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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has published projections on just how the onslaught of COVID-19 cases are expected to impact the nation and all 50 states in the coming weeks. The data, which the White House has used to help advise President Donald Trump and members of the coronavirus task force, is dubbed the "Chris Murray Model." The Chris Murray Model is made available through the University of Washington website. It is updated every morning based on testing from around the country.Dr. Debroah Birx, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said that the data is consistent with projections used from 12 other sources the White House has relied on to model its COVID-19 projections. "We’ve reviewed 12 different models, and then we went back to the drawing board over the last week or two, and worked from the ground up utilizing actual reporting of cases," Birx said in a White House briefing on Sunday. "It’s the way we built the HIV model, the TB model, and the malaria model. When we finished, the other group that was working in parallel which we didn’t know about, (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) and Chris Murray, ended up at the same numbers. So if you go on his website, you can see the concern that we had with the growing number of potential fatalities.” As of Tuesday, the Chris Murray Model projects that the United States would see a peak demand of ICU visits around April 11 and hospitalizations on April 15. The data also projects that the national peak of deaths per day would come around April 15. Unfortunately, the data suggests that the demand in most states will far exceed the supply for ICU beds. In New York, the number of patients requiring an ICU bed will exceed the supply of such beds by 12 times, based on the projection. In Louisiana, the demand for ICU beds is expected to be three times the supply. The Chris Murray Model does offer some optimism that the United States will successfully "flatten the curve." Only a handful of states are expected to have a shortage of overall hospital beds. It also shows that numbers in most states will begin to tail off by early May, although some states, such as Virginia, could still be dealing with a number of cases well into June. The model also assumes that every state will maintain social distancing guidelines through the duration of the epidemic, which offers a key variable on how the numbers could change. The Chris Murray Model does have a slightly more optimistic outlook on the number of fatalities compared to official White House figures. The Chris Murray Model projects a death toll of nearly 84,000 COVID-19-related deaths into the summer, giving an overall projected range of nearly 36,000 to 154,000. The White House said on Tuesday that it is projecting a national death toll of 100,000 to 240,000. The projection shows that as many Americans will die from COVID-19 in April compared to an entire high-end flu season, even with social distancing guidelines in place. Click 3025

The Justice Department is not bringing federal charges against a New York Police Department officer accused of fatally choking Eric Garner, the New York man whose last words, "I can't breathe," became a rallying cry in the Black Lives Matter movement.Federal authorities had a deadline of Wednesday -- five years since Garner's death -- to decide whether to bring charges against NYPD Officer Daniel Pantaleo. The officer appeared, in a cell phone video, to have Garner in a chokehold shortly before he died. Pantaleo denies that he used a chokehold.The city medical examiner's office ruled the death a homicide in the days after his death, and the medical examiner testified that Pantaleo's alleged chokehold caused an asthma attack and was "part of the lethal cascade of events."Still, US Attorney Richard P. Donoghue said there was insufficient evidence to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Pantaleo acted "willfully" in violation of the federal criminal civil rights act."There is nothing in the video to suggest that Officer Pantaleo intended or attempted to place Mr. Garner in a chokehold," Donoghue said.Attorney General William Barr made the decision not to bring charges against Pantaleo, siding with a Justice Department team from New York over the Civil Rights Division in Washington, due to concerns that prosecutors could not successfully prove the officer acted willfully, a senior Justice Department official said."While willfulness may be inferred from blatantly wrongful conduct, such as a gratuitous kick to the head, an officer's mistake, fear, misperception, or even poor judgment does not constitute willful conduct under federal criminal civil rights law," Donoghue said.Members of Garner's family, the Rev. Al Sharpton and several others met with federal prosecutors on Tuesday to learn of the decision."They came in that room and they gave condolences," said Emerald Garner, his daughter. "I don't want no condolences. I want my father and my sister."Garner's mother, Gwen Carr, said the Department of Justice had failed them."Five years ago, my son said 'I can't breathe' 11 times, and today we can't breathe, because they let us down," she said.Garner's death, three weeks before the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, started the resurgence of police accountability and brought the Black Lives Matter movement to the forefront, Sharpton said."Five years ago, Eric Garner was choked to death. Today, the federal government choked Lady Justice," Sharpton said.The decision means that Pantaleo will not face any criminal charges related to Garner's death, though he does still face departmental charges. Federal investigators have been examining the circumstances of Garner's death since 2014, after a grand jury in New York declined to indict the Staten Island officer. The city of New York settled with Garner's estate for .9 million in 2015.Rallying cry sparks a movementThe "I can't breathe" phrase reflected the suffocating frustration with what activists said was a lack of police accountability after police killings of unarmed African Americans. The phrase was widely heard and seen at 3137

