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On their surface, a lot polls got the 2016 election wrong. As late as October 23, 2016, an ABC News poll had Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12%.But pollsters say that polls like the one conducted by ABC News do not even tell the whole story.“National polls are very helpful in giving us a sense of who might win the popular vote. In that regard, 2016 polls were relatively accurate,” said Emily Goodman is a principal at EMC Research, a nationwide polling firm.Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2.8 million votes or 2%. In the last week of the election, many polls had tightened to have Clinton winning by about 2 to 5 percent. Goodman says a lot of people don’t understand polls.“One of the most important things to know about polls is that, they’re just a point in time, it’s a snapshot,” she said. There are a few key things you should look for when it comes to polling, the first being you don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote.“The path to the presidency is by winning 270 Electoral College votes and that is why the state by state polling is incredibly important,” said Goodman. So nationwide polling won’t tell you who will win. Instead, state by state polling is more helpful.There’s also a few other things you should look for if you see a poll on the news, social media or other places.“The first is timeline, when was it conducted? Are you looking at a poll that was very recent, or a poll that was conducted months ago? Who the poll is conducted among. So are you looking at a poll of adults, are you looking at a poll of registered voters, of likely voters, or some other subset of the population? The sample size, that is, how many people were actually included in the poll? That ultimately tells you what the margin of error is. How the poll was conducted, what was the methodology? Was it conducted on telephone and did those phones include landlines and cellphones? Was it conducted online, over text?” Goodman explains. One key thing there, how polling respondents are reached, and it’s one thing that a pollster who got the 2016 election right says is key.“I don’t want the public face, I want what you really think because your real opinions are what go in that voting booth with you, when nobody is looking," said Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster for the Trafalgar Group,In 2016, Trafalgar projected Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida for Donald Trump. He says in 2016, there was a group of hidden Trump supporters. He said it’s a result of what’s called the Social Desirability Bias.“When you speak to a live person on the phone, you tend, especially when you know they know who you are, you tend to give an answer to a question that you think will make you look best in the mind of the person you’re talking to versus your true feeling,” he said. Cahaley says to some people, being seen as a Trump supporter is so undesirable, they won’t tell the truth to people conducting polls on the phone. He’s seeing the same exact thing in 2020 he saw in 2016 and that traditional polling may not be accounting for this.However, Goodman says that the industry is expanding how to reach respondents.“What used to be the gold standard of telephone surveys, exclusively landlines, is no longer appropriate. Cellphones, but beyond just having someone just call up a voter on your cellphone, we’re also now including texting, emailing, that includes a link to take a survey online and using a mix of those methodologies really helps get a representative sample of likely voters,”Both pollsters do agree on one thing however, this election will come down to turn out.“A lot of this is really going to come down to turn out,” said Goodman. “This thing has never been a persuasion election, I’ve said that from the beginning, it’s a motivational election. Whichever side turns out their people is going to win this race, and it’s that simple,” said Cahaley. 3923

Often as long-winded and cumbersome as its title, "The Personal History of David Copperfield" sputters at times but manages to make you feel good while you're sort of bored.In many ways, it's the ideal pandemic movie. The timeless, Job-like tale follows a put-upon man who is subject to one ludicrously unfair situation, managing to thrive by maintaining his faith in himself.Director Armando Iannucci ("In the Loop," "The Death of Stalin") has a clear love for the 1850 Charles Dickens source material. Maybe he has too much reverence for every laborious twist and turn of the gigantic novel, which seems more comfortable in a miniseries format rather than a tight two-hour package.You could hardly dream up a better cast. Dev Patel thrives in the lead role as adult David, granting him a can-do attitude that makes him easy to get behind amid all the challenges he faces.Hugh Laurie is deliciously cantankerous as the ne'er do well Mr. Dick, and Tilda Swinton is regal as Betsey Trotwood, whose own riches-to-rags tale echoes that of David.The producers assembled a refreshingly diverse cast to tell the old tale, and the choices largely make sense in historical context. Played by a man of Indian descent, the subtle racism and structural disadvantages David faces are all the more searing and impactful when they're based not on happenstance but partially on skin color.If only the story itself was injected with such reimagination. While the costumes and set design are exquisite, there's a stolid and creaky feel to the show that recalls a stuffy theatrical repertory production. Even at its best, Dickens is dense and bulky, and without much effort to recast and slim down the storylines for modern times, it's easy to get hopelessly lost amid the barrage of plodding plot developments.Despite its flaws, the film is a welcome sight for sore, theater-deprived moviegoers jonesing for a reason to grab a soda and bucket of popcorn and get back to the old routine. As David always believes, better things are to come.RATING: 2.5 stars out of 4.This story originally written by Phil Villarreal on KGUN9.com 2119

