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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The celebration of something near and dear to many San Diegans' hearts kicks off this week.American Craft Beer Week runs from May 13 - 19, inviting communities of craft brewers across the U.S. to celebrate the craft culture. The week began in 2006, when the Brewers Association wanted to make American Beer Month (traditionally in July) a week-long effort before summer beer season.In San Diego, there's no shortage of enthusiasm for the craft beer industry. The region is home to more than 150 craft beer breweries, from "Beer-amar" (Miramar) to "Hops Highway" (from Oceanside through Escondido), according to the San Diego Brewers Guild.BREW NEWS: Get all your San Diego brewery news on the 10News What's Brewing pageThat means local breweries have plenty of events through the week perfect for enjoying the unofficial holiday:May 13Pizza Party Mondays @ Second Chance Beer Company: Visit the North Park brewery for a pint and free slice of pizza.May 14Throwback movie & sushi night @ Kensington Brewing Company: Enjoy a screening of Forrest Gump with a brew from Kensington Brewing and sushi from Sushi Uno.May 15New beer release @ Eppig Brewing: Visit Eppig Brewing for the introduction of their new Maibock lager, with notes of graham cracker pie crust and toffee, and citrus and stone fruit hops.Maker's Market @North Park Beer Co.: Sip on tasty brews and check out goods from local, small businesses.May 16New beer release @ Pure Project: Be on hand for the release of Pure Project's Searchlight Casting, with notes of Citra, Santiam, and Meridian hops.Waterfront beer run @ Eppig Brewing: Tackle a run along Shelter Island from Eppig Brewing and enjoy off pints when you're finished.May 18Hops, Hash, & Hip-hop Brunch @ North Park Beer Co.: Start your day with some Biggie and brunch, featuring a full menu and beers to pair, mimosas, and the brewery's signature "brew-tails."New beer release @ Thorn Brewing Co.: Brewed in collaboration with Modern Times Brewery, Thorn St. releases Super Kaleidoscope Hazy Triple IPA, featuring notes of mango, pomelo, and tangelo.Summer kickoff party @ Green Flash Brewing Co.: Kick off summer with Green Flash's Passion Fruit Kicker and enjoy music, games, gourmet ice cream treats, and more at the Mira Mesa tasting room.Beer & ceviche pairing @ Societe Brewing Company: Enjoy four takes on ceviche from The Food Seed Food Company paired with Societe brews at this special tasting event.Sculpt night @ 32 North Brewing Co.: Sculpt your very own conquistador under the guidance of artists at I Sculpt U. Materials and tools to sculpt will be provided.May 19FreeMartin @ Barrel Harbor: Enjoy brews at Barrel Harbor to tune supplied by the band FreeMartin and food from Pinsarella Italia.Summer succulent workshop @ Green Flash Brewing Co.: Take part in a hands-on event decorating and learning how to care for your own summer succulent arrangement. 2922

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The California Center for the Arts, Escondido will host drive-in live concerts and a movie series this month.The concerts and movie screenings will be held at the former Nordstrom parking lot at Westfield North County at 8 p.m. Spaces for more than 250 vehicles will be made available and spaced apart to keep listeners distanced.The scheduled shows start on Aug. 14 with a showing of the classic musical Grease and continue on Aug. 15 and 16 with a performance by Jersey Boys stars Christian Hoff and Travis Cloer. Hoff, a Tony Award-winning actor, is best known for his portrayal of the role Tommy Devito from the Four Season’s and Cloer is the longest-running actor to play the role Frankie Valli in Jersey Boys.Tickets to the general public will go on sale on Aug. 1 at 1 p.m. here or by calling 800-988-4253. Tickets start at per car.A portion of ticket proceeds will benefit the Escondido Community Foundation and The Central San Diego Black Chamber of Commerce Foundation.The drive-in series may extend into the fall, the center says. 1072

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The Camp Pendleton Marine accused of trying to smuggle migrants through the San Ysidro Port of Entry this month has been identified.Bryan Oneal Newell Jr. was arrested Dec. 2 by U.S. Customs and Border Protection personnel at the San Ysidro Port of Entry, according to Camp Pendleton. Newell is accused of trying to bring undocumented immigrants into the U.S.Newell, a junior-enlisted Marine, was being held in civilian custody while CBP and the Naval Criminal Investigative Service investigated.RELATED: Marine accused of trying to smuggle immigrants through San Ysidro Port of EntryCamp Pendleton said Newell was not part of military personnel sent to the border to assist personnel with border operations.Newell is the most recent Marine from Camp Pendleton to be charged in an immigration scandal. In July, 23 Marines were detained over human trafficking, drug distribution, and weapons charges, according to the base.Of those 1st Marine Division Marines, six have pleaded guilty at court martial appearances while 13 have approved agreements to leave the Marines rather than go through court martials or waiving separation board processes. Four remaining Marines are currently in the adjudication process. 1237

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The National Weather Service is warning beachgoers ahead of the July 4 holiday about elevated surf and strong rip currents. A beach hazards statement will remain in effect until Friday at 3 a.m. According to the National Weather Service, waves will reach three to six feet accompanied by dangerous rip currents. “Remember to swim near a lifeguard if going out in the ocean,” said 10News meteorologist Megan Parry. RELATED: Check your Fourth of July forecastTidal overflow is also possible is areas prone to flooding, such as low-lying areas. “Tidal overflow will be possible in low lying areas during high tide between 9pm and midnight each night - keep that in mind when setting up to watch any fireworks shows during the day as the high tide moves in it may push you back by the night,” Parry added. Swells are expected to build again Friday through Sunday from Hurricane Barbara. 911