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When experts look at the economy and its rebound, they go through an alphabet soup of letters, with a “V” shape recovery being the best-case scenario. It’s a fast decline with a fast recovery. Letters like “W” or “L” mean a much slower and painful path forward.A resurgence of more COVID-19 cases is shifting the likely shape of our economic recovery, and having economists evaluate the likelihood of a recovery in the shape of the more dreaded letters.“The fact that the virus has increased in a number of states shows that it is still very much a threat not only to one’s health but the economy,” said Michelle Meyer, who heads U.S. Economics at Bank of America. “The initial stage of the recovery was quite robust. It felt quite ‘V’ like, the economy was digging its way out of what was a very deep hole.”According to Bank of America, about a third of the jobs lost during the pandemic have been recovered. However, the recovery has slowed down into more of a “U” shape, and now data is showing a stall with concern of a higher chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery.“The ‘W’ trajectory would be the worst-case scenario. That would show real fragility on the economy if we dipped back into a recession,” added Meyer.Experts say it would lead even higher unemployment, and more permanent job loss and business closures. In addition, to come out of a “W” or “L” shape recovery, we would need even more stimulus money from the federal government, which may not even improve the economic downturn as much as it did the first time.“Stimulus in Washington provides a really nice band-aid and I think it helped tremendously in the first stage of this recovery but at the end of the day, we need the economy to fundamentally improve,” said Meyer.The good news is unless there is a significant or full shutdown again, a “W” shape recovery is still less likely to occur than a “U” shape.“Our analysis projects that a 'U' shape recovery with rather steep losses and growth this year and rather flat next year and then recovering subsequently is the most likely outcome,” said David Turkington, the Senior Vice President at State Street Associates.A recent State Street study based on 100 years of historical data shows that the U.S. still has 30.1% chance of a “U” recovery, and a combined 24.4% chance of a “W” or “L” shape recovery which include stagflation and depression outcomes.“The real economy I think is what determines the recovery and how that plays forward,” said Turkington.The real economy is jobs, businesses and consumer spending. Providing stability there could determine which way the economy goes. 2615

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — There were plenty of Palm Beach County residents opposed to a mask mandate. Now some of them are suing to stop it.A lawsuit filed Tuesday in Palm Beach County court seeks injunctive relief to overturn the county's order.Attorneys representing Palm Beach County residents Rachel Eade, Carl Holme, Josie Machovic and Robert Spreitzer claim the new order requiring that masks be worn in public places infringes upon the constitutional rights of the plaintiffs.The 37-page lawsuit, filed by the Coconut Creek-based Florida Civil Rights Coalition, argues that the plaintiffs and other residents are having their "well-settled constitutionally protected freedoms" violated, including their "constitutional and human right to privacy and bodily autonomy."The lawsuit goes on to say that the county, having no authority to do so under Florida law, "has recklessly required countless American citizens and Florida residents," including the plaintiffs, "to submit to dangerous medical treatments with well-known risks and potential for serious injuries and death, including being forced to wear harmful medical devices like masks."Palm Beach County commissioners unanimously voted last week in favor of the mask mandate to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus amid a recent surge in cases throughout the county and state.The lawsuit takes aim at the "ridiculously vague" language of the order, which attorneys for the plaintiffs claim forces residents and visitors "to guess at the meanings and be subjected to punishment and criminal consequence."It also chastises the order's exemptions "because it arbitrarily and absurdly discriminates against anyone over the age of 2 years old, and countless citizens" who don't meet the "unlawful order's vague and ambiguous exceptions."The lawsuit berates county leaders for not clearly defining terms like "businesses or establishments" and "persons" as it is written in the order."Are non-citizens included?" attorneys wrote. "One is only left to guess, which is why the unlawful order is void for vagueness."Attorneys for the plaintiffs argue that a permanent injunction "will serve the public interest.""Millions of Palm Beach County residents and visitors are burdened by the over-reach of their local government in a fashion not before seen in the history of Florida," they wrote, adding that residents are "unduly burdened" by this violation of their rights. "The public has a strong interest in protecting their rights and ability to control their own bodies in the workplace and in public."Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg said during a news conference Friday that commissioners do, in fact, have the constitutional authority to mandate masks."Obviously, those individuals who claim that they know the First Amendment have obviously never read the First Amendment," Aronberg said. "Because it is within the authority of the County Commission to put forward a mask ordinance. They have the authority under state law. They have the authority under the Constitution."The lawsuit seeks expedited consideration because the order is currently in effect. A written response by the county is required within 20 days of the filing.Several studies show that a mask or facial covering limits the wearer from spreading airborne droplets when speaking, sneezing or coughing. The coronavirus can live outside the body in these droplets for several hours and, in turn, infect other people — even before the person who spread the droplets has exhibited symptoms of COVID-19.Earlier this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued guidance that strongly recommended all Americans over the age of 2 wear masks in public, particularly in situations that would make social distancing impossible.This story was originally published by Peter Burke on WPTV in Palm Beach, Florida. 3872

