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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As states continue to count votes, one thing is clear: the pre-election polls were off again.Pollsters underestimated support for President Donald Trump by a wider margin than they did in 2016, prompting a number of theories about what went wrong and why changes adopted after the 2016 election proved ineffective.Heading into Election Day 2020, candidate Joe Biden led Trump nationally by an average of 8.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. We won’t know the final margin until all the votes are counted, but it looks like Trump’s support was underestimated by about 3.5%.That’s wider than the national popular vote miss in 2016, when the polls underestimated Trump’s support by 1.1%.“Polling emerged from 2016 with a black eye. This is fair to say a second black eye in 2020,” said Jay Leve of polling firm SurveyUSA.Leve said the industry thought it had corrected its 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate.In 2020, pollsters made sure to weigh for education level and include enough non-college-educated white voters to try to capture a representative sample of the electorate.But state polls show it didn’t work. In Ohio, there was a nearly 8-point miss. In Wisconsin, there was a nearly 10-point miss. In Florida, the polls missed by 5 points and incorrectly showed Biden in the lead.“While pollsters attempted to correct for the mistakes that they made in 2016, President Trump was busy hammering home a narrative that, number one, the media is the enemy of the people. And number two, polls are fake polls,” Leve said.Leve thinks that skepticism and distrust caused Trump supporters to ignore pollsters at a higher rate, causing them to be underrepresented in samples.San Diego State political scientist Dr. Stephen Goggin says there are other theories as well.“Between mail-in balloting, the pandemic, between all the early voting and all the confusion it creates, it’s possible some of that played a role in creating the error we saw this time,” he said.Goggin said the pandemic may have made the models used to predict voter turnout less accurate this cycle. Many surveys heading into the election showed an unusual trend: Biden was polling better among so-called “likely voters” than among registered voters overall. Typically Republicans hold an edge among likely voters, Nate Cohn of the New York Times noted.There’s also some early data suggesting once the pandemic hit, Democrats started responding to surveys more frequently, something that could have shifted the poll numbers.There may have also been issues surveying certain demographic groups. Pre-election polls showed Biden chipping away at Trump’s lead with seniors compared to 2016, but Biden actually did worse than Clinton with that demographic in certain key states. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters in Florida also surprised pollsters. If exit polling data shows that trend continued in other states, it might explain about one-quarter of this year’s polling error, according to the New York Times.“Many of these errors are fixable when they find out what went wrong and you can still get high-quality samples,” Goggin said.Pollsters are planning to do detailed autopsies on the election once they have final turnout data and results by precinct. Polling firms will eventually post detailed data from their results to the Roper Center for more finely tuned analysis.ABC 10News used SurveyUSA this election cycle to poll 11 state and local races. The final polls accurately predicted the winner in all 11 races, although the margins weren’t perfect.The ABC 10News/Union-Tribune scientific polls actually overestimated Trump’s support in California by about 4 points, relative to vote totals as of November 12. 3757

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Back in 1960, a young Amos Johnson Jr. was studying theology in Berkeley, Calif.It was the first time he was old enough to vote. Although he could cast a ballot without issue here in California, African Americans in southern states faced plenty of challenges."There were so many Jim Crow laws to keep blacks from voting in the south, all the civil rights in the south were really diminished," said Johnson.He describes the years leading up to the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which bans racial discrimination in voting, as a time filled with protest and frustration around the country."It was a chaotic time, it was a time of great distress," he said.For the longtime San Diego pastor, the right to vote isn't something he's ever taken for granted. He says since being able to cast a ballot for himself, he's voted in every single election he could."I think that's where the power is. Voting is a real privilege, in my mind, it's an obligation if you want change," Johnson said. 1018

