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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The IRS added a new question to the top of the 1040 tax form, aimed at identifying people who make money on cryptocurrency transactions. Cryptocurrency, or virtual currency, includes things like Bitcoin and is a digital representation of value that functions as a medium of exchange, according to the IRS.The question asks: “At any time during 2020, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?” The only options to answer are yes or no.The question is similar to one that was added to the form for 2019 tax filings. At the time the question was on a section used to report certain additional income or adjustments, called Schedule 1. However, not a lot of people file Schedule 1 forms with their return. In 2014, the IRS issued a notice that virtual currency should be treated as property for tax purposes. Tax experts say the move, putting the question on the main form, may signal that the IRS is serious about going after virtual currency investors who under-report their holdings.“In my view, the IRS is treating omitted virtual currency transactions in the same manner it pursues foreign bank accounts of U.S. taxpayers,” Lewis Taub, a certified public accountant and director of tax services at Berkowitz Pollack Brant Advisors + CPAs told Yahoo Finance. “By asking the question on the top of the first page of the return, the IRS is making it clear that any income from gains or losses from virtual currency must be reported on the return.”The question will appear at the top of the 1040 form, right below a person’s name and address.The IRS has increased their investigations into cryptocurrency investments, getting digital currency exchanges to release information about investors activity.Among recent high-profile cases was software mogul John McAfee, who was accused of tax evasion using cryptocurrency in October, according to FOX News. 1922

The Mississippi Senate moved one step closer Tuesday to passing a law that would prevent women from getting abortions after they are 15 weeks pregnant. If the law passes, it would be the earliest abortion limit measured in weeks of pregnancy to become law in the US.The Senate passed a version of House Bill 1510, known as the gestational age act, with minor changes regarding the penalty to providers who break the law. In its current form, doctors would lose their license to practice medicine and face civil penalties. The bill was sent back to the House for another vote, which is considered procedural. If this version passes the House vote, the bill would move to the governor's desk.Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant will sign the bill into law if it reaches his desk, his spokesperson told CNN.After the bill's vote, Bryant tweeted, "As I have repeatedly said, I want Mississippi to be the safest place in America for an unborn child. House Bill 1510 will help us achieve that goal."Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves said in a statement, "Mississippians are committed to protecting the lives of unborn children, and this law will be a major step in accomplishing that goal."Mississippi currently prohibits an abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy unless "the woman's life is endangered, her physical health is severely compromised or there is a lethal fetal anomaly," according to the Guttmacher Institute.In all, 24 states have laws that ban abortions after a designated duration of pregnancy. Seventeen states, including Mississippi, ban abortions at about 20 weeks post-fertilization, according to Guttmacher.Planned Parenthood Director of State Policy Media, Danielle Wells, said she believes the law is unconstitutional. She cited a similar law in Arkansas that banned abortions at 12 weeks of pregnancy if a heartbeat was detected, which was struck down by a federal appeals court."Already, far too many women cannot access safe, legal abortions in Mississippi because of existing barriers and restrictions. If this measure passes, it would make a bad situation even worse for women," Wells told CNN.The bill was held on a procedural motion before returning to the House. The next House vote on the bill has not been scheduled yet. 2254

