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BEIJING, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Decoupling from the world, and the economic downturn much of it is experiencing, has proven impossible for China. But its resilience is receiving more recognition, with many leading financial institutions upgrading their 2009 growth forecasts since mid-April.     The adjustments for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, ranging from 0.5 to 2.3 percentage points, were based on signs of a turnaround in the first quarter. These indicators included stronger-than-expected real GDP growth, recovering property investment, a pick-up in power consumption and a surge in bank lending.     Merrill Lynch & Co. said it expected China's GDP to grow 7.2 percent in the second quarter and 8 percent this year, while Goldman Sachs raised its projection from 6 percent to 8.3 percent, the most optimistic forecast so far. Other forecasts include UBS, which raised its estimate by 0.5 point to 7 percent and CLSA Asia-Pacific, which lifted its outlook by 1.5 point to 7 percent.     China's policymakers can take heart from these forecasts. Every upward revision, big or small, given the global economic slowdown, might point to a better chance for the nation to achieve its 8-percent growth target. That level of growth is considered necessary to raise living standards while maintaining social stability.     But there's still the question of whether rapid growth is sustainable. Some analysts believe it isn't unless China can rebalance its economy and achieve higher efficiency, lower environmental costs and a more reasonable balance among investment, trade and consumption.     QUANTITY OR QUALITY?     In an interview with Xinhua, Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, urged Chinese authorities to get more serious about stimulating private consumption because the global economy remains "pretty weak" and might only achieve a weak recovery.     "China has responded to the crisis the way it has always responded to global problems. That is, using proactive fiscal stimulus mainly in the infrastructure area to provide temporary support in the downturn until the global economy comes back. It worked in the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2000-2001 mild recession. But this is a different sort of problem," said Roach.     "Once the stimulus wears off and if there is no follow-through, the Chinese economy will weaken again. I don't think exports will recover in the weak global economy."     Domestic economists voice similar worries, saying that the speed of growth doesn't matter as much as the quality. Liu Shangxi, deputy dean of the Research Institute for Fiscal Science at the Ministry of Finance, said that the 6.1-percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter had been "fairly good" for China. But, he said, "sometimes, it's worth slowing down a bit to have the economy move more stably."     Wang Xiaoguang, an economist with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the chief planning agency. said that the government's annual growth target had become mostly symbolic.     For five years in a row, the target was 8 percent, and for five years in a row, the growth rate overshot the target. Wang said the government had faced a dilemma: a cut in the target might undermine public confidence while a rise might tempt local governments to over-invest to meet a high growth target.     The turnaround signs mostly reflected the impact of the 4-trillion-yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package. Meanwhile, retail sales still trailed investment in contributing to growth. Local economists warned that the economy remained unbalanced and vulnerable.     "Historical records show that adjustments in the Chinese economy would take two to three years, on average. Seven months have passed since the impact of the global financial crisis began to tell on the local economy.     "With a turnaround in sight, recovery might come earlier than expected but there are still risks of a further slowdown," Chen Dongqi, deputy chief of the Macro-Economic Research Institute under the NDRC, told a business development forum in Guangdong in late April.     BUYING CURE     It's widely accepted among economists that China should boost domestic private consumption by leading individuals to buy more and save less. The key question is: how?     "Two big programs" Roach advocates call for doubling the investment in social security immediately to 150 billion U.S. dollars and establishing a goal of raising consumption as a share of the economy from 36 percent to 50 percent within five years.     "What I think is missing here is the social safety net, social security pension and unemployment insurance. Because of the absence of the safety net, China has seen a high level of precautionary saving," he said.     Roach suggested that China develop a private pension system in particular so total employee compensation could rise in tandem with productivity. "Chinese companies need to partner with their workers and provide medical care [and] retirement investing for their workforce. Chinese workers' total pay package should have both wages and benefits," he said.     Liu agreed that the primary task in expanding consumption was to raise incomes. "Securing the legitimate interests of workers is particularly significant when the economy slumps. It would be like drinking poison to quench one's thirst if businesses sought to expand corporate earnings at the cost of workers' pay and benefits," he said.     Low labor costs and massive capacity have propped up China's prosperity over the past decades. But the proportion of wages to national income has been on a long decline since the 1990s.     Between 2002 and 2006 alone, economists estimate the figure dropped from 62.1 percent to 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, the contribution of consumption to GDP growth fell from 43.6 percent to 38.9 percent.     "A more meaningful index to judge the sustainability of China's economic growth would be the proportion of wages to national income," Liu said. "If this ratio did not rise, people would remain poor, and thus expanding consumption would be empty talk."     Chinese are far from wealthy. Only 4 percent of the workforce, and just 10 percent of the urban workforce, earn more than 2,000 yuan a month, the threshold for individual income tax.     As Chinese residents hold 2.43 trillion yuan in aggregate deposits, economists say one immediate way to boost consumption would be to stabilize spending on staple property -- including housing and automobiles -- and support tourism and cultural activities.     "People spend much of their money on housing and food. The government should encourage people to entertain themselves more," Wang said.     