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Predicting the outcome of elections can sometimes be easy. Other years, it is not. Professor Allan Lichtman has predicted every election since 1984, using a model he developed alongside Soviet Union scientists.One of Lichtman's proudest achievements was accurately predicting the 2016 election. President Donald Trump signed a Washington Post article about Lichtman in recent years with his autograph and the phrase "good call."THE METHODLichtman doesn't look at polls."Polls are not predictors, they are misused as predictors," Lichtman said.Instead, Lichtman looks at the political party currently controlling the White House. Then he uses 13 keys to gauge whether the party controlling the White House will lose or not.They are: midterm gains, no contest in the primary, incumbency, no third party, strong short-term economy, strong long-term economy, major policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, no overseas failure, major overseas achievement, charismatic incumbent, uncharismatic opponent."If six or more, any six more, turn against the party holding the White House, they are a predicted loser," Luchtman said.2020 PREDICTIONLichtman says before 2020, Trump appeared to be heading to a reelection. However Trump has now lost seven keys.In Lichtman's opinion, Trump has lost midterm gains, short term economy, long-term economy, no social unrest, no scandal, major overseas achievement, and charismatic incumbent."Could I be wrong? Of course human beings are wrong. But my keys have quite a track record," Lichtman said. 1541

President Donald Trump is now setting his sights on overhauling the nation's safety net programs.Trump signed an executive order Monday directing federal agencies to promote employment for those on public assistance.The president called for enforcing work requirements that are already in the law and reviewing all waivers and exemptions to such mandates. Also, the executive order asked agencies to consider adding work requirements to government aid programs that lack them."The federal government should do everything within its authority to empower individuals by providing opportunities for work, including by investing in federal programs that are effective at moving people into the workforce and out of poverty," the order read.The agencies have 90 days to submit a list of recommended policy and regulatory changes.The move is the latest step in the administration's effort to require low-income Americans to work for their federal benefits. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services earlier this year began allowing states to mandate that certain Medicaid enrollees must work for the first time in the program's history, while the Department of Housing and Urban Development is looking into the issue for those in subsidized housing.The Department of Agriculture also wants to strengthen the work requirements in the food stamp program. Currently, adults without minor children can only receive benefits for three months out of every 36-month period unless they are working or participating in training programs 20 hours a week. However, states can waive that requirement for areas where unemployment is at least 10% or there is an insufficient number of jobs, as defined by the Department of Labor.Several states, particularly those with Republican leaders, have also been adding work mandates. Kentucky, Indiana and Arkansas have already received approval to require certain Medicaid recipients to participate in community engagement programs, including working, volunteering or job training, while several other states have applications pending before CMS. West Virginia and Wisconsin recently tightened the work requirement provisions in their food stamp programs.The president is ramping up these efforts after Congress opted to punt on entitlement reform with the midterm elections looming in the fall.The order outlines nine "Principles of Economic Mobility," which are in line with longstanding Republican ideals. They include improving employment outcomes and economic independence, promoting marriage as a way of escaping poverty, reserving benefits for those truly in need and empowering the private sector to find solutions to poverty. The order directs agencies to provide more flexibility to the states, which administer many of these safety net programs.Millions of Americans flocked to the nation's government assistance programs in the wake of the Great Recession and the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. More than 74 million Americans are on Medicaid, while more than 41 million people receive food stamps, formally known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. (Enrollment in food stamps has drifted down from a peak of more than 47 million in 2013.)The administration, along with conservative policy experts, argue that this is the perfect time to enforce and expand work requirements because unemployment is near record lows and employers are looking to hire. They are setting their sights on the able-bodied, working-age adults -- particularly childless men -- who have joined the assistance programs in recent years.The executive order should send a strong signal to federal agencies that they need to prioritize adding or strengthening work requirements, said Robert Doar, who used to oversee New York City's public assistance programs. Getting people to work -- even if they still need some assistance -- is the first step to helping them gain economic independence, he said."People can't rise out of poverty if they are only receiving SNAP and Medicaid," said Doar, now a fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. "These programs were meant to supplement earnings, not replace them."Consumer advocates, however, argue that work requirements will lead to millions of people losing crucial assistance. Putting in place such mandates doesn't take into account barriers to employment, such as medical conditions, child care and transportation."So-called 'work requirements' are premised on a set of myths about poverty," said Rebecca Vallas, vice president of the Poverty to Prosperity Program at the left-leaning Center for American Progress."First, that 'the poor' are some stagnant group of people who 'just don't want to work.' Second, that anyone who wants a well-paying job can snap her fingers to make one appear. And third, that having a job is all it takes to not be poor," she said.Many low-income Americans who can work already do, advocates say.In households that receive SNAP and have at least one non-disabled adult, 58% are employed and 82% worked in the year prior to or after enrollment, according to the Center for American Progress.Among Medicaid recipients, 60% of able-bodied, working-age adults have jobs, while nearly 80% live in families with at least one member in the labor force, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis. Most of those who don't work cite illness, disability or family obligations as the reason.Instead of mandating employment, the president could do other things to help Americans gain economic independence, Vallas said."If Trump were serious about helping the 'forgotten man and woman' he pledged to fight for during his campaign, he'd be addressing the real problems trapping Americans in poverty -- like the poverty-level minimum wage that's remained stuck at .25 for nearly a decade," she said. 5936

