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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Sunday morning's rain caused crashes on roadways, damage to construction zones and danger in Sunset Cliffs.One of those crashes had Cristal Ramirez in the passenger seat. "I was supposed to drive for brunch but my friend picked us up and I was glad because I didn't want to drive in the rain," she said.She said as they took the connector from the 163 to the I-8 West they started sliding, "I think we were driving a little too fast because of the rain." Ramirez said they grazed the guardrail. The tires were out of alignment, making it necessary to call for a tow truck."We were like what the heck this is wild!" She said.The group didn't let the accident ruin their afternoon, they continued on in Ramirez's car to Sunset Cliffs.The danger still lurking behind yellow caution tape, draped along the edge of one part of the cliff. From where she and her two friends stood, you could see the cliff carved away underneath the seemingly solid edge."I didn't think about it, I was like 'Oh we're close to the edge.' and we started playing around and I was like, 'Oh we probably shouldn't be playing this close to the edge," Ramirez said when she realized the danger.South of Sunset Cliffs, another problem at the Silver Strand State Beach exit off SR 75. The rain caused metal plates covering trenches in a construction area to bend inward.Crews rushed out to reinforce the plates to make them safe, adding wood supports. An engineer told 10News the construction should be finished by next week, if the weather doesn't delay the work. 1559

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Sunday, The Department of Environmental Health lifted a water contact closer along Imperial Beach. The department said recent water quality testing confirms that Tijuana River flows are no longer impacting the beaches. RELATED: Sewage-contaminated runoff in Tijuana River prompts Imperial Beach water closureThe area was closed to water contact recently due to sewage-contaminated flows from the Tijuana River entering the U.S. The department said Sunday that the ocean shoreline from the International Border to the south end of Seacoast drive will remain closed until water sampling confirms the areas are safe for water contact.RELATED COVERAGE: 701

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The deadline is approaching for millions of Americans to pick their health insurance providers for their company plans.Jeri O’Conner is among the San Diegans who made a change for 2019. She’s switching from Covered California to Medicare. O’Conner had plenty of questions about her options.“This plan will cover this what the deductibles are if there are co-pays cause there are some plans that are zero premiums,” O’Conner said.She got help from an expert, like Tim Thompson. He helps people navigate through the confusing world of health insurance.Thompson asks clients these basic questions: 621

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The future of Horton Plaza was teased in a new set of renderings released by the firm that purchased the aging mall.Stockdale Capital Partners purchased Horton Plaza in June 2018 with the aim of revitalizing the center into a mixed-use high-tech office and retail space. Wednesday, the firm gave a glimpse at The Campus at Horton, showing a completely transformed Nordstrom building from a concrete facade into a glass-covered office space. The building will also see an addition 150,000-square-feet of space added to the existing structure.RELATED: Time's up: Horton Plaza says goodbye to iconic Jessop's Clock“The Campus at Horton is exactly what we hear some high tech companies are seeking in San Diego,” Mark Cafferty, President and CEO of the San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation, said in a release. “The existing open floor plans and expansive square footage of the current Horton Plaza are perfectly suited to the design and layout of modern office spaces.”Another addition teased is an "amenity deck" that will take the current place of the mall's food court. The firm says several food and beverage options and green outdoor space will be added for visitors and onsite employees.Stockdale Capital Partners says the revamp's office space will house 3,000-4,000 innovation economy jobs.RELATED: As other Horton Plaza stops hang on, Regal movie theater closes its doors“The Campus at Horton is the type of visionary placemaking we need to make downtown San Diego an even more incredible place to live and work,” said Betsy Brennan, President and CEO of the Downtown San Diego Partnership. “Moving this project forward with expediency will benefit our entire community and promote its economic vitality.”The city's Economic Development and Intergovernmental Relations committee will consider the plan during their Thursday meeting. Stockdale Capital Partners hopes to begin construction later this year, with plans to complete the overhaul in 2020. 1996

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