CHINA 'NO LOCOMOTIVE'     Although China might be the first major economy to recover from the downturn, economists disagree on when China will return to sustained high growth.     Morgan Stanley, for example, has forecast a firm recovery by mid-year, but said sustainable growth through 2010 would still hinge on what happens in other countries.     "China will be stronger. But will that strength be enough to allow others to follow in its footsteps? I don't think so," said Roach.     "Most of China's resilience comes from infrastructure building, roads, property consumption ... [this] won't have an impact on the United States and Europe. This resilience is only temporary while its stimulus is local rather than global."     Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also warned in late April during World Bank-IMF meetings in Washington that the rebound in China's economy had to be consolidated. He said conditions in China would permit rapid economic development again, once macroeconomic policies such as the stimulus plan took effect.     Challenging internal and external conditions, he said, included continuously shrinking external demand, a relatively large decline in exports, overcapacity in some industries, falling government revenue and lingering employment pressure.     As China emerges from the shadow of the downturn, together with many of its Western partners, the world is closely watching the socialist market economy that it is still trying to develop.     It was interesting to see that there was much "the ideologically-constrained West" could learn from China, just as there was much China could learn from the West, said Roach.     "China has gone slow in many areas, especially in the opening up of its financial market. But China made the right choice," he said.     "Focusing on stability is a huge plus for China. But the nation must be vigilant in its financial policies, especially monetary and regulatory policies, and not allow asset bubbles and financial innovations it doesn't understand," said Roach.

BEIJING, May 6 (Xinhua) -- China's central bank said Wednesday the economy is doing "better than expected" in the first quarter, and pledged to maintain "ample" liquidity in the financial system for economic recovery.     China would stick to its moderately easy monetary policy and ensure "ample" liquidity at banks, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) said in its quarterly monetary policy report posted on its website.     The country has pumped 4.58 trillion yuan (670 billion U.S. dollars) of new loans into the economy in the first quarter to stimulate growth.     The figure is already nearing 5 trillion yuan of new loans targeted for the whole year. In March alone, new loans increased by a record 1.89 trillion yuan.     The country's financial institutions and enterprises would digest the huge amount of new loans in the following months, the report said.     Industry insiders have said credit extended by China's banks in April may have dropped to above 600 billion yuan after staying at above 1 trillion yuan for three straight months.     The central bank said new lending from commercial banks focused on government-backed projects. It encourages more bank loans to be channeled to small and medium-sized enterprises as they play an important role in the national economy and in increasing employment.     The central bank said in the first-quarter monetary policy report it would continue to instruct financial institutions to extend new loans, despite the earlier surge.     The pick-up in bank lending is conducive to stabilize the financial market and boosting market confidence, PBoC said. Meanwhile, the bank urged lenders to improve credit quality to avoid a possible rebound in bad loans.     There have been "positive changes" in the economy in the first quarter, the bank said, echoing remarks made by Premier Wen Jiabao last month.     The quarter-on-quarter growth is improving, compared to the fourth quarter of last year, it said, without giving specific figures.     China's economy expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the lowest pace in 10 years and down from 9 percent in the fourth quarter last year.     The central bank also said foundations for the recovery are not solid, as uncertainties in external economies still exist and private investment is yet to become active with new lending concentrated on government projects.     In listing uncertainties ahead, the bank said the country still has to battle against the financial crisis that is unfolding and a collapse in external demand that is hurting exports.     The country is also under great pressure to create enough jobs and from a slower growth in residents' income, which would suppress future consumption, it said.     The bank also warned overcapacity and insufficient demand may drive prices lower in the country with the world economy in a downturn.     But it also said continued falls in prices may become less likely along with the world recovery, a turnaround in the national economy and fast credit growth.     "Prices of primary products and assets may rebound quickly once investor confidence is restored, as the global credit is relatively loose thanks to injection of liquidity and stimulus packages across the world," the bank said.     The central bank also said it was concerned that the extraordinary monetary policy adopted by other major economies would result in inflation risks.     It referred to the quantitative easing policy adopted by the U.S., Japan, Britain and Switzerland to pump cash into their economies.     The quantitative easing policy meant increasing currency supply through purchasing mid- and long-term treasury bonds after central banks cut interests rates to near zero.     The extraordinary monetary policy harbored huge risks for international financial markets and the global economy, said the central bank.     It would increase the risk of global inflation, said the central bank, suggesting it would create new assets bubbles and inflation if central banks of major economies failed to mop up thehuge liquidity when the global economy recovered.     "A policy mistake made by some major central banks would put the whole world in risk of inflation," it said.     The quantitative easing policy would also make exchange rates of major currencies more volatile, according to the report.     The central bank cited the U.S. move to purchase treasury bond in March as an example, saying although the dollar had appreciated against other major currencies, it fell after the purchase.     PBoC said the policy would leave the bond markets subject to fluctuations.     It said massive purchase of mid- and long-term treasury bonds may keep yield at a low level. But in the long run, as the financial markets returned to stability and the economy recovered, inflation expectations would grow, interest rates would rise, and bond prices would adjust sharply, according to the report.

