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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has published projections on just how the onslaught of COVID-19 cases are expected to impact the nation and all 50 states in the coming weeks. The data, which the White House has used to help advise President Donald Trump and members of the coronavirus task force, is dubbed the "Chris Murray Model." The Chris Murray Model is made available through the University of Washington website. It is updated every morning based on testing from around the country.Dr. Debroah Birx, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said that the data is consistent with projections used from 12 other sources the White House has relied on to model its COVID-19 projections. "We’ve reviewed 12 different models, and then we went back to the drawing board over the last week or two, and worked from the ground up utilizing actual reporting of cases," Birx said in a White House briefing on Sunday. "It’s the way we built the HIV model, the TB model, and the malaria model. When we finished, the other group that was working in parallel which we didn’t know about, (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) and Chris Murray, ended up at the same numbers. So if you go on his website, you can see the concern that we had with the growing number of potential fatalities.” As of Tuesday, the Chris Murray Model projects that the United States would see a peak demand of ICU visits around April 11 and hospitalizations on April 15. The data also projects that the national peak of deaths per day would come around April 15. Unfortunately, the data suggests that the demand in most states will far exceed the supply for ICU beds. In New York, the number of patients requiring an ICU bed will exceed the supply of such beds by 12 times, based on the projection. In Louisiana, the demand for ICU beds is expected to be three times the supply. The Chris Murray Model does offer some optimism that the United States will successfully "flatten the curve." Only a handful of states are expected to have a shortage of overall hospital beds. It also shows that numbers in most states will begin to tail off by early May, although some states, such as Virginia, could still be dealing with a number of cases well into June. The model also assumes that every state will maintain social distancing guidelines through the duration of the epidemic, which offers a key variable on how the numbers could change. The Chris Murray Model does have a slightly more optimistic outlook on the number of fatalities compared to official White House figures. The Chris Murray Model projects a death toll of nearly 84,000 COVID-19-related deaths into the summer, giving an overall projected range of nearly 36,000 to 154,000. The White House said on Tuesday that it is projecting a national death toll of 100,000 to 240,000. The projection shows that as many Americans will die from COVID-19 in April compared to an entire high-end flu season, even with social distancing guidelines in place. Click 3025

The opioid crisis cost the U.S. economy 1 billion from 2015 through last year — and it may keep getting more expensive, according to a study released Tuesday by the Society of Actuaries.The biggest driver of the cost over the four-year period is unrealized lifetime earnings of those who died from the drugs, followed by health care costs.While more than 2,000 state and local governments have sued the drug industry over the crisis, the report released Tuesday finds that governments bear less than one-third of the financial costs. The rest of it affects individuals and the private sector.The federal government is tracking how many lives are lost to the opioid crisis (more than 400,000 Americans since 2000), but pinning down the financial cost is less certain.A U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report from found the cost for 2013 at billion. That’s less than half the cost that the latest report has found in more recent years. The crisis also has deepened since 2013, with fentanyl and other strong synthetic opioids contributing to a higher number of deaths. Overall, opioid-related death numbers rose through 2017 before leveling off last year at about 47,000.A study published in 2017 by the White House Council of Economic Advisers estimated a far higher cost — just over 0 billion a year. The new study notes that the White House one used much higher figures for the value of lives lost to opioids — attempting to quantify their economic value rather than just future income.The actuaries’ report is intended partly to help the insurance industry figure out how to factor opioid use disorder into policy pricing.It found that the cost of the opioid crisis this year is likely to be between 1 billion and 4 billion. Even under the most optimistic scenario, the cost would be higher than it was in 2017.The study was released just ahead of the first federal trial on the opioid crisis, scheduled to start next week in Cleveland where a jury will hear claims from Ohio’s Cuyahoga and Summit counties against six companies. The counties claim the drug industry created a public nuisance and should pay.The report found that criminal justice and child-welfare system costs have been pushed up by the opioid epidemic.Most of the added health care costs for dealing with opioid addiction and overdoses were borne by Medicaid, Medicare and other government programs, according to the report. Still, the crisis rang up billion in commercial insurance costs last year. Lost productivity costs added another billion.Businesses have begun noticing. Last week, a small West Virginia home improvement company, Al Marino Inc., filed a class-action lawsuit against several companies, claiming the opioid crisis was a reason its health insurance costs were skyrocketing.Still, the biggest cost burden fell on families due to lost earnings of those who died. Those mortality costs alone came to more than billion last year, the report said.Members of a committee representing unsecured creditors helping guide opioid maker Purdue Pharma’s bankruptcy process have been calling for money in any settlement to go toward to people affected by the crisis and not just governments. 3225

The city of El Paso, Texas spent the day grieving and paying respects to the victims killed in a mass shooting Saturday. Multiple vigils were held in the city, honoring the 20 people who lost their lives after a gunman opened fire at a Walmart near the Cielo Vista Mall. Police received calls reporting a gunman in the area just after 10:30 a.m. local time.Bishop Jesus Ibarra held a special mass Sunday at La Paz Faith Memorial and Spiritual Center. “It hurts me to see the extent of violence, especially when it’s people who have nothing to do with the events that happened,” Bishop Ibarra said.The shooting hit the community hard. Twenty roses were displayed for the 20 lives lost in the attack. It’s a scene the bishop could have witnessed in person had he followed his usual routine. “That’s my Walmart,” he explained. “Every first Saturday of the month, I go stock up. I’m there from 9 to 11:30, but I didn’t go that day.” Members of the community gather at the vigils, looking for ways they can help.“Pretty tough, but all we can do now is remain together and don’t change who we are as people,” said the bishop, as he wiped away his tears.Perches Funeral Home, which is part of the La Paz Faith church, is working to help the families of the victims. “Everyone is putting their own part, so we are going to be offering the family free services for their loved ones,” said Jorge Ortiz with the funeral home.Ortiz says the El Paso community is based off love and unity, and love is needed more than ever in El Paso. “Without love, there is nothing,” said Bishop Ibarra. “We are nothing.” 1607

The Dalai Lama, 83, was reportedly hospitalized on Tuesday in New Delhi with a chest infection after feeling some discomfort. His personal secretary, Tenzin Taklha, told 182

The Justice Department announced Sunday night a new legal team will take over the Trump administration's fight to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census.The department's spokesperson said in a statement that the DOJ is "shifting these matters to a new team of Civil Division lawyers" and it will be revealed in filings Monday.The spokesperson did not give a reason for the change. Officials within the Civil Division's Federal Programs Branch had been lead on the census case up until now, but they are being replaced by a combination of career and political officials from the Civil Division's Consumer Protection Branch, a Justice official said."Since these cases began, the lawyers representing the United States in these cases have given countless hours to defending the Commerce Department and have consistently demonstrated the highest professionalism, integrity, and skill inside and outside the courtroom," DOJ spokesperson Kerri Kupec said in a statement."The Attorney General appreciates that service, thanks them for their work on these important matters, and is confident that the new team will carry on in the same exemplary fashion as the cases progress," the statement continues.The Trump administration has been fighting to add a question about citizenship to the 2020 census -- a question that hasn't been asked since 1950. The move could impact the balance of power in states and the House of Representatives, which are based on total population. Critics say adding the question could result in minorities being undercounted.The Supreme Court recently ruled the evidence did not back up the claims of Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Justice Department lawyers that the question is needed to better enforce voting rights. 1770