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As the Summer of COVID draws to a close, many experts fear an even bleaker fall and suggest that American families should start planning for Thanksgiving by Zoom.Because of the many uncertainties, public health scientists say it’s easier to forecast the weather on Thanksgiving Day than to predict how the U.S. coronavirus crisis will play out this autumn. But school reopenings, holiday travel and more indoor activity because of colder weather could all separately increase transmission of the virus and combine in ways that could multiply the threat, they say.Here’s one way it could go: As more schools open for in-person instruction and more college students return to campuses, small clusters of cases could widen into outbreaks in late September. Public fatigue over mask rules and other restrictions could stymie efforts to slow these infections.A few weeks later, widening outbreaks could start to strain hospitals. If a bad flu season peaks in October, as happened in 2009, the pressure on the health care system could result in higher daily death tolls from the coronavirus. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has said that scenario is his biggest fear.One certainty is that the virus will still be around, said Jarad Niemi, a disease-modeling expert at Iowa State University.“We will not have a vaccine yet and we will not have enough infected individuals for herd immunity to be helpful,” Niemi said.Fall may feel like a roller coaster of stop-and-start restrictions, as communities react to climbing hospital cases, said University of Texas disease modeler Lauren Ancel Meyers. Everyone should get a flu shot, she said, because if flu spreads widely, hospitals will begin to buckle and “that will compound the threat of COVID.”“The decisions we make today will fundamentally impact the safety and feasibility of what we can do next month and by Thanksgiving,” Meyers said.The virus is blamed for over 180,000 deaths and 6 million confirmed infections in the U.S. Worldwide, the death toll is put at almost 850,000, with over 25 million cases.The U.S. is recording on average about 900 deaths a day from COVID-19, and newly confirmed infections per day are running at about 42,000, down from their peak in mid-July, when cases were topping out at over 70,000.Around the country, a chicken processing plant in California will close this week for deep cleaning after nearly 400 workers got sick, including eight who died. And college campuses have been hit by outbreaks involving hundreds of students, blamed in some cases on too much partying. Schools including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State and Notre Dame have moved instruction online because of clusters on their campuses.Several vaccines are in advanced testing, and researchers hope to have results later this year. But even if a vaccine is declared safe and effective by year’s end, as some expect, there won’t be enough for everyone who wants it right away.Several companies are developing rapid, at-home tests, which conceivably could be used by families before a Thanksgiving gathering, but none has yet won approval.More than 90 million adults are over 65 or have health problems, putting them in higher danger of severe consequences if they get sick with the coronavirus. Many of them and their families are starting to decide whether to book holiday flights.Cassie Docking, 44, an urgent care nurse in Seattle, is telling her parents — both cancer survivors — that Thanksgiving will be by FaceTime only.“We all want to get to 2021,” she said, “and if that’s what it takes, that’s what we’ll do.”Caitlin Joyce’s family is forging ahead with a holiday feast. They plan to set up plywood tables on sawhorses in a large garage so they can sit 6 feet apart.“We’ll be in our coats and our sweaters,” said Joyce, 30, of Edmonds, Washington, who plans to travel to her grandparents’ home in Virginia. “It will be almost like camping.”One widely cited disease model projects 2,086 U.S. deaths per day by Thanksgiving, more than double compared with today.“In our family we will not have our extended family get-together. We will stick to the nuclear family,” said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the few models making a prediction for November.Uncertainty is huge in Murray’s model: Daily deaths could be as low as 1,500 by Thanksgiving or as high as 3,100. In a more optimistic scenario, daily deaths could range from 510 to 1,200 if nearly everyone wears masks. A more pessimistic scenario? From 2,700 to 6,500 daily deaths if social distancing rules continue to be lifted and are not reimposed.With all the uncertainty, most disease modelers aren’t looking that far ahead — at least officially.Jeffrey Shaman, a public health expert at Columbia University, thinks the virus will spread more easily as the weather forces people indoors: “But what level of a bump? That’s hard to say.”At Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, computer scientist Roni Rosenfeld’s team uses machine learning to project COVID-19 deaths. The team’s computer algorithm learns from patterns it finds in state and county data to improve its forecasts.A five-time winner of a CDC competition for predicting flu season activity, Rosenfeld thinks his model’s COVID-19 projections aren’t very useful beyond four weeks because of the wild card of human behavior, including that of government officials.“What happens very much depends on us,” he said. “People, myself included, don’t always behave rationally.” Presented with the same facts, “the same person might behave differently depending on how sick and tired they are of the situation.”Like other disease modelers, Rosenfeld said the virus will still be with us at Thanksgiving, readily spreading at family gatherings. While his plans may yet change, he said he is going to travel with his wife to visit their adult children. They will wear masks and keep a safe distance during the visit.___The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content. 6201