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - Coronavirus vaccine trials are underway, but it's unlikely you'll be able to get one before next year.ABC 10News spoke with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, about the next steps in the battle against the Coronavirus.Team 10 investigative reporter Adam Racusin asked Dr. Fauci when a safe and effective vaccine will be available."Well, Adam, we're hoping that's going to be as we get toward the end of this calendar year late fall early winter," he said. "In the United States, two candidates have already started a phase three trial. They started last week on July 27."Fauci said in the next few months, other companies will be getting into a phase three trial."We hope, and I think we can be cautiously optimistic about this, that we will have a safe and effective vaccine by the end of the year, beginning of 2021," he said. "There's never a guarantee Adam, and that's why you do the trials, and the phase three trials are about 30,000 people."Dr. Fauci explained that the government has invested hundreds of millions of dollars - if not billions on vaccine production even before they know if it will work. So, if it is valid, in early 2021, there could be tens of millions of doses ready to go.As for who'd get it first, Fauci said they have committees that advise the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They're also adding an extra layer of individuals from the National Academy of Medicine to complement that decision."The prioritization is usually for those who would benefit the most and need it the most such as health care providers, those who are vulnerable, the elderly, those with underlying conditions including minority individuals who we know disproportionately suffer much more both in infection rate and in serious consequences," Fauci said.But even if the vaccine is approved, the speed at which it'll be done makes some people cautious and even uncomfortable. Others have indicated they are against any vaccine."We're having what's called community engagement and community involvement," Fauci said. "This has been very successful when we had interventions during the earlier years of HIV/AIDS when there was some skepticism in the community about safety and efficacy in drugs. So we're going to get community leaders to help us get out there and be very transparent in outreaching to the various communities, including minority communities, that may have some skepticism to getting vaccinated."The vaccine is months away at a minimum, yet positive cases are still rising in some communities.Dr. Fauci said what's concerning to him is the capability of the virus to be efficient in how it spreads from person to person."We've got to take it seriously," he warned.Team 10 investigator Adam Racusin asked Fauci, while the country is waiting for a vaccine, does he believe school-aged kids should be physically in school.“Well, I think they should be what we call an overriding default position,” Fauci said. “That it is better, and we should try to the best of our ability to get the children back to school because of the deleterious effects to the children when they’re not in school and the ripple effects to parents of having to stop work to take care of them. However, and I underline the ‘however,’ this should not be sacrificing the health, the welfare or the safety of the children as well as the teachers.”He continued, “So we live in a big country, and you’ve got to realize that there are some areas locally where the infection is so low that you can get the kids back to school, no problem. You’ve got to be realizing and flexible that there are some areas of the country where the infection activity is so high that locally the individual people responsible may have to make the decision either to not get the kids back to school or to do it in a way that safeguards the children’s health by hybrid between online and in-person, physical separation, indoor-outdoor, morning afternoon. There are a lot of ways to do that. We have to be flexible. It’s not one size fits all with getting the children back to school.”To learn more about the clinical trials or to volunteer: https://www.coronaviruspreventionnetwork.org/ 4244

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - As San Diego grapples with a homeless epidemic and rising rents, the city's housing supply remains a point of worry.According to the San Diego Housing Commission, the city twice the shortfall in housing than previously estimated. A 2017 report by the SDHC said the region could fall behind its goals by 50,000 units if housing supply followed the current production trend.By 2028, the organization estimated San Diego's housing needs would reach 150,000 to 200,000 units.RELATED: Under-utilized MTS land could be used for affordable housing, report saysThere is a silver lining, however. SDHC says San Diego has enough housing potential to meet its 10-year need if "all capacity sources are fully utilized," and could exceed that need by 30,000 units.Where are these potential sources of land? SDHC outlined them as follows: 876

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — As President Trump toured the Otay Mesa border during a fundraising visit to San Diego Wednesday, he briefly touched on homelessness across California.During his tour, the President was asked about homelessness in California following recent news that his administration was looking at ways to address the state crisis.He pointed specifically to San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.RELATED: San Diego advocates want more from President Trump's homeless plan"And in the case of San Diego the mayor's doing the right thing, he's doing a good job. In the case of Los Angeles, it's a disaster. If you look at San Francisco, it's a total disaster, what's happening," President Trump told a pool of reporters. "They're going to ruin those cities. We're going to get involved soon on a federal basis if they can't clean up their act."In San Diego's case, several options have been used to address local homelessness in recent months:The city opened Bridge Shelters and is set to open its fourth location this month; Parking lots where people living in cars can sleep for free;Storage lockers for homeless people to store their belongings, with a third facility being proposed;City funded program, Wheels of Change, to employ homeless people to clean up streets;Still, according to a Point-In-Time Count by the Regional Task Force on Homeless, there are a little more than 8,000 homeless individuals in San Diego County. That number splits into 4,476 unsheltered people and 3,626 classified as sheltered in the county.Members of the Trump Administration visited Los Angeles this month to tour the city's homeless encampments. The President's staff is expect to develop policy options to address the major issue.RELATED: San Diego nonprofit hopes to house homeless in emergency sleeping cabinsGov. Gavin Newsom and other state officials also sent a letter to the President requesting 50,000 housing vouchers and to increase the value of those vouchers to account for high rent. The letter said the vouchers would help "a significant proportion of our unsheltered population," including thousands of military veterans.The President's full comments on the issue were as follows: 2200

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