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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

OTAY MESA, Calif (KGTV) - A peace gathering was held Saturday night for the family of Maribel Ibanez, the woman shot and killed at an Otay Mesa Church's Chicken.About 100 people lent support at the gathering, telling Maribel's mother, Emma Carla Merino, she wasn't alone.Maribel Ibanez and two male employees were shot Nov. 6 by a man who has yet to be found. The two male victims survived.At Saturday's gathering, a mural was painted of a flying candle with the name Maribel in script underneath. People spoke of love conquering violence. Musicians played, flowers and candles were passed out, and there were prayers."I feel hurt but I feel peace because she is already resting," Merino said. Her family found some closure after Maribel's burial Saturday afternoon.RELATED COVERAGE:Worker dead, two employees shot at Church’s Chicken in Otay Me

OCEANSIDE, Calif. (KGTV) - Oceanside could be getting a new active sports complex, complete with a man-made wave pool, perfect for surfing competitions, according to Mayor Peter Weiss. The idea is in it's beginning stages, no formal paperwork has been submitted to the city clerk. 10News spoke with her Wednesday and she said the developer, Zephyer Partners, has been talking with council members.Neighbors have already been hearing construction equipment hacking away at the remains of the drive-in that operated before the swap meet took over."When I was driving by and I saw you standing here I thought I need to find out because she probably knows more than I do," Neighbor Liz Lewellen said.She said the neighborhood has been wondering what could happen to the lot. Mayor Weiss told 10News the developer gave him this pitch, "n active sports complex, there would be a BMX track, a climbing wall, things like that, it would also have a hotel and then sports oriented retail." He also described a wave pool that mimics the Kelly Slater Surf Ranch in Fresno. The facility is state-of-the-art and perfect for competitions.The idea sparking interest in the community. Lewellen was shocked and excited when she heard."I love the idea that it's commercial coming in because this area desperately needs more restaurants more things," Lewellen said. "So that's really exciting, I know that we have the skate park up the street and that's been a god send for the kids and the active people in the neighborhood."Thursday Zephyr Partners will host a community workshop at Saint Mary Star of the Sea School from 6-8 p.m."It's something unique, I think I'd like to actually see the plans what they're proposing," Weiss said.When asked if Lewellen would try out the wave pool, "I've always wanted to learn how to surf," she said laughing, "so maybe, we'll see, if it's the perfect wave, maybe someone can train me how to perfectly get up on the board."Lewellen had one concern though, wondering how traffic would affect her drive to and from home.Zephyr Partners did not respond to 10News's request for comment. On their website is this FAQ:PROPERTY DESCRIPTIONQ: What is being done on the site today?A: The swap meet is being demolished and the site is being graded pursuant to the approved Pavilion Project.Q: What is the approved Pavilion Project?A: The Pavilion Project was approved in 2008 for approximately 950,000 square feet of commercial uses such as various retail shops and restaurants.Q: How long will the grading activities last?A: The grading will take about 12 months to complete.Q: Are you going to build the Pavilion Project?A: It is possible that we move forward with the Pavilion Project, however we are considering alternatives that would improve the development.Q: How can I learn more about the project and any potential revisions?A: Please email us at info@zephyrpartners.com to be added to our distribution list. 2937

October's market turmoil took an off-day Tuesday.The Dow soared 300 points, the Nasdaq was up 1% and the broader S&P 500 rose 1.1%. Investors were relieved to hear President Donald Trump comment Tuesday that he is willing to negotiate with China on a trade pact.Markets tumbled Monday on fears that the Trump administration could impose a new round of Tariffs on China.Some experts warn that the bull market is peaking. Big tech stocks are plunging as earnings growth has slowed, interest rates have risen and the threat of a longer China trade war has intensified. The S&P 500 fell 8% lower this month.But Brian Belski, chief investment strategist for BMO Capital Markets, thinks there are many years left before things turn around. 749

Oprah Winfrey has pledged to donate 0,000 to March for Our Lives, a rally formed following a deadly school shooting in Florida that aims for increased gun control and school safety measures. Oprah's donation comes after George and Amal Clooney announced they are donating 0,000 to the cause. The couple also said they would also join students from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School for the rally on March 24 in the nation's capital.Related: Students after Florida shooting: You're either with us or against usOne Hollywood power couple just said they'll be at March for Our Lives17 dead in south Florida school shooting, 19-year-old suspect held without bond 705

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