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BEIJING, May 1 (Xinhua) -- New rules to punish "statistical fouls" took effect Friday in China. The rules, the country's first of their kind, were jointly published by the Ministry of Supervision, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The rules impose penalties for publication of fraudulent statistics or unauthorized dissemination of statistical data. Penalties including dismissal, demotion or unspecified "criminal punishment" face those who unlawfully alter statistics or ask others to do so and those who take revenge on people who refuse to fabricate data or blow the whistle on illegal acts. People who leak data concerning state secrets, personal information or business secrets, or who delay the reporting of statistics, would face similar penalties. The new rules require government offices to carefully maintain and deliver files of criminal cases and quickly release investigation results. Analysts said statistics are not just key data for the government, they are also vital in making decisions about social and economic affairs. Statistics "concern public credibility of both statistical authorities and the government," said Fan Jianping, chief economist with the State Information Center. As the world's fastest expanding economy, China has faced questions about the accuracy of its national economic data. The most recent figure drawing global attention was the decade-low, 6.1 percent year-on-year economic growth rate in the first quarter, which was released April 16. Since the country's opening-up, the quality of statistics has improved. An article on the Wall Street Journal China's website said China's economic statistics were actually very impressive, "with relatively timely, accurate, and comprehensive data published on a range of key indicators". But it also pointed out that there is a political economy of numbers with an incentive at both the local and national levels to massage the statistics. Many China watchers have noted the incentives for local officials to over-report growth to please their political masters. Officials who participated in drafting the new rules admitted that incorrect or falsified statistics have been released at times. Statistical corruption has been found in China for years to exaggerate local economic growth, which is often related to officials' promotion. In April, southeastern Fujian Province said that it handled 754cases concerning forged statistics last year and imposed fines up to about 1.38 million yuan (203,000 U.S. dollars). "As the country strives to cushion the impact of the global slowdown and maintain steady economic growth, they should use the rules as a deterrent to statistical fouls," said Wang Tongsan, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank. Wang also suggested the government should reform the evaluation system for officials and increase training for statistical staff. China's top statistics official, Ma Jiantang, has vowed to improve the quality and credibility of government statistics after foreign media voiced concerns about the authenticity of Chinese economic data. "To keep (official statistics) true and credible is not only our duty, it also relates to our need to accept public supervision," Ma said in a statement on the NBS website.
HONG KONG, July 4 (Xinhua) -- The Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited (BOCHK), the sole Renminbi (RMB) clearing bank in Hong Kong, announced here Saturday that it will launch RMB clearing services for trade settlement starting from Monday. BOCHK said it had singed a clearing agreement with the People's Bank of China in relation to RMB business, and will invite banks and other financial institutions participating in trade settlement to sign a new clearing and settlement agreement. On Wednesday, the People's Bank of China and other departments on the mainland jointly announced the "Administrative Rules on Pilot Program of Renminbi Settlement of Cross-Border Trade Transactions", allowing RMB settlement of cross-border trade transactions for the first time. "The initiation of the Pilot Program is of particular significance. It will increase the source channels and the usage of RMB funds," said He Guangbei, vice chairman and chief executive of BOCHK. Under the Pilot Program, enterprises will also have greater flexibility in selecting the settlement currency of cross-border trade transactions as well as increasing their capability to hedge exchange risk, minimize costs, and boost the efficiency and profitability of cross-border trade transactions, he said. BOCHK, as a participating bank of RMB business, will take the lead in launching a wide spectrum of RMB trade settlement and finance services for its corporate customers to conduct RMB- denominated trade transactions such as remittances, collections and L/C services between Hong Kong and Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Zhuhai, said the vice chairman.
BEIJING, July 4 (Xinhua) -- China did not lose its advantages in foreign trade despite global downturn and could retain foreign trade level above the global average once global economy recovered, a senior Chinese official said Saturday. Yi Xiaozhun, vice commerce minister, was speaking at the Global Think Tank Summit that ended Saturday in Beijing. Though China's foreign trade would not rise sharply as it did in the past few years, the country did not lose its foreign trade advantages thanks to policies to stimulate domestic demands, Yi said. He said China had been diversifying foreign trade and reported increased trade with countries in Africa, Middle East, middle Asia and Latin America. Yi also called for halt on protectionism, saying that protectionism had been picking up and about 40 percent of anti-dumping cases and 70 percent of anti-subsidy cases targeted China. He called for pushing forward the Doha round negotiation, which he believed was key in fighting against protectionism.
BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April. The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending. Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent. China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability. But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption. QUANTITY OR QUALITY? In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery. "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach. "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy." Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably." Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic. For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target. The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable. "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy. "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April. BUYING CURE It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how? "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years. "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said. Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said. Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said. Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s. Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent. "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk." Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax. As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities. "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said. CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE' Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth. Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries. "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach. "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global." Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect. Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure. As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop. It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach. "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said. "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.
BEIJING, June 5 (Xinhua) -- China will continue its massive elimination of backward industrial facilities in 2009 to save energy and cut pollution in its bid to address climate change, the government said Friday. China aims to close down small coal-burning power stations with a total generating capacity of 15 million kilowatts, according to an action plan approved by a joint meeting of the national steering committee for responses to climate changes and the State Council steering committee for energy-saving and emission control Friday. China will continue to eliminate obsolete capacity in key industries, including 10 million tonnes in iron-making industry, 6million tonnes in steel industry, and 50 million tonnes in cement industry, said the plan examined at the meeting presided by Premier Wen Jiabao. The meeting decided to adopt more measures, including stricter energy efficiency and environmental assessments, to control the expansion of industries that consumed excessive energy and discharged pollutants. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (C) presides over a State Council meeting on Climate Change, Energy saving and Emission Reduction in Beijing, China, June 5, 2009. (Xinhua/Pang Xinglei) The government also called for the promotion of recycling and the use of energy efficient products, including subsidizing purchases of energy-efficient air conditioners, refrigerators and lamps. Central and local governments would further increase investment in energy efficient projects. In 2009, such projects are expected to reduce energy consumption equal to 750 million tonnes of standard coal usage. New sewage treatment projects will treat 10 million cubic meters of waste water. The government would also publicize local government efforts to reduce energy consumption, improve supervision and enhance cooperation with international agencies to develop alternative energies and low-carbon technologies. The government has set a goal to reduce energy consumption per 10,000 yuan (1,464 U.S. dollars) of gross domestic product (GDP) by 20 percent from 2006 to 2010. In the three years to 2008, energy consumption per unit of GDP fell 10.1 percent, according to the State Council. That means saving 300 million tonnes of standard coal and cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 750 million tonnes. Emissions of sulfur dioxide in the same period fell 8.95 percent, and chemical oxygen demand (COD), a measure of water pollution, was down 6.61 percent.