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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The Gaslamp Quarter Association has plans to turn a section of Fifth Avenue into a pedestrian friendly promenade. The section affected would be from Broadway down to L Street, where the Convention Center is located. The change could help during big events like the week of Comic-Con and holidays like Halloween. “It’s kinda mayhem,” says Michael Carbone, director of the Chuck Jones Gallery. “As far as trying to get from one block to the other, it could take you 15 minutes.” Carbone says while he loves the crowds during Comic Con, the rent is so high downtown, his gallery is moving to Little Italy.Some suggestions under consideration, according to the GQA: putting in street furniture, plants, local art sculptures or murals and entertainment venues. “Well, the safety factor is you can just stroll, you don't need to look out for cars, and we don't allow bicycles either,” said Sue Meek, a tourist from Scotland who says similar areas function well back home. The Gaslamp Promenade project could allow certain hours for vehicle traffic, such as 3 a.m. - 11 a.m. The projected cost is currently million. The association says they have a plan to use grant money and fundraise to make the project happen. “I think this is something that will take us to the next step and for many years in the future to help drive tourism, drive economic impact to businesses and the city. I think this is a future vision that everyone can be excited about,” said Michael Trimble of the Gaslamp Quarter Association. You can take a look at what the Promenade could look like and ask questions online. 1617

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The mayor of Temecula has announced his resignation after facing raging criticism over an email stating he didn't “believe there’s ever been a good person of color killed by a police officer." James "Stew" Stewart's comments went viral June 2 and drew a firestorm of calls for his resignation and threats of protests. Stewart made the racist remark in a reply to a constituent "concerned about our police officers and their sensitivity training.""As you know the City of Temecula does not have its own Police Department," Stewart said in his email. "We contract with Riverside County Sheriff's Department.""And I don't believe there's ever been a good person of color killed by a police officer," said Stewart.Stewart posted a copy of the email on his own Facebook page explaining that he is dyslexic and uses voice text, and that he published the note without proofreading what was recorded."I may not be the best writer and I sometimes misspeak, but I am not racist. I deeply regret this mistake and I own it, entirely. I am truly sorry," Stewart said in his resignation letter posted on Facebook late Thursday night.Stewart's comments brought tension to the small tourist destination city during a time in which the nation is seeing daily demonstrations and protests against police killings and racism. A Change.Org petition has started circulating demanding that city officials acknowledge that "systemic racism and police brutality exist in Temecula and the need for reform and consequence."Temecula, a city of about 115,000 residents in Riverside County, is located about 85 miles north of San Diego. The area is a popular Southern California destination known for its dozens of wineries, hot air balloon rides, and festivals similar to Northern California's wine country.Stewart's biography remains published on the city's website. It says that Stewart moved to Temecula in 1991 with his wife and three children from Oswego, Illinois. According to his page, the businessman owns eight barbershops in the area and that he has worked as a dentist during mission trips to Haiti pulling teeth and conducting eye glass clinics in Ethiopia.The city has not released plans to fill his vacant seat. He was elected to a four-year term in 2016.Here is Stewart's resignation announcement:Temecula StewCity of Temecula, I hear you, I agree with you, and I am deeply sorry. I owe everyone an apology including our citizens of all backgrounds and ethnicities, City staff, and my respected colleagues on the City Council. You have every right to be hurt and offended. My typos and off-the-cuff response to an email on a serious topic added pain at a time where our community, and our country, is suffering. I may not be the best writer and I sometimes misspeak, but I am not racist. I deeply regret this mistake and I own it, entirely. I am truly sorry.I understand that even my sincerest apologies cannot remedy this situation. Because actions speak louder than words, I will step down as your Mayor and City Council Member effective immediately. It has been a true honor to serve this great City and its citizens. My love for Temecula and its residents is beyond expression.”Mayor Pro Tem Maryann Edwards states, “Stew is a hard-working and honest man, and the City accepts his resignation. Temecula is poised to close this chapter, and continue our long-term commitment to preventing racial injustice in any form. On this day of Mr. George Floyd’s memorial service, and on behalf of my council colleagues, the City of Temecula offers our prayers and heartfelt condolences to his family.” 3623

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The City of San Diego is resuming its enforcement of all parking regulations next month.A two-week grace period begins Wednesday. July 1, with those who violate San Diego parking rules receiving written warnings. Starting Wednesday, July 15, citations with fines will be issued.City officials said resumption of parking enforcement is “identified as one small step toward restoring San Diego’s economy.”“We know many residents are looking forward to visiting their favorite restaurants, breweries, cafes, shops and stores, and restarting our local economy. As the City begins to take careful and measured steps to reopen, we need to make sure parking enforcement, especially in our business districts, allows for a healthy flow of customers, ensures accessibility and reinvests back into our communities,” said San Diego’s Deputy Chief Operating Officer Erik Caldwell.Chris Clark, with San Diego’s Small Business Alliance, added, "Like all San Diegans, local business owners have shouldered the burden of our unprecedented situation the past few months. Now, we are finally starting to sense a return to business and life as usual. While free parking is convenient, parking meters help incentivize turnover at prime parking spaces in business districts. This keeps commerce flowing efficiently and supports local restaurants, shops and services."On March 16, the city suspended citations for vehicles violating street sweeping, metered parking, time limits and yellow commercial zones due to state and San Diego County stay-at-home orders amid the COVID-19 pandemic.Regarding street sweeping, city officials said courtesy notices will be given to residents to remind them of a return to regular service. Click here for more information on the city’s street sweeping schedule and map.Information on city parking rules or how to pay citations online can be found at https://www.sandiego.gov/parking. 1925

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The coronavirus outbreak is filling many with fear, anxiety and depression. To cope with these feelings, 10News spoke with licensed psychologist Dr. Michelle Carcel on strategies to get through the chaos."Evolutionarily we are not built for quick adaptation." Carcel said, that's why the reptilian part of our brain is freaking out. "One of my favorite sayings, it's not mine but I use it all the time, is relax nothing is in our control."READ RELATED: San Diego County libraries go digital to fight spread of coronavirusCarcel said mindfulness activities like yoga and meditation bring you into the moment and activate the parasympathetic nervous system, to calm the brain.Her first piece of advice for coping with all these changes to your daily life is to set a schedule. A schedule for you and any kids will bring back a sense of normalcy, and comfort.If you're feeling down, or isolated, find a furry friend. Adoptions and fostering is up in San Diego.RELATED: Where to get help amid coronavirus"Take time to walk your dog, play with your cat. They relieve stress quite a bit, so that's good," Carcel said smiling.Checking on a friend during this time of isolation is also important. "That is actually one of the worst times for folks who are specifically suffering from domestic violence concerns. We must take this incredibly seriously," Carcel added. She urges anyone who needs help to call the Crisis Line at 888-724-7240.Another serious issue we're facing is financial stress, many losing their job from the shut down. Carcel says while these are unprecedented times, we will endure, "here's the thing, humans are resilient. We have made it through a bunch of different, terrible things in our evolutionary process and we must remember that."She advises enjoying the time we have inside, by indulging in a book, playing a board game, or calling someone you love."Just surf the wave, we're going to make it through," she said.OPTUM has a free 24/7 helpline for anyone who needs emotional support, you can call 866-342-6892. 2060

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