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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The County has announced 61 sites where you can easily drop off your mail ballot ahead of the March 3 primary. According to County News Center, those who wait to drop off their ballot past Tuesday, February 25 may want to drop it off at one of the county sites before Election Day. The drop-off sites will be open during each location’s business hours from Monday, February 24 through Election Day Tuesday, March 3. “More than 1.3 million San Diego County voters have chosen the convenience of mail ballots and that number continues to rise,” said Registrar Michael Vu. “The early drop-off sites provide a great service for voters. They help with the timely return of mail ballots and decrease the high volume of voters dropping off mail ballots at polling places on Election Day.”The sites are located at 61 libraries throughout the county. Click here for a list of locations. The county warns that the sites are not for early voting, but for mail ballots only. Voters can also drop off their mail ballot or vote in person at the Registrar of Voters located at 5600 Overland Avenue. The office is open 8 a.m. through 5 p.m. Monday through Friday. On Election Day, the office will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The office will also be open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Saturday, February 29 and Sunday, March 1. If you've already sent your mail ballot, click here to see whether or not it's been received by the Registrar of Voters. 1457

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The former Imperial Beach man convicted of molesting and strangling two young boys in 1993 has died of coronavirus, the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation said. Scott Thomas Erskine, 57, was sentenced to death in San Diego County in 2004 for the first-degree murders of 9-year-old Jonathan Sellers and 13-year-old Charles Keever.The California Department of Corrections said Erskine died from complications due to the virus at an outside hospital. He was on death row at San Quentin. Both Sellers and Keever disappeared while on a bicycle ride near their South Bay homes. Erskine lured the victims to an igloo-shaped “fort” of brush before molesting and strangling them.In March of 2001, Erskine was serving a 70-year sentence for raping a San Diego woman when newly-tested DNA linked him to the murder of the boys.Erskine also pleaded guilty to a second-degree murder for the Florida slaying of 26-year-old Renee Baker. He was sentenced to life without parole for that murder.City News Service contributed to this report. 1072

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The landlord at a Rolando apartment complex filed a police report Thursday, concerned an San Diego Gas and Electric employee going door to door at the building was an impostor. A mother at home with her young children got a notice that her bill was overdue and SDG&E planned to shut off the power if she didn't pay, according to Jon, the complex landlord.Residents believed the man, who was wearing a uniform and driving an SDG&E vehicle, did not actually work for the company.None of the tenants gave the man any money, Jon said.SDG&E has information on its website to help customers identify employees: 643

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Telecommuting sounds like an appealing idea: no long commute, no office drama, and the option to work in your pajamas.If this is a choice for you, the next step is convincing your employer to accept the switch.Kate Lister is president of Global Workplace Analytics, which develops flexible workplace strategies for employers. The company created a long list of the benefits of telecommuting, including: 439

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