POMONA (CNS) - A 38-year-old man was charged today with the murder of a 9-year-old girl whose body was found partially inside a large duffel bag near an equestrian trail in the Hacienda Heights area.Emiel Lamar Hunt -- who is believed to be the boyfriend of Trinity Love Jones' mother -- was arrested early Saturday in connection with the girl's death. Sheriff's officials said Hunt was found sleeping in his vehicle in a lot near San Diego International Airport. The arrest was assisted by the Port of San Diego Harbor Police. Hunt appeared briefly in a Pomona courtroom Tuesday, but his arraignment was delayed until April 16. He remains jailed in lieu of million bail.The criminal complaint alleges that Hunt has a 2005 conviction for child abuse from San Diego County. He could face up to 50 years to life in state prison if convicted as charged, according to the Los Angeles County District Attorney's Office.Sheriff's officials said earlier that two "persons of interest'' had been detained for questioning in the case, but only Hunt was charged Tuesday.Sheriff's officials said they were not disclosing any additional information about the second person of interest, pending further investigation. The victim's relatives told reporters the girl's mother was the second person beingquestioned, but sheriff's officials would not confirm those reports, and there is no record of her being arrested.County workers clearing some brush in the area found the girl's body found about 10 a.m. March 5. The girl was partially inside a black roll-away- type duffel bag, with her head and upper body protruding from the partially zipped bag left at the bottom of an embankment close to Colima Road and the 3400 block of Hacienda Boulevard, near the His Lai Buddhist Temple, authorities said.The coroner's office ruled her death a homicide, but officials have not said how the girl died.Sheriff's detectives initially asked for the public's help in identifying the girl, releasing a composite sketch of the child and photos of the clothing she was wearing. Family members who created a memorial of candles, flowers, balloons, stuffed animals and photos near where the girl's body was found eventually confirmed her identity."Words can't explain what I'm feeling right now,'' Anthony Jones, Trinity's father, said at the memorial site. ``I just want answers. I just want justice. She was just the best -- full of character, full of life, full of joy.''Jones said he learned of his youngest daughter's death through a telephone call. 2536

POWAY, Calif. (KGTV) -- The San Diego County Sheriff’s Department is bringing attention to a 51-year-old unsolved murder.On May 1, 1967, 14-year-old Nikki Benedict was stabbed and left to die while walking home from her friend’s house in Poway.The family has gone 51-years without knowing what happened to Nikki. Both of her parents died without answers.Tuesday, one of her three surviving sisters was there with detectives bringing the case back up, hoping anyone with helpful information will come forward.An 11-year-old boy found Nikki suffering at 6:30 in the evening on the tragic day. Deputies and medics tried to save Nikki’s life, but she died after arriving at the hospital.When the crime happened, witnesses reported seeing a young man running from the scene. Investigators say almost every teenage boy in Poway was interviewed at the time but detectives found no connection.51-years later no one has yet been arrested for Nikki’s murder. Detectives say they don’t want to give away information regarding DNA or any other evidence linked to the knife in the case.They understand the killer may no longer be alive but ask anyone with information to call 888-580-8477.Up to a ,000 reward is being offered to anyone with information that leads to an arrest.  1280

President Donald Trump on multiple occasions raised with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Matt Whitaker, who was then-chief of staff to Jeff Sessions, whether the Justice Department was progressing in investigating Hillary Clinton, according to a source familiar with the matter.The President also wanted his previous White House counsel, Don McGahn, to ask the Justice Department to prosecute Clinton on numerous occasions, but McGahn rebuffed doing that, the source said.Anticipating the question about Clinton would be raised, Whitaker came prepared to answer with what Justice was doing on Clinton-related matters, including the Clinton Foundation and Uranium One investigations, the source said. The source added that Whitaker was trying to appease the President, but did not seem to cross any line.The New York Times first reported on Trump's requests to McGahn to prosecute Clinton, as well as former FBI Director James Comey.The Justice Department did not immediately respond to CNN's requests for comment.In March, then-Attorney General Sessions revealed that Utah's top federal prosecutor, John Huber, was looking into allegations that the FBI abused its powers in surveilling a former Trump campaign adviser, and claims that more should have been done to investigate Clinton's ties to a Russian nuclear energy agency, which have not been proven.And in January, CNN reported that the US attorney and FBI in Arkansas were investigating allegations of corruption related to the Clinton Foundation. The FBI and federal prosecutors are looking into whether donors to the foundation were improperly promised policy favors or special access to Clinton while she was secretary of state in exchange for donations to the charity's coffers, as well as whether tax-exempt funds were misused, the official said. A spokesman for Clinton dismissed the allegations as unfounded.William Burck, a lawyer for McGahn, issued a statement following the Times report that said the President hadn't ordered prosecutions of Clinton or Comey."Mr. McGahn will not comment on his legal advice to the president. Like any client, the president is entitled to confidentiality. Mr. McGahn would point out, though, that the president never, to his knowledge, ordered that anyone prosecute Hillary Clinton or James Comey," Burck said.The White House did not immediately respond to CNN's requests for comment.This is a breaking story and will be updated.The-CNN-Wire 2460