With a population density of six people per square mile, few places are quite as suited to ride out COVID-19 as Wyoming.But in the south-central part of the state, close to the Colorado border, sits a ranch that might offer the best accommodations of all.At ,000 per night, renting out Magee Homestead might not be for everyone, but for the clients it does attract, it offers an opportunity to quarantine with family while offering the ability to vacation with fly fishing, archery, and horseback riding.“The decision was either to open or not,” said ranch proprietor Jeremy Belnap. “Then, we slowly started to get inquiries for families wanting to get away.”Like so many businesses across the country, the ranch had to answer a difficult question during the months of March and April.“We had originally chosen to close the ranch for the season and open back up for the 2021 season,” said Belnap.With 7,500 acres of land to tend to and dozens of living spaces that require electricity, the prospect of closing was daunting and carried loads of overhead.“Financially, we suffer if we close the night with two or four guests on property,” Belnap said. “We have a staff of 45 dedicated people. We spend that much on labor in a day so it can cripple you.”As it was preparing to close, however, the ranch started getting calls from families, some of whom had stayed at Magee Homestead previously, that were interested in renting the entire ranch out.After some consideration, Belnap and the staff made the decision to switch their business model to accommodate the buyouts, allowing them to stay open while offering the families a chance to stay safe away from home.“It’s like we’re quarantining together,” said Belnap. “[It was] a light bulb moment. We took enough phone calls to say this could really make sense.”At capacity, the ranch can house up to 12 couples at a time. At approximately ,000 per guest per night, it requires a sold-out crowd on each night to reach its revenue ceiling, but Belnap says the buyouts offer more revenue with fewer question marks, and it is something they plan to continue once the worst of COVID-19 passes.“It’s very efficient,” said Belnap. “It’s a lot of fun having a family here for entire week, where you really get to know the family and the kids.” 2297

With just eight days until election day and despite attempts at parliamentary roadblocks by Democrats, Senate Republicans easily confirmed Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court on Monday.On Sunday afternoon, the Senate voted 51-48 to advance Barrett's confirmation, which opened a final 30 hours of Senate debate. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell directed the Senate to work overnight to complete the process by Monday evening. According to CNN, President Donald Trump is expected to swear-in Barrett at a ceremony at the White House at 9 p.m.Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, was the only Republican Senator set to vote against Barrett's confirmation. The final tally was 52-48.Meanwhile, Democrats' repeated attempts to delay the process have proven futile. On Thursday, Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee chose to boycott a vote that sent the vote to the Senate floor. And since Senate Republicans changed parliamentary rules to prevent the filibuster of Supreme Court nominees in 2017, Democrats have little recourse to further block Barrett's confirmation.The push to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg stands in stark contrast to 2016, when Republicans chose not to hold confirmation hearings for President Barack Obama's nominee to replace Justice Antonin Scalia for more than six months prior to a presidential election, saying that the American people should decide who fills the vacancy.Barrett's confirmation would give conservative judges a 6-3 voting edge on the court, which could significantly shape policies and precedents for a generation. 1626

When it comes to our cars, the cost of gas, oil changes, tires, insurance, and those dreaded repairs all add up. Many drivers don't realize how much their car really costs them.Kat Coughlin knows how expensive an older car can become."The tie rod, the tires, the transmission went out," she said about her older Taurus. "I think we spent about ,000 trying to repair it."Repairs like that can blow the budget. So it helps to know the true cost of owning a car, not just the monthly cost that the salesman puts on the sales sheet.AAA adds up all the costs and feesA new study by AAA finds the average cost of owning a new car is ,469 a year for 2017, when you factor in depreciation, insurance, gas and maintenance costs.AAA says a lot of people buy a car just based on emotions, looking only at that monthly payment of, say, 0 a month. But AAA says you are really paying 0 a month, on average.The agency says drivers don't stop to think what it will cost to maintain the car over a year or two, whether or not it is off the manufacturer's warranty.Bobby Drake is the head mechanic at an AAA repair shop."Even if it's a relatively new car you still have a lot of maintenance," he said.He says many people add to those costs by postponing maintenance, to save a few bucks now.For instance, he sees them wait for the brakes to wear down to metal, and start grinding. That will require costly new rotors in most cases, he says, turning a 0 brake-pad job into a 0 brake and rotor job."Follow the manufacturer's recommended maintenance, and that will definitely save you a lot of money in the long run."Differences between vehicle typesMeantime AAA says some types of vehicles cost a lot more to operate than others.Assuming gasoline at .34 a gallon, AAA says you can expect to pay the following amounts. 1848