YINGXIU, Sichuan, May 12 (Xinhua) -- One year after a massive earthquake hit China's southwestern inland, Chinese President Hu Jintao on Tuesday mourned quake victims with a white chrysanthemum and a motivating speech calling for collective strength in face of extreme hardship.     On 2:28 p.m. Tuesday, exactly one year after the devastating quake shattered many areas in Sichuan and neighboring provinces, President Hu, in dark suit and a blue-and-white stripped tie, paid his respect at a white marble memorial wall on which a written record was inscribed. Chinese President Hu Jintao places a white chrysanthemum in front of a commemorative wall of the earthquake during the commemorative service to mark the first anniversary of May 12 Earthquake in Yingxiu Township of Wenchuan County, southwest China's Sichuan Province, May 12, 2009Beside the monument wall stands a giant granite clock, purposely made cracked, showing the exact time as the tremor occurred. The mourning venue was located among destroyed buildings, including one once belonged to the Xuankou Middle School in the 12,000-resident Yingxiu town, the epicenter of the earthquake. Two thirds of Yingxiu residents lost their lives. Among them 44 were students or teachers from the particular school. A national flag-raising ceremony is held during the commemorative service to mark the first anniversary of May 12 Earthquake in Yingxiu Township of Wenchuan County, southwest China's Sichuan Province, on May 12, 2009The former school gate was decorated Tuesday with white and yellow silk flower, a symbol of grief in the Chinese culture.     After solemn music played by a white uniform-clad military trumpeter, President Hu said, "The country mobilized the fastest, widest and strongest relief efforts when the whole Chinese nation was faced with the unprecedented challenge from the quake disaster."     Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao arrived in Sichuan hours after the quake hit the province to direct relief work.     "Our quick response helped save lots of lives and minimize property losses incurred by the quake," Hu said.     The most destructive quake in China's history, the 8.0-magnitude earthquake struck Sichuan's Wenchuan county and affected some parts of the provinces of Shaanxi and Gansu on May 12, 2008, leaving more than 87,000 dead or missing and the property loss valued at, in official estimates, more than 800 billion yuan (117 billion U.S. dollars).     Mentioning global aid to China's quake relief, Hu said, "On behalf of the Chinese government and people, I express, once again, heartfelt thanks to foreign leaders, governments, political parties, social institutions and embassies in China for their deep care and support to quake relief and reconstruction."     He also thanked United Nations organizations and other international institutions and foreign friendly personages for their care and support

HONG KONG, June 30 (Xinhua) -- The renminbi deposits with authorized institutions in Hong Kong rose 0.8 percent in May to 53. 4 billion yuan (7.8 billion U.S. dollars), representing about 2 percent of the foreign currency deposits, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said Tuesday.     The total deposits rose 2 percent in the same month, with the HK dollar deposits rising 2.7 percent as the expansion in demand and savings deposits exceeded the contraction in time deposits.     Foreign currency deposits climbed 1.4 percent.     Seasonally-adjusted HK dollar M1, the narrowest measure of money supply in an economy, rose 9.6 percent in May and 26.8 percent from a year earlier. Unadjusted HK dollar M3, the broader measure, grew 2.5 percent in May and 8.1 percent year on year.     Hong Kong, a southern Chinese special administrative region and free trade hub, has been trying to foster the development of RMB financial market recently with a pilot scheme using yuan for cross- border trade settlement and the issuing of yuan-denominatedbonds in Hong Kong by local and foreign banks operating in the mainland.

EDINBURGH, May 9 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said Friday during a visit to Scotland that China hopes to strengthen cooperation with Scotland, especially in the areas of education, culture, tourism and finance.     Wang, who is on an official visit to Britain, spoke during a meeting with Alex Salmond, Scotland's first minister.     Both sides praised the friendship between China and Scotland and expressed a readiness to strengthen their cooperation as part of an effort to promote the all-round strategic partnership between China and Britain.     During the meeting, the two also exchanged views on how to tackle the global financial crisis.     "Currently we should further strengthen confidence in the market and recover the functions of the financial market as soon as possible," Wang said.     After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, China adopted a series of measures that pulled it through the trouble and helped to maintain the stability of the financial market, Wang said.     Salmond spoke highly of the economic stimulus packages arranged by the Chinese government to tackle the current financial crisis.     Wang arrived at Edinburgh on Friday after a visit to the Europe Union