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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- Economic forecasters are beginning to warn of a possible 2020 recession, and the impact they say will be felt in the Golden State, according to a new report by UCLA.“Don’t celebrate the 3.1% GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2019,” writes UCLA Anderson Professor Emeritus Edward Leamer. Leamer is quoted in a recent report produced by the UCLA Anderson School of Management. According to Leamer, the data actually increases the risk of a recession at some point in the next couple of years. Nationally, economic growth is expected to slow marginally to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. RELATED: Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since recessionThe good news is that the report predicts an economic rebound, growing again to 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. So what picture does the report paint for California? One forecaster says you can expect California unemployment to rise modestly. “Weakness in housing as well as the slowing U.S. economy is reflected in a very modest growth rate in the U.S. in late 2020,” UCLA Anderson Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg writes. “As a consequence, we expect California’s average unemployment rate to rise slightly to an average of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021. For the entire year for 2020 and 2021, we expect average unemployment rates of 4.3% and 4.4%, respectively.”Meanwhile, personal income growth in the state of California is forecast at 2.9 percent in 2019. But the report warns that income growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent by 2020.It’s not all bad news, however, income growth is expected to rise fairly quickly again in 2021, and is forecast to reach 2.1 percent by the end of the year. There's more good news. The Federal Reserve Wednesday lowered interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession in 2008 to help prevent an economic downturn. 1936

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Hundreds of students are suspended from Greek Life at San Diego State. The school confirmed the Sigma Phi Epsilon and Alpha Phi chapters are under investigation. The school says an incident happened at the frat house on Halloween. They added that the sorority knew about it but did not report it. They released this statement to 10News today: 379

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- First responders late Sunday morning rescued a man from sunset cliffs they say was intoxicated and naked. San Diego Fire-Rescue was called to No Surf Beach near Hill Street just before 11 to perform the rescue. According to the department, the man was exploring down by the water when waves picked up. RELATED: King tide rolls into San Diego coastlineCrews say the man clung to the rocks until help arrived.San Diego police say the man was intoxicated and was taken in for a psychiatric hold. Onlookers could be heard cheering as the man was lifted to safety atop the cliffs. Onlookers cheer as first responders rescue a naked man from Sunset Cliffs. Lifeguards say he was exploring down by the water when waves picked up. He clinged onto the cliffs until help arrived. Police say he was intoxicated, now being taken for a psychiatric hold @10News pic.twitter.com/a1yEeq9rg7— Amanda Brandeis (@10NewsBrandeis) January 12, 2020 954

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — Early data suggests the coronavirus vaccine candidates from both Pfizer and Moderna are safe and effective, but some patients may experience side effects that can feel intense but resolve quickly.More than 37,000 people have taken either the Pfizer or the Moderna vaccine in a Phase 3 trial. Both vaccines require two doses, and side effects were more common after the second dose.Pfizer reported 3.8% of the recipients felt fatigue and 2% experienced headache, based on preliminary data from its Phase 3 trial. These symptoms are classified as Grade 3 or “severe” adverse events because they can interfere with daily activity.Moderna reported more Grade 3 side effects. There was fatigue in 9.7% of recipients, muscle pain in 8.9%, joint pain in 5.2%, headache in 4.5%, pain in 4.1%, and redness at the injection site in 2%.Neither company reported side effects that affected less than 2% of participants in their press releases but more detailed data will be released.Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco, said the symptoms typically appear in the first few hours after vaccination and resolve within 24 to 36 hours.“The most troublesome of them for people has been low grade temperatures, but they go away in many cases without even using anti-inflammatories” like ibuprofen, he said.Experts say the vaccines appear to have a higher rate of Grade 3 side effects than the typical flu vaccine, even high-dose flu vaccines, but they say there’s no reason to worry about so-called reactogenic symptoms like muscle and joint pain.“Usually if it hurts that's a positive sign. That's your immune system actually responding to the immunization so that it's going to be able to fight off the virus in the future,” said Dr. Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology.Both leading COVID-19 vaccines rely on the same platform: messenger RNA. This technique has never been used in an approved vaccine before.There is no evidence yet of any long-term side effects, but they can’t be ruled out either. The fragility of mRNA makes it unlikely to linger in the body but any vaccine could theoretically cause disruptions in the immune system, experts said.The FDA required vaccine makers to follow vaccine recipients for a median of two months after the second dose before seeking approval to detect longer term side effects.“I think that's a pretty good window to see a bad side effect like Guillain-Barré,” said Dr. Christian Ramers of Family Health Centers of San Diego. “It really should show up within those two months after the second shot.”Guillain-Barré Syndrome can cause paralysis and some flu vaccines have been associated with increased rates of it. But the increased rates are still extremely rare: an extra 1 to 2 cases for every million doses, according to the CDC.Dr. Ramers said the long-term consequences of contracting COVID-19 are much more concerning.“This is not a virus that you want to get,” he said. “There are unpredictable effects. There are healthy young people developing clots and strokes.”A study on COVID-19 patients in Michigan found that two months after hospitalization, 32.5% had a lingering cough or difficulty breathing and 11% reported new or worsening trouble caring for themselves.Both the FDA and the CDC are taking extra steps to monitor people who get the vaccine early for any side effects. The CDC plans to monitor recipient’s health via text message for several weeks, including one or more texts per day during the first week. 3548

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) – Four families say a Southern California contractor scammed them out of thousands of dollars. For the past five months, Team 10 has been digging into these accusations. One family says they lost more than ,000. Another family from Imperial Beach says they lost ,000. The contractor denies any wrongdoing. He is unlicensed, according to the state of California.Before he blocked 10News on Instagram, Abel Gonzalez's account had photos of him promoting American Home. 498