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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April. The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending. Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent. China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability. But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption. QUANTITY OR QUALITY? In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery. "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach. "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy." Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably." Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic. For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target. The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable. "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy. "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April. BUYING CURE It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how? "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years. "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said. Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said. Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said. Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s. Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent. "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk." Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax. As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities. "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said. CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE' Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth. Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries. "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach. "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global." Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect. Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure. As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop. It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach. "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said. "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.
BEIJING, May 31 (Xinhua) -- China will raise gasoline and diesel benchmark retail prices by 400 yuan (58.6 U.S. dollars) per tonne as of Monday, the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) announced Sunday. The benchmark retail price for gasoline would increase by 7 percent and the price of diesel by 8 percent, said a statement on the NDRC website. It is the third oil price adjustment this year. On March 25, the NDRC, the country's top economic planner, lifted benchmark retail price of gasoline by 290 yuan per tonne and diesel by 180 yuan per tonne. The increase was in response to the rising international crude prices under the country's the new fuel pricing mechanism, which took effect Jan. 1, according to the NDRC. China will raise gasoline and diesel benchmark retail prices by 400 yuan (58.6 U.S. dollars) per tonne as of Monday, the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) announced Sunday. According to the new mechanism, China's domestic prices are to be "indirectly linked" to global crude prices "in a controlled manner." China would adjust domestic fuel prices when global crude prices reported a daily fluctuation band of more than 4 percent for 22 working days in a row. NDRC pricing department official Xu Kuning has explained the "indirect link" as "based upon average global crude prices, while taking into account domestic production costs, taxation, and 'appropriate profits' of oil producers." Crude prices have jumped 30 percent in May, the largest monthly rise since March 1999, boosted by expectations of a global economic recovery later this year. Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose 1.23 dollars, or 1.9 percent, to settle at 66.31 dollars a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In Sunday's notice, the NDRC urged the two state-owned oil producers, PetroChina and Sinopec, to increase oil production to meet demand. It also urged local pricing regulators to strengthen supervision over oil prices and crack down on any price violations.
CAIRO, June 21 (Xinhua) -- China's new special envoy on the Middle East issue Wu Sike said here on Sunday that China is willing to push forward the peace process with all the parties concerned under new circumstances in the region. "The Chinese government and its people are very concerned about the situation of the Middle East, which has witnessed positive developments recently," Wu said during his talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abu Gheit. "China, together with the parties concerned and the international community, is willing to push forward the Middle East peace process under the current new circumstances," he added. Arab League Secretary General Amr Mahmoud Moussa (R) meets with visiting China's special envoy on the Middle East issue Wu Sike in the headquarters of the Arab League in Cairo, capital of Egypt, on June 21, 2009 "Negotiation is the only and the best way to solve the conflicts in the region and China will support all the efforts in this regard," he said. For his part, Abu Gheit said that Egypt appreciates China's efforts in facilitating the peace process, hoping that the Chinese government, along with the special envoy, would play a bigger role on the issue. Earlier in the day, Wu also met with the Cairo-based Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa. Wu, former Chinese ambassador to Egypt, was appointed as the special envoy in March this year to replace Sun Bigan. He has been director of the Department of West Asian and North African Affairs of the Foreign Ministry, ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and also the first Chinese plenipotentiary to the Arab League. Egypt is the first stop of Wu's regional trip which will also take him to the Palestinian territories, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Russia.