OTAY MESA WEST, Calif. (KGTV) — One person was injured after a confrontation following a South Bay party ended in gunfire.San Diego Police said a 38-year-old man had attended a party on Beyer Blvd. in Otay Mesa West before confronting an "old acquaintance" in a parking lot just before 6 a.m.The two got into an argument and the suspect pulled out a gun and shot the man in the legs, police said.The victim suffered non-life threatening injuries.Police only described the suspect as a 26-year-old Hispanic man.Anyone with information is asked to call San Diego Police at 619-531-2000 or 858-484-3154, or Crime Stoppers at 888-580-8477. 643

One of the positions President-elect Joe Biden will reportedly be looking to fill when he takes office will be a new NASA administrator.According to Aviation Week & Space Technology, current NASA chief Jim Bridenstine said that he would step down from his position with the space agency even if Biden asked him to stay.Bridenstine told the magazine that he based his decision on what's best for the space agency, not for "partisan reasons."Bridenstine continued by saying that the next administrator needs to have a "close relationship with the president" and be "trusted by the administration," the magazine reported.Bridenstine added in the article that he doesn't think he'd be the right person under a new administration.According to NASA's website, the former Oklahoma congressman was appointed by President Donald Trump and took the NASA job in 2018.Bridenstine said he hasn't thought about what his next career step will be, Aviation Weekly reported. 965

Ohio State University football coach Urban Meyer was suspended for three games without pay in the wake of an investigation into exactly what he knew about spousal abuse allegations leveled against former assistant coach Zach Smith, the university announced Wednesday night.Athletic Director Gene Smith was suspended without pay from August 31 to September 16, according to a summary of the investigative findings and university actions."Although neither Urban Meyer, nor Gene Smith condoned or covered up the alleged domestic abuse by Zach Smith, they failed to take sufficient management action relation to Zach Smith's misconduct and retained an assistant coach who was not performing as an appropriate role model for OSU student-athletes," the summary said.The announcement followed a 10-hour meeting held by the Ohio State University Board of Trustees discussing the job status of the famed football coach and three-time national championship winner.Ohio State put Meyer on paid leave August 1, saying it wanted to investigate exactly what he knew about the allegations leveled against former assistant coach Zach Smith.Ohio State fired Smith on July 23, three days after he was served with a civil protection order on behalf of his ex-wife, Courtney Smith. She has accused her former husband of abuse, including domestic violence in 2009 and 2015.The day after Smith's firing, Meyer told reporters that he knew about the 2009 allegation, but didn't know about the 2015 allegation.Then Courtney Smith told Stadium, a sports network, that she told Shelley Meyer about the alleged 2015 incident that year -- leading to speculation about whether the coach did know.Ohio State, already embroiled in separate scandals involving alleged sex abuse by a now-deceased athletics doctor and a diving coach, put Meyer on leave and formed a group led by a former Securities and Exchange Commission chairwoman to conduct an investigation.Meyer later said that he had been inadequately prepared to discuss the issue in late July, and that he had "followed reporting protocols and procedures ... regarding the Zach Smith incident in 2015."Zach Smith told ESPN on August 3 that he indeed discussed the 2015 incident with Meyer as police investigated the matter. Meyer told him that "if I find out you hit her, you're done," Smith recalled to ESPN.Meyer has one of the best college football winning percentages of all time, with 188 wins and only 34 losses in 17 years. 2463