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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — After the polls close on Election Night, ABC News and the other major networks will start projecting winners and “calling” races, in some cases well before the official vote counts are finalized.They’ll do it by relying on data from a New Jersey-based company called Edison Research.Edison provides exit polls, survey data, and vote counts for ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN. The company has provided data for this group of networks, known as the National Election Pool, since 2004.“We know what we're doing is really, really important,” said the company’s president Larry Rosin.In certain races, networks will project a winner shortly after the polls close, sometimes before state election officials report any official vote totals. Such a projection is nicknamed an “insta-call” in the news business.Networks only make insta-calls in races where Edison’s exit polls and telephone surveys in the days leading up to the election show a decisive winner, Rosin said.ABC News only issues a projection when statistical models overseen by a team of mathematicians and elections experts show a winner with 99.5 percent confidence.Each network has its own team of experts that crunch Edison’s numbers. Fox News makes projections based on data provided by the Associated Press.When a race is close, the network decision teams turn to more complicated math.“It’s a matter of looking at that historical vote all the way down to the precinct or county level and comparing how the vote is coming in, in that state up to that point,” said Rosin.On Election Night, Edison has thousands of employees fanned out in virtually every county across the nation, monitoring the vote count as it comes in and manually reporting the totals when necessary. There are other employees whose job is to check the numbers for accuracy.Edison’s data helps networks understand how preliminary vote totals compare to the way regions voted in the past, which is an important metric in an election forecast.“If every precinct was just a little bit more Republican than it had been four years ago, you have a good sense that all the other precincts that are similar will likely be a little more Republican, and the Republican will do a little better than four years ago,” Rosin said as an example.Using those kinds of trends, the networks then forecast how many ballots are still left to be counted, and what kind of ballots those are -- either in-person early votes, in-person votes on Election Day, or mail-in votes.At that point it comes down to a formula, comparing the known reported votes to the outstanding votes a candidate is likely to gain.“It’s a very high pressure project, but I’m proud to say that no network has made an incorrect call since the 2004 cycle,” which was Edison’s first year providing election data to the networks, Rosin said.The company started doing this after the debacle in 2000, when networks incorrectly called the race in Florida between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Rosin said a lot of things have changed since then.“The pressure to make calls correctly really superseded the pressure to call quickly,” he said.This year could be a challenging one to forecast, Rosin said, with so many more mail-in ballots because of the pandemic. Mail-in ballots take longer to process because election workers have to compare the signature on the mail-in ballot against the signature a voter has on file.For that reason, Rosin said it may take a while for the networks to call races in certain key battleground states that start their counting process late, like Pennsylvania and Michigan. 3594

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A Scripps Ranch homeowner who's very familiar with wildfires is now proposing a low-tech plan aimed at saving homes and lives. 153

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A San Diego program has received a state grant to train law enforcement officers across California.The program, Game Changer, was founded in 2016 by Sean Sheppard after he saw large protests break out across the country against police brutality.His idea was simple. He would bring members of the public together with law enforcement officers over a sports game."To get some human bonding time," explains Sheppard. "Because that rarely takes place between law enforcement and the general public."Before, they would talk for a few hours about what issues they saw between police and the communities they serve. After, they would get to socialize at the game.Since 2016, Game Changer has hosted 60 events and continues to grow.The Game Changer model was just awarded a 2-year, 0,000 grant from the California Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training.Once the program is accredited, law enforcement personnel who complete a Game Changer event can put it toward their required training credit hours.Members of the public are needed too. To sign up for a Game Changer event, check out their website. 1134

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - A teacher at Shoal Creek Elementary School in Carmel Mountain is being honored as the 10News Classroom Hero.Throughout her teaching career, Lisa Ransom's message to her first graders has been: aim high and give back. “My goal for them is to see what they can do and to put away what they can’t do and work on moving forward,” said Ransom. In her first grade class, she puts extra emphasis on reading and writing, skills she believes are crucial for the children's future and development. “Knowing they are able to read is one thing but knowing that they are able to read to understand and read to learn, and to write to communicate ideas and thoughts. It’s something that is going to carry them throughout their lives,” said Ransom. Ransom’s love for her students is why Cate O’Reilly, a parent who has had three of her children in Mrs. Ransom’s class throughout the years, nominated Lisa Ransom as our Classroom Hero. “Everything she does is really about building up their self-esteem and helping them navigate through this tricky first grade,” O'Reilly said. Lisa Ransom’s dedication to her first graders is undeniable. But it’s her student’s excitement to learn that motivates her to teach for years to come. “I start to tear up because it just means so much to me. I’m trying to raise humans, and I’m trying to create kids who have hearts who care about others who work together to help each other,” said Ransom. 1445

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- An exclusive ABC 10News/San Diego Union-Tribune poll shows many City of San Diego voters are still undecided on some important races this November.The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA from Aug. 28-31, five weeks before mail-in voting begins.According to the poll, one of the closest races is for San Diego mayor, as both Democratic candidates -- City Councilwoman Barbara Bry and Assemblyman Todd Gloria -- are within a few percentage points of each other.The poll shows Bry ahead of Gloria 37 percent to 34 percent, with 29 percent undecided.Political analyst Kyra Greene told ABC 10News, “At this point in an election cycle, you would fully expect there would be more differentiation between the two candidates, but I think it’s a tough year because campaigns aren’t able to get out, talk to voters, so there are just a lot more people who are undecided.”Gloria’s campaign representatives said of the poll: “Our campaign has completed two polls recently and both show Todd with a double-digit lead. We are confident in their accuracy and will continue to run a campaign that focuses on finding solutions to the big issues facing San Diego."Bry’s campaign responded: “These results illustrate the dramatic shift in momentum since the March primary, when Assemblyman Gloria received 41 percent of the vote compared to Councilmember Bry's 23 percent.”In the race for San Diego City Attorney, the latest poll shows at least half of San Diego voters are undecided, but incumbent Mara Elliott leads challenger Cory Briggs by 10 percent.Several key ballot measures are set to be decided on Nov. 3, including Measure E and Measure B.Measure E would change the existing height limit on buildings in San Diego’s Midway District.The latest poll numbers are close -- 31 percent in favor of the measure -- but Greene said past voter trends could be an indicator.“The most common thing if people are not sure is they vote against the measure, which makes sense. They assume why change something if I’m not entirely sure what it’s about?” Greene said.Measure B would create an independent citizen’s review board to review actions taken by police.According to the poll, voters are showing clear support for the ballot measure, with 55 percent in favor.Greene said, “In part, it’s because it appeals to people across the spectrum of opinions about police accountability.”Ultimately, Greene said she believes results might not be completely clear on Election Day.“Given that people will be mailing in their ballot, we will have even more uncertainty on election night about which races and more questions about how soon they will be decided,” Greene said. 2666

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