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A key forecasting model that’s been cited by the White House and state officials now predicts the COVID-19 death toll in the United States will surpass 410,000 by January 1.The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington released its latest forecast Friday, saying the U.S. and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere should prepare for a seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases.COVID-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to an ongoing tally from Johns Hopkins University.“I would call the surge in the winter that we’re forecasting a second wave,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray in a call with reporters Friday.The IHME says COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia and if that correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in the late fall and winter months.“The worst is yet to come,” warned Murray. “I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern Hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”The IHME’s prediction of 410,000 U.S. deaths by Jan. 1 is its most likely scenario, but it also provided a worst-case scenario. If mask usage stays the same and states continue to relax social distancing requirements, the IHME model predicts over 620,000 Americans could die from the virus by the new year.The IHME’s best-case scenario, where mask usage is universal and governments impose social distancing requirements, shows more than 286,000 people dying across the nation by the end of the year.“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” said Murray in a statement. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”Globally, the IHME predicts that nearly 770,000 lives could be saved between now and Jan. 1 through proven measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing.Across the world, deaths expected by Jan. 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more from now until the end of the year, the IHME says. Daily deaths in December could reach as high as 30,000.Under the most likely of IHME’s scenarios, the nations with the highest per capita total deaths would be the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain.The IHME says these five countries will most likely have the highest cumulative death tolls by Jan. 1:India: 659,537U.S.: 410,451Brazil: 174,297Mexico: 138,828Japan: 120,514IHME says its projections are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as location-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 2977
A cloud of dust from the Sahara Desert in North Africa is now sitting over the Southeastern U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico. It brings increased particles into the air and could cause respiratory issues while many states struggle with COVID-19 cases.An animation from NASA shows the movement of the plume and where it sits as of June 25. Saharan dust plumes moving east-to-west across the Atlantic are nothing new. However, this plume is thicker than normal, bringing higher levels of desert dust to the atmosphere. 519

A judge ruled Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s son Eric Trump must testify in a New York investigation into the family’s businesses before the November election. State Judge Arthur Engoron said Trump must comply with a subpoena for his testimony no later than Oct. 7. Eric Trump's lawyers had claimed his “extreme travel schedule” on the campaign trail warranted a delay. The judge said the investigation and the court are not “bound by the timelines of the national election.” Democratic State Attorney General Letitia James is investigating whether the Trump Organization lied about the value of its assets in order to get loans or tax benefits.“We will immediately move to ensure that Donald Trump and the Trump Organization comply with the court’s order and submit financial records related to our investigation," James said. "Further, Eric Trump will no longer be able to delay his interview and will be sitting down with investigators in my office no later than October 7. To be clear, no entity or individual is allowed to dictate how or when our investigation will proceed or set the parameters of a lawful investigation. The court’s order today makes clear that no one is above the law, not even an organization or an individual with the name Trump.” 1274
A large sports complex that was being used to shelter more than 5,000 migrants in Tijuana has been closed "due to health issues," according to Mexican officials.Pictures posted to the Facebook page of the Tijuana mayor's office showed officials with face masks cordoning off the entrance of the Benito Juarez Sports Complex on Friday.The complex, which had become Tijuana's main facility for sheltering migrants trying to reach the US border, was closed "due to the poor sanitary conditions," a statement from the office of Tijuana's mayor, Juan Manuel Gastélum read.CNN crews visiting the complex last week found squalid conditions, including open sewage drains.Rodolfo Olimpo, a representative from Baja California state's Special Committee on Migration Issues, told CNN last week the complex was more than three times over its capacity.Since Thursday, Mexican officials have been transferring migrants from the complex to a new shelter that is further away from the border in the eastern part of the city in an area known as El Barretal.Most of the migrants staying at the complex had left as of Sunday, but CNN crews there observed several dozen migrants staying in tents outside the gate. 1201
A historic and disproportionate number of women have left the workforce since the start of the pandemic, and new studies are showing many more are still considering downshifting their career.“I had just found another position that I was going to start part-time in addition to the one I had, and I was hoping to build my career with that,” said Ashley Stewart in Virginia.Stewart is a mother of three young children, who at the beginning of the year was hoping to transition to full-time work as an occupational therapist. However, when the pandemic hit, she had to reevaluate what was best for her family.“I switched to doing just a couple of virtual sessions on my computer during the week,” said Stewart. "It ended up that it was just too much to handle here, with the kids screaming in the background or climbing on me while I am trying, so I ended up stopping altogether.”It was a bittersweet decision. She was sad to halt a blossoming career, but grateful her family could afford to make that decision. She felt it was safer for her children and worth the sacrifice on her end. Stewart’s decision has become a common one for women across the country. The latest data from the Department of Labor shows that between August and September, 865,000 women dropped out of the labor force, compared to 216,000 men. That is essentially women dropping out of the workforce four time faster than men.“The number of women who have left is startling,” said C. Nicole Mason. “Because at the beginning of the year, we were celebrating the fact that women were 50% of the workforce, so we have lost significant gains since then.”Mason is the president and CEO of the Institute for Women’s Policy Research.“We can draw the direct line between the lack of childcare and daycare closures to women exiting,” said Mason.Experts, like Mason, are concerned a decade or more of women’s equality and progress in the workforce could be erased, if women continue to drop out of the labor force at this rate.“Employers have a role to play by making sure workplace policies are flexible, providing access to childcare,” said Mason. “The federal government has a role to play by instituting a national care infrastructure that will do more to keep women in the workforce by making sure they have childcare and other supports."Many companies have begun to offer more flexibility during the pandemic, but the data indicates more may need to be done. In terms of government responding to this disproportionate loss of women in the workforce, the childcare industry has been calling on Congress for funding for weeks. The industry’s plea is not only to save providers but to support women needing their service to go back to work. Congress has not been able to make true progress toward a new stimulus package, for months now.In addition to the disproportionate number of women who have already left the workforce, a new study shows another one in four women are considering leaving or downshifting their careers because of COVID-19. 3014
来源:资阳报