The parents of Payton Summons, who was declared brain-dead, have been granted more time to keep their 9-year-old on a ventilator at a Fort Worth, Texas, hospital.Lawyers for Payton's family filed a new request on Monday to extend a temporary restraining order that would keep her on the machine at Cook Children's Medical Center. The order has been extended until next Monday at 6 pm, according to Justin Moore, a lawyer for Payton's family.A previous temporary restraining order against Cook Children's Medical Center was scheduled to expire Monday afternoon after Judge Melody Wilkinson of the 17th District Court of Texas denied a request last week to extend it."The parents want to keep on fighting," Moore, told HLN's "Michaela" on Thursday."It's probably the hardest case I've ever had to deal with in my young career," he said. "Just to see this particular situation where parents are just fighting tooth and nail and they're not gaining an inch at all, it's just heartbreaking."Payton has been on the ventilator at Cook Children's Medical Center since late September, after she went into cardiac arrest due to a large tumor in her chest.Last month, she was staying overnight with her grandmother when she suddenly woke up, "screamed for her grandmother to help her and said that she couldn't breathe ... then she collapsed," Payton's mother, Tiffany Hofstetter, told CNN affiliate KTVT in September.Payton was transported to the hospital, and doctors established a heartbeat but put her on a ventilator because she was no longer breathing.She was confirmed brain-dead after a test determined that she did not have brain activity."Brain death, by definition, is irreversible," CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said in 2014."In the United States and most places, it is legally synonymous with death -- the same as if your heart stops," he said. "But brain death means a total loss of brain activity."Under Texas law, a person is considered dead when they have suffered an irreversible loss of all brain function, the hospital said in a statement in September, according to KTVT."Per our protocol and national pediatric medical standards, a second brain death exam was scheduled to take place by a different physician within 12 hours of the first to complete the legal process of declaring Payton deceased," the hospital said."In addition to dealing with the sudden blow of her cardiac arrest and devastating brain injury, Payton's family is also coping with the news that the arrest was caused by the growth of a very large tumor in her chest that is shutting off her circulatory system."The hospital held off on performing the second brain death examination because Payton's family filed that temporary restraining order against the facility. It was filed in order to keep her on the ventilator until they found another hospital that could take their daughter. The family's co-counsel Paul Stafford said last week that the family contacted about 25 other facilities, but there were no takers."Unfortunately, after 25 out of 28 facilities that were contacted, we had no takers. We have two maybes, and those were preconditioned on certain things which may be life-threatening to Payton if performed," he said.Kim Brown, a spokeswoman for the hospital, said in a statement this month, "Cook Children's has been informed that we no longer have the ability to speak to media about Payton Summons. Although the family previously signed a consent form authorizing the release of information protected by the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), we have been notified by the family's lawyer that the family has revoked their consent for us to speak about Payton's condition."Unfortunately, this means that we are no longer able to provide detailed, factual information regarding this case. We're disappointed that the family has revoked their authorization because we believe that accurate information facilitates fair, balanced and informed reporting." 4031

The Justice Department has dropped its case against a woman who laughed out loud during the confirmation hearing for Attorney General Jeff Sessions, ending months of legal wrangling.The woman, Desiree Fairooz, was protesting with Code Pink, a progressive group whose activists are regularly seen around Washington. She was arrested by a Capitol Police officer after audibly laughing during Sessions' confirmation hearing in January.But prosecutors filed a "nolle prosequi," or notice that it would no longer pursue charges, with the DC Superior Court on Monday.She had been prosecuted by the DC US Attorney's Office and had been convicted of a misdemeanor before a judge threw out the conviction in July and ordered a new trial. The government had decided to retry the case after Fairooz rejected a plea deal, and a trial date had been set for next week.Fairooz tweeted the notice was a "relief" Monday night."Just received this, "Governments Notice of Nolle Prosequi" What a relief! Guess they've got enough "laughing" matters to deal with!" she tweeted.The US Attorney's Office declined to explain what had changed."The US Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia yesterday filed a notice dismissing the case involving Desiree Ali-Fairooz," said spokesman Bill Miller. "The US Attorney's Office typically does not discuss charging decisions, and has no comment on the decision to dismiss this particular case."The original arrest happened after Fairooz laughed after Alabama Republican Sen. Richard Shelby told senators at Sessions' confirmation hearing that his former colleague had a record of "treating all Americans equally under the law."Her laughter lasted a few seconds and Shelby continued with his speech without acknowledging the disturbance.Fairooz's attorney said in a statement his client is "relieved and happy" about the result."Yesterday the government dismissed the case for reasons I can only speculate about. And which I may never fully know (though I have various theories)," Samuel Bogash said in an email. "Though as her lawyer I would have preferred a 'not guilty' at the first trial, I'm happy for Ms. Fairooz." 2156