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While officials in Puerto Rico placed the official death toll from last year's Hurricane Maria at 64, researchers from Harvard believe the death toll was actually in the thousands. According to Harvard's study, there were an estimated 4,645 deaths directly or indirectly tied to the hurricane, which struck the island in September. Harvard estimated a mortality rate of 14.3 deaths per 1.000 people from September 20 through December 31, 2017 in Puerto Rico. Harvard said in its study that it believes its estimate is rather conservative due to a "survivor bias."Harvard conducted the study by performing a random survey of 3,299 households in Puerto Rico. "In our survey, interruption of medical care was the primary cause of sustained high mortality rates in the months after the hurricane, a finding consistent with the widely reported disruption of health systems," the study says. "Growing numbers of persons have chronic diseases and use sophisticated pharmaceutical and mechanical support that is dependent on electricity. Chronically ill patients are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in basic utilities, which highlights the need for these patients, their communities, and their providers to have contingency plans during and after disasters."Part of why there the death toll might have been underreported is due to how hurricane-related deaths are counted. In order to have a death counted as storm related, bodies had looked at by a medical examiner, which required a body to be transported to San Juan, or the medical examiner to travel to remote locations. With a lack of electricity and blocked roads, some bodies were likely buried before the government could count fatalities. Maria is considered the third-costliest hurricane in US history.  1816

While political pundits pontificate about Tuesday’s election results, thousands of high school students around the country will have been hard at work forecasting their own.In a March Madness-style round-robin challenge, students pick states they think will go Democrat or Republican, filling out their own electoral map and entering it among thousands of others in the FANschool Challenge.“It’s something fun. It’s something different that the kids can kind of get a little competitive about,” said high school government and economics teacher Gerald Huesken. “[It’s] friendly academic competition.”Huesken helped start the challenge along with two other colleagues four years ago as the country was gearing up for the 2016 election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Several of his students correctly predicted the Trump victory despite polls reflecting a different outcome. Back then, he says, it was only something for his class to do as they take what they learn in their civics and apply it to real-life situations, but now, it has exploded into an online format used by hundreds, if not thousands, of teachers across the country, says Huesken.“Right now, we’re looking at the different data from NBC, ABC, stuff like that [to guide our knowledge],” said Huesken. “It’s saying it’s looking pretty good for Joe Biden, but we thought that going into 2016.”Students get to draft states in a fantasy football format. They then learn about what is important to their voters, research news articles and polls, and then predict what they think will happen in 2020 based on what they find, putting together their minds and entering the bracket in a nationwide challenge for prizes.“I have both Florida and Ohio going Republican this year and giving Trump some votes,” said Mason, a junior in Huesken’s class who did not want to use his last name. “I also have Michigan going to Biden, leading him to a pretty comfortable victory.”Mason says the challenge has taught him how different regions of the United States approach different issues and how voting patterns change among different demographics.“If you asked me in 20 words or less why do you teach this course, it’s really because I feel like high school students, whether or not they’re voters, look at our political system and our political institutions and feel like they have no agency,” said Chris Stewart, a social studies teacher at a high school in St. Paul, Minnesota. Stewart helped start the challenge alongside Huesken and used it to helped formulate his fantasy politics course that he only offers during election years as a way to make the electoral process more relatable to many students who are not able to engage in the political process because they are not old enough to vote. 2764

William Daniels, the actor who played Mr. Feeny on the 90s sitcom "Boy Meets World," scared off a would-be burglar at his home in Southern California on Saturday evening, ABC News confirmed. The 91-year-old reported to police that he scared off the burglar by turning on lights around 9:30 p.m. on Saturday. Police believe he was not specifically targeted. "Luckily, Mr. Daniels was able to frighten away the person and the Los Angeles Police Department quickly responded," Daniels' representative said in a statement to ABC. "[He and his wife] are both well. Mr. Daniels thanks all his fans for their concern."According to TMZ, an employee of home security company ADT was seen at Daniel's home. Daniels' acting career began in 1952 at the age of 25 after graduating from Northwestern University. Daniels reprised his character of George Feeny for several episodes of the "Boy Meets World" spinoff "Girl Meets World." 946

When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

Wisconsin authorities are urging hunters to be on the lookout for clues related to missing 13-year-old Jayme Closs, whose parents were found fatally shot last month in their home."As hunting season opens on Saturday, we ask that hunters report anything suspicious such as clothing, weapons or anything you think it just not right on your property," the Barron County Sheriff's Department said this week in a statement.The bodies of Jayme's parents, James and Denise Closs, were discovered October 15 after a mysterious 911 call led deputies to their home in northwestern Wisconsin. No one spoke during the call, but the dispatcher heard yelling in the background.When the dispatcher called back, the call went to Denise Closs' voicemail. Police arrived to find the door kicked in, but Jayme was nowhere to be found, and investigators believe she was abducted and may be in danger.Thousands of people have joined search parties for Jayme, and the FBI is offering a reward of ,000 for information on her whereabouts.Investigators continue to follow up on leads, review recovered video from the area and explore digital evidence, authorities said."There is still hope in this department on this case, and the community support and prayers that we have been given continues to fuel our drive and determination to bring Jayme home," the sheriff's office statement said. 1375

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