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 Sorry to rain on your beach barbecue: There is a 70% chance of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico over Memorial Day weekend and an even better chance of soaking rains across the eastern Gulf Coast.Hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1, but that doesn't mean we won't see some action Saturday or Sunday.Forecast models have not been in agreement on where the expected storm will go, but they have agreed that it will form. It is now a small cluster of thunderstorms near Belize. Over the next 48 hours, the atmosphere is not favorable for development, but conditions look more favorable as we move into the weekend.The National Hurricane Center says there is a 70% chance that a subtropical or tropical depression could form in the Gulf of Mexico.The American forecast model has been very wishy-washy on the location. Most of its runs have shown the storm moving across the Florida peninsula. The European model has been a little more consistent, showing a tropical or subtropical storm drifting ashore near New Orleans.No matter where this storm moves or how strong it becomes, it will continue to bring tropical moisture into the South from Louisiana to North Carolina. The heaviest rain will fall near the Gulf, with Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama seeing seven-day rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches.If it gets strong enough to become a subtropical or tropical storm, with sustained winds of 39 miles per hour (63 kilometers per hour) or greater, it will be named Alberto.As we have seen in years past, environmental conditions sometimes allow for development before the hurricane season begins. The last time a tropical cyclone was named Alberto was in 2012; it also formed before the season began, on May 19. It became a tropical storm that meandered off the cast coast of Georgia and South Carolina.Just last year, we had a named storm -- Tropical Storm Arlene -- east of Bermuda in April.This early development doesn't necessarily mean we are in for a busy hurricane season. The official National Hurricane Center forecast released Thursday will be a better indication. Some forecasters have suggested a slightly above-average year. 2191

(AP) — California officials say the state Republican Party has yanked unofficial drop boxes that came under fire last weekend, but declined to weigh in on whether the GOP’s continued use of boxes to collect votes was legal. The state says it is issuing a subpoena to seek more information about the boxes during the election. Republicans say they have been following the law and corrected a mislabeled box as soon as they learned of the problem. They say they will continue to use boxes to collect ballots and the state's actions have sought to intimidate their supporters. RELATED:A step-by-step guide to voting by mail or in person in San Diego CountyCalifornia GOP spokesperson defends unofficial ballot boxesThe back-and-forth comes after a weeklong controversy over ballot collection as votes are already pouring into county offices. 846

 SAN DIEGO (CNS) - Years of drought and a significant build-up of grass from last winter's rains has created dangerous wildfire conditions in San Diego and surrounding areas of the county, San Diego Fire-Rescue Department Chief Brian Fennessy said Monday.In a report delivered to the City Council's Public Safety and Livable Neighborhoods Committee, the chief said people think the winter rains will ease the fire threat this fall."Well, it did, in the green-up period in the spring, but all that new growth dies," Fennessy said.RELATED: It's Wildfire Season! Here's how to prepareHe said the dead grass can carry fire into heavier, drought-stricken vegetation, acting as a kindling of sorts. The conditions have led to a large amount of small roadside fires this year, often caused by malfunctioning catalytic converters in vehicles, he said."On top of the five years of drought we experienced, we've got vast accumulations of dead fuel mixed in with this dried, light fuel type," Fennessy said. "I've been doing this nearly 40 years, and I don't know that I've seen the fuels as stricken and as in dire need of moisture as it is now."His report said the weather forecast calls for little to no rainfall this fall.Geologist Dr. Pat Abbott walked the trailhead at the base of Cowles Mountain with 10News.  "You see all the classic elements; the drying out of flat-top buckwheat, a lot of dried grasses. All the rains we've had this year, a lot of grasses have burned; they don't have a lot of fuel but they burn so fast they're almost like wicks to the denser chaparral. The dark green sushes, shrubbery up there; that's a tremendous amount of stored energy."RELATED: County map shows fire threat level by regionAccording to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, it's more probable than not that temperatures will be warmer than normal through the end of the year, with equal odds that precipitation will be normal.Through Sunday, Cal Fire has responded to 5,350 fires throughout the state this year, which have scorched more than 230,000 acres. The five-year average for the same time period is nearly 4,000 blazes and 198,000 acres, according to data from Cal Fire, which provides fire protection outside major cities.While the conditions for wildfires could be risky, the department is adequately staffed and equipped to respond to blazes that break out, Fennessy said. He said the SDFRD has a dozen brush engines, two water-dropping helicopters and access to the San Diego Gas & Electric heli-tanker.City crews have also been inspecting properties along canyon rims for overgrown brush, he said. 2624