The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to remove "virtual caucusing" from Iowa's and Nevada's 2020 caucus plans on Friday, giving the states about two weeks to form an alternative proposal.The move leaves Iowa -- which had planned to use only the vote-by-phone method to comply with the Democratic Party's rules to expand voting access in the caucus states -- in a particularly tough position.Nevada's plans included in-person early voting, meaning the committee could find the state's plan in compliance without that element.Last week, DNC Chairman Tom Perez issued a statement with the committee's co-chairs saying the vote-by-phone method didn't meet security standards set to avoid hacking or tampering."While today's decision is not unexpected, we are still disappointed," Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price said in a statement after the vote. "We continue to have confidence in the abilities of our vendors to enact this process, but if the DNC does not believe the virtual caucus can be secure, then we cannot go forward. With less than five months to go, we are continuing to explore as quickly as possible what alternatives may exist in order to securely expand accessibility for the 2020 caucuses."Price, who's in New Hampshire for that state's Democratic Party convention, has been meeting with officials to find a way to include early voting in the caucus process.At issue is the use of paper ballots for Iowa, which is firmly opposed by New Hampshire, as that could seem too much like a primary to officials intent on keeping the New England state as the first in the nation primary. Should Iowa institute paper ballots in 2020, there is a possibility that New Hampshire will move its primary date before Iowa's caucuses.The DNC established new rules for caucuses last year, which included requiring an absentee option for voters who couldn't attend the regular caucus. Seven states that used party-run caucuses in 2016 will instead hold primaries in 2020."It is unfortunate the DNC won't allow us to go forward with the virtual caucus in 2020," Nevada State Democratic Party Chair William McCurdy II said in a statement. "Despite this change with less than six months to go before our February caucus, NV Dems is committed to continuing engaging new Democrats, bringing more voices into this critically important process and hosting multiple options to participate in our caucus."Rules committee members lamented their vote against virtual caucusing, citing their desire to expand voting in the primary process."I want to applaud both our state Democratic parties -- both Iowa and Nevada -- for getting as far as they did without any real, tangible guidance from either this committee or the DNC," Artie Blanco, a Nevada member of the rules committee, said ahead of the decision.Accusing Republicans of failing to protect voting from adversaries, Blanco said that "it is impossible to find a technology secure enough for our virtual caucus to protect against hacking attempts."Multiple rules committee members echoed the accusation against the Republican Party of failing to protect voting. While no member mentioned the 2016 Russian hacks of the DNC at this meeting, the issue has reverberated throughout their deliberations over these plans."These states are working hard with the assistance of DHS and the FBI. Frankly, they're not getting a lot of help from President Trump or from Senator Mitch McConnell, who are in fact trying to impede this," former Clinton White House official and committee member Elaine Kamarck said. "Nevertheless, the federal government has civil servants that are still working to try and help the state officials in those states make a safer process."Rules committee Chairman James Roosevelt Jr., recognizing the difficult position the caucus states were in, announced that Chairman Perez endorsed his plan to work with DNC leadership to find a way to make virtual caucusing work in the future."This time the effort was left to the states because that's the way the plans are normally developed," Roosevelt said. "I think we recognize now that this is bigger than any one state's problem. I'm going to urge the DNC leadership to lead this effort following the general election, so that we have three years to deal with it."The committee will meet again within two weeks to vote on final proposals from each state. Should Iowa not be able to come up with a plan in compliance, the committee could issue a waiver of the rules in 2020, which is considered a last resort. 4562

The once picturesque blue waters of a lagoon in the United Kingdom now look murky.On Wednesday, the Buxton Police Department in England took the measure to dye the 'Blue Lagoon' to deter visitors during the coronavirus pandemic.The police department posted to their Facebook page that they had received reports of people going up to the lagoon in Harpur Hill, Buxton, England, which is against policies set in place by the government. 446