BEIJING, May 31 (Xinhua) -- The Beijing mansion of former Chinese Honorary President Soong Ching-ling reopened to the public on Sunday after a two-year renovation and restoration project. Rebuilt as a museum and memorial, Soong Ching-ling's former residence will have on display more historical artifacts used by Soong and her husband Sun Yat-sen, the pioneering Chinese revolutionary and political leader. Jia Qinglin (R Front), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, visits the former residence of Soong Ching Ling in Beijing, capital of China, May 31, 2009Top political advisor Jia Qinglin Sunday paid his respects at Soong's statue at the former residence. Soong (1893-1981) married Sun Yat-sen in 1915 and fought for China's independence and liberty. She devoted herself to education and health affairs for children and women after the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949. Jia Qinglin (C Front), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, poses with guests for a group photo ahead of the re-opening ceremony of the former residence and life exhibition of Soong Ching Ling in Beijing, capital of China, May 31, 2009Du Qinglin, head of the United Front Work Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, said Sunday at Soong's former Beijing residence that the China Soong Ching Ling Foundation should continue to promote China's social progress and cooperation across the Taiwan Strait.Jia Qinglin (L), chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, talks with guests ahead of the re-opening ceremony of the former residence and life exhibition of Soong Ching Ling in Beijing, capital of China, May 31, 2009.
CHENGDU, Sichuan, May 11 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao on Monday expressed his appreciation of the world community for their strong support and valuable aid on the wake of last year's devastating earthquake in southwest China and called for further international cooperation in tackling major natural disasters. "In face of grave natural disasters, the international community could support each other, enhance cooperation, join hands and jointly tackle the difficulties," Hu told some senior foreign diplomats who were invited to the capital of Sichuan Province on the anniversary of the quake. Chinese President Hu Jintao (C front) meets with envoys and delegates of some countries and international organizations, who come to attend the activities marking the anniversary of last year's devastating earthquake in the southwestern Sichuan Province, in Chengdu, capital of Sichuan Province, May 11, 2009. The magnitude-8.0 quake that hit southwest China, including many parts of Sichuan, on May 12, killed more than 69,000 people, left nearly 18,000 missing, more than 374,000 injured and millions homeless. Facing the grave disaster, Chinese armed forces and Chinese people worked as one and struggled in unity in rescue work and disaster relief, Hu told those diplomats during the half-hour meeting. The international community extended their helping hands as governments, groups and individuals from more than 160 countries and some international organizations offered a large number of fund and material assistance via different channels. Some countries, such as Russia and Japan, sent rescue teams and doctors to help the Chinese people in the quake-hit areas. Foreign rescuers, in total, offered medical care to more than 10, 000 injured people, found 52 bodies of the victims and took out one survivor from the debris, Chinese official statistics show. "The assistance from the international community strongly supported China's disaster relief and reconstruction efforts, showcased grand humanitarianism and sincere friendship with the Chinese people," Hu said. Hu briefed China's reconstruction work to the diplomats, saying it has been carried out in a strong, orderly and effective manner and recorded staged success. "After one year of hard working, the quake-hit areas witnessed the resumption of and development in their social and economic construction," Hu noted. The production and living conditions in those areas were improving and the people were working hard to build better lives and new homes, said the head of state. Hu thanked the international community for their support and aid, saying the money and materials have been used in various fields such as rebuilding of homes, roads, schools, hospitals and other important infrastructure. China has carried out "vigorous overseeing" and "effectively used" the donation from the international community, Hu told the 30 diplomats, including those from the United States, Russia, Japan, Pakistan and representatives from the UN International Children 's Emergency Fund and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. "We will strive to use the international donation in the places most in need," he said, labeling the cooperation between China and the world as "a good example of international cooperation in disaster relief." "Chinese government and people will step up exchange and cooperation with the world community, jointly tackle various global challenges and push for a harmonious world featuring long-lasting peace and common prosperity," Hu said. "We came here to show respect to the patriotism and wisdom of the Chinese people," said Nolana Ta Ama, ambassador of the Republic of Togo and dean of the diplomatic corp to China. The diplomats were also here to show respect to the mechanism Chinese government established in tackling the quake, he said. "China's efforts and success in fighting against the quake and disaster relief were a contribution to the world." Ama spoke highly of China's "enormous efforts in saving lives and helping the survivors to resume their lives," pledging that the world community will continue support and help the affected regions. The diplomats will visit some quake-hit spots near Chengdu on Tuesday.