(CNN) — California high school and middle school students will have some lifesaving information at their fingertips as they go back to school this year.A law that went into effect in July requires schools to print the number for the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline on student ID cards for seventh- through 12th-graders in public, private and charter schools.That number is 1-800-273-TALK (8255).The law also says that student IDs may have information on the Crisis Text Line — which can be reached by texting HOME to 741741 — as well as local suicide prevention resources."I think any opportunity for somebody to have a number to be able to call out to, reach out to and be available, I think it's fantastic," Ray Morgan told CNN affiliate KGO. His daughter is a freshman at a San Francisco Bay Area high school.The move comes as suicide rates continue to rise in the United States.The suicide rate in 2017 was 33% higher than it was in 1999, according to annual research published in June by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics.A study published in the medical journal JAMA found a significant increase in the suicide rates among 15- to 24-year-olds between 2000 and 2017.Dave Muth, who advocated for the law, told CNN affiliate KESQ that he hopes it encourages people to talk openly about suicide and mental health. His daughter Madeline died by suicide in 2015."This is a way of remembering her, honoring her and helping to break down the stigma and change policy so that other families don't have to experience what we did," Muth said last year when then-Gov. Jerry Brown signed the measure.To get help, call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-TALK (8255). There is also a crisis text line. For crisis support in Spanish, call 1-888-628-9454. 1832

 A new migrant caravan is heading to the United States. And US President Donald Trump has already weighed in, threatening to cut foreign aid to Honduras if the group isn't brought back to the Central American country.The caravan, which organizers say numbers thousands of people, formed in the Honduran city of San Pedro Sula on Saturday and crossed into Guatemala on Monday.Members of the group told CNN en Espa?ol that they decided to join the caravan and head to the US because of insecurity and a lack of jobs in Honduras.The big question: Will authorities detain them before they reach the US border?As local media documented the first steps of the group's journey over the weekend, government officials across the region spoke out, advising them to turn back.The US Embassy in Honduras warned of the dangers of the journey and noted that the United States would enforce its immigration laws. Mexico's foreign ministry?released a statement noting that travelers should consult its migration laws before trying to enter."Please bear in mind that current legislation does not permit entry into Mexico if requirements to travel to a neighboring country have not been met," the statement said. "To avoid surprises, please inform yourself before starting out."But the caravan continued undeterred.Police in Esquipulas, Guatemala, about 10 km (6 miles) from the border, blocked their path for nearly two hours on Monday, according to local media reports, but eventually allowed them to continue their journey after the migrants refused to turn back.By Tuesday morning, the caravan had caught the attention of Trump, who tweeted about it.Vice President Mike Pence also weighed in, saying he's spoken with Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández."Told him U.S. will not tolerate this blatant disregard for our border & sovereignty," Pence tweeted.Bartolo Fuentes, one of the coordinators of the march, told CNN that the group planned to apply for humanitarian visas in Mexico that would allow them to travel through the country to the US border.Many families in the caravan spent Monday night in Esquipulas and restarted their march north Tuesday morning.This caravan's emergence comes nearly six months after another caravan consisting largely of Honduran immigrants reached the US-Mexico border.That group's approach sparked a Twitter tirade by Trump, and days later spurred his decision to deploy National Guard troops to the US-Mexico border. Trump also threatened foreign aid to Honduras at that time.Ultimately, migrants from that group crossed the US border and asked for asylum.Leaders of the new caravan told CNN en Espa?ol that it formed spontaneously and was organized through social networks.This caravan's formation also comes just weeks before high-stakes midterm elections in the United States, in which many Republican candidates have been echoing the President's messaging about boosting border security and cracking down on illegal immigration. And no matter what happens next to these migrants, their caravan is likely to come up on the campaign trail.US Department of Homeland Security spokeswoman Katie Waldman said the agency is monitoring the caravan and working with Central American countries and Mexico on the matter."As we have said time and again, until Congress acts, we will continue to have de facto open borders that guarantees future 'caravans' and record numbers of family units entering the country illegally," Waldman said.Honduras, the second-poorest country in Central America, is plagued by widespread gang violence. San Pedro Sula, where this caravan began, has been described as one of the world's murder capitals.But experts have argued that US foreign aid has helped stem violence in the Central American country. And that without it, migration is likely to increase. 3896

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