The FBI, in a change of policy, is committing to inform state officials if local election systems have been breached, federal officials said Thursday.In the past, the FBI would alert local governments about attacks on their electoral systems without automatically sharing that information with the state. That meant state officials, left in the dark, might be in a position of certifying the accuracy of election results without realizing there had been problems in individual counties. Alerting local governments about breaches, but not the states, was in keeping with FBI policy of protecting the privacy and identities of the actual hacking victim.Now, though, the FBI will notify both counties victimized by breaches as well as the state’s chief election official — in most cases, the secretary of state. Under the new policy, that notification is to be done in person. The state will be notified either simultaneously or around the same time, officials said Thursday.The change is intended to bolster federal-state cooperation, which has often been difficult on electoral issues, and is one of several government efforts to rethink how information about cyber threats is shared and with whom. It may also ease concerns of local officials who in the past have complained about the lack of information they’ve received from the federal government, though cooperation has improved ahead of the 2020 election with concerns that Russia or another nation could try to tamper with the vote. The policy change was shared with state officials on Thursday and made public later in the day. Senior officials from the FBI and Justice Department described the outlines of it to The Associated Press ahead of the formal release on condition of anonymity.State elections officials praised the change, saying the notifications are essential to securing elections in their states. The secretaries of state in Ohio, Colorado and West Virginia issued a joint statement calling it a “good step forward in protecting” elections.California Secretary of State Alex Padilla told The Associated Press that state election officials play an important role in supporting local election officials. “It’s imperative that we work together not just in the proper administration of elections but in the proper security of elections,” Padilla said. “It’s us at the state level that can connect dots if things are happening in multiple jurisdictions in our state.”Federal officials say their goal is to sound the alarm louder and at higher levels of government than in past years, ensuring that information about efforts to interfere in the election reaches the state officials who need it the most and who have the best resources to deal with it. That is especially important since federal officials believe Russian agents in 2016 searched for vulnerabilities within election systems in all 50 states.Though the policy change means that a broader audience of government officials will learn of any intrusion, it does not guarantee that the American public will as well. FBI officials say they will continue to protect the privacy of individual hacking victims, including governmental offices or local elections systems, by not sharing their identities with the public. It will remain up to electoral officials to disclose if they’ve been hacked, or if they are working with the FBI. That stance has been a source of contention between federal law enforcement and state and local officials. The public still does not know, for instance, which two Florida counties were breached by Russian agents in 2016 and members of the congressional delegation said they were barred by federal officials from sharing that information following a briefing they attended.Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said last May that he was frustrated when he saw a reference to the Florida hacking in special counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russan interference in the 2016 election. DeSantis said he signed an agreement with the FBI not to disclose the names of the two counties where hackers gained access to the voting database and that his predecessor as governor did not have access to the information.Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a Florida Democrat, has co-sponsored bipartisan legislation that would compel reporting among federal, state and local officials and to voters potentially affected by a breach. On Thursday, she called the FBI’s announcement welcome but not enough and said she would continue to push for federal officials to release more information when foreign powers interfere with the election.“Our citizens will then be in a position to check their voter registration data to confirm it wasn’t tampered with and to hold accountable state and local officials who fail to protect election infrastructure,” Murphy said in a statement. Another sponsor of the bill, Republican Rep. Michael Waltz, praised the new policy but said he would “continue to press for voters to be eventually included.” The FBI policy does not cover more routine cyber activity, such as scanning for network vulnerabilities. But it would extend to sophisticated spear-phishing campaigns, aimed at tricking employees into giving up their log-in credentials, and other acts that officials see as particularly alarming and think must be communicated both to the county and the state.The policy comes two months after the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a broad framework for how and in what circumstances to notify the public about foreign election interference, laying out general considerations for the government to take into account.When it comes to notifying states, one FBI official told the AP there was confusion in the past about who was receiving information and in what circumstances — issues the new policy is meant to address. The official said the policy is meant to ensure that one party does not hear it from the other before hearing it from the federal government.____Associated Press writer Christina A. Cassidy in Atlanta contributed to this report.Follow Eric Tucker on Twitter at 6064

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