic Kelsey Krzywada side by side with her female colleagues. She is the youngest woman in the photo, whose ages range from 20 to 50. She said it didn't take her long to find her calling"I was always interested in the medical field so medical field and something super active to help people it seemed like a perfect fit," Krzywada said.She admits that in a male-dominated field, the road wasn't easy."Fire school was definitely really hard. I'm always the smallest one, smallest height, smallest weight. It's hard to keep up with the boys. I trained as hard as I could," Krzywada said.Lucky for her, there were other women before her, like Rescue Lt. Krystyna Krakowski, to help pave the way.Krakowski understood the impact of an all-female crew, even if for one shift. WPTV Palm Beach Gardens Fire Medic Kelsey Krzywada hopes the all-female fire crew will inspire other women to become first responders. "We just thought women empowerment, girl power, how fun to have five women at the same station. It was a great day," Krakowski said.However, it was also a sad day after the death of a gender equality icon."It also happened on a day that Justice Ginsburg passed away as well," Ippolito said.As Ginsburg famously said, "Fight for the things that you care about. But do it in a way that will lead others to join you."According to Krakowski, it's already working for people like her daughter: a college student and a member of the Palm Beach Ocean Rescue."Women can do the same thing men can do," said Krakowski. "You know, we're capable of anything."And now, there are scores of other women and young girls to carry on the legacy of equality."As the years go on, and it becomes more prevalent, more girls are gonna see us and be motivated to go to fire school and EMT school and continue on through the EMS field," Krzywada said.Ippolito said Palm Beach Gardens Fire Rescue currently has 12 female employees with room for plenty more.This story was first reported by Chris Gilmore at WPTV in West Palm Beach, Florida. 2507

With COVID-19 cases spiking across the country once again, Starbucks is bringing back a program that offers free coffee to health care professionals and other essential workers.For the entire month of December, Starbucks is offering a free tall coffee to "any customer who identifies as a front-line responder." Scroll down to see a full list of eligible customers.Starbucks offered the same promotion in March and April, when the coronavirus first spread exploded throughout the U.S. Now, with cases spiking across the country — and expected to increase further ahead of the holidays — Starbucks is bringing the promotion back.Eligible customers can get a free tall hot or iced coffee at "company-operated locations and select licensed stores" now through Dec. 31.Starbucks is also making a 0,000 donation to the National Alliance on Mental Illness to support essential workers who may face mental health hurdles following the new rise in cases. They also plan to surprise 50,000 essential worker customers with "care packages and Starbucks gift cards."According to Starbucks, the following workers are eligble for free coffee: "Front-line health care providers, first responders including: doctors, nurses, public health workers, pharmacists, dispatchers, firefighters, paramedics, police officers, dentists and dental hygienists, mental health workers (therapist, psychologist, social worker, counselor, etc.), hospital staff such as janitor/housekeeping/security, and active-duty military." 1505

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