As the nationwide unemployment rate continues to sit in unprecedented territory, the dramatic job loss numbers also mean millions of Americans have suddenly found themselves without health insurance.Experts call it a cruel twist during the pandemic, meaning many people who get sick with COVID-19 may not get the health care help they need because they don’t have coverage.“We have massive numbers of people who are worried about their health but who no longer have coverage,” said Michelle Johnson, who oversees the nonprofit Tennessee Justice Center.Johnson says calls to her organization have increased dramatically in the last few months as Americans are finding themselves uninsured after losing their jobs due to COVID-19.“We’re just going to continue seeing people who are losing their insurance,” she said.According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, nearly 27 million people in the United States may have lost employer-sponsored insurance. Roughly half of Americans receive health insurance through their jobs. And while programs like COBRA allow people who have been laid off to continue their coverage, many can’t afford to pay those costs with no income.Johnson says the problem is particularly troubling in state’s like hers where Medicaid expansion already meant there were hundreds of thousands of residents who were uninsured.She hopes the federal government might consider opening enrollment in the Affordable Care Act to help those who have suddenly lost coverage.Johnson’s biggest concern though, is the consequences may prove deadly as those without coverage now avoid trips to the doctor or emergency room for fear of getting stuck with bills they can’t afford.“People will delay getting the care they need because they’re worried about being a financial burden,” said Johnson. 1804

Back by popular demand, Applebee's is once again offering cheap drinks all month long.The company is offering margaritas for the entire month of April. They originally ran this promotion in October but brought it back.There isn't even a time limit on the drinks. They're available from open to close at every location."It's seriously just - 100 pennies, that's all," the company said in a release."go ahead, put that dollar burning a hole in your pocket to good use and buy yourself something delicious." 518
As more people turn to ketamine infusions to treat depression, researchers issue a new warning, comparing the drug to opioids.The infusions are offered at clinics located across the country. Scientists believe ketamine may treat symptoms of depression by blocking receptors on the brain.At Florida’s Ketamine Health Centers, clinical director May Nunez says they've seen an 85 percent success rate.“A lot of our patients come in, and they are highly suicidal. They are very treatment resistant,” explains Nunez. “They're experiencing high levels of depression. They have one infusion administered, and they come out. I'm basically looking at those symptoms are gone.”But new research from Stanford University is raising questions about using the drug over a long period of time.When patients in the study took an opioid blocker, researchers said their symptoms didn't improve, suggesting ketamine has to activate opioid receptors before treating depression.Researchers say that doesn't mean you shouldn't use ketamine, but instead, that more studies need to be done to fully understand ketamine before it's widely used in the long-term.Nunez says the side effects she's seen have been minimal.“So, what I always tell the patients is, you know, you're not going to get worse,” says Nunez. “You're either going to be in remission, sore or you're simply not going to respond.” 1386
Authorities believe they have found a package addressed to former Vice President Joe Biden that was considered suspicious due to its similarities to other packages sent this week to prominent Democrats and CNN, law enforcement officials said Thursday.The package was misaddressed and returned to sender, two law enforcement sources previously told CNN.Also on Thursday, a suspicious package addressed to actor-director Robert De Niro was reported at the Manhattan building where his production company is based, and its marking and contents appear similar to pipe bomb packages recently mailed nationwide to top Democrats, two law enforcement sources said.Law enforcement authorities are treating the series of bombs as a domestic terror matter and are advising the public to remain vigilant.Devices sent to former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, former Attorney General Eric Holder, California Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters and Democratic donor George Soros showed the presence of a sulfur substance, which could have exploded, a law enforcement official said.The devices are believed to be pipe bombs, inherently unstable, and at risk of being set off just by handling.The FBI's counterterrorism division is leading the investigation Thursday into the packages and the agency says it's possible additional packages were mailed to other locations.The motive is unknown, but the recipients are all prominent targets of right-wing criticism and, in many cases, of President Donald Trump himself. The package found at CNN's New York bureau in the Time Warner Center was addressed to former CIA Director John Brennan, city and local law enforcement officials said.At the White House, Trump vowed Wednesday that "we will spare no resources or expense" to pursue the perpetrator.The-CNN-Wire 1803
来源:资阳报