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The polling industry has a lot on the line heading into Tuesday's midterm election.Critics blamed pollsters when voters were caught off guard by Donald Trump's election in 2016. Old cries of "don't believe the polls" became fevered shouts. And the president has encouraged distrust by calling certain polls "fake" and claiming they are used to "suppress" the vote.Although there is no evidence to suggest that is true, there is persistent and widespread suspicion about polling, according to, you guessed it, a McClatchy-Marist poll. And it exists on both sides, albeit in different forms."I think Democrats may have felt let down by the polls but don't think it was an intentional error. I think many Republicans believe the polling errors of 2016 were intentional," GOP pollster and co-founder of Echelon Insights Kristen Soltis Anderson told CNN.So can the industry regain trust?Since 2016 there's been a whole lot of self-reflection in the polling world. Pollsters have tweaked their techniques; pundits have become more cautious when talking about polls; and news outlets have conducted some fascinating experiments.On Tuesday, all the efforts are being put to the test."Some pollsters would disagree with this, but the way that the public generally views whether or not polling is accurate is whether or not it gets the results of the election right," CNN analyst Harry Enten said on "Reliable Sources.""I'm not necessarily sure that's fair," Enten said, "but I do think that there is more pressure on pollsters this year to get it right given the president's rhetoric and given what happened in 2016."Many, though not all, 2016 polls underestimated support for Trump. This effect was particularly pronounced at the state level, where there were embarrassing "misses," showing Hillary Clinton with safe leads in states Trump actually carried.Most national polls accurately showed Clinton winning the popular vote. But reporters and commentators made lots of mistakes in their interpretations of the polls. Readers and viewers did, too. Many people discounted the margin and other factors and made faulty assumptions that Trump would lose to Clinton.There were other problems, too. Predictive features on websites gained lots of traffic before the election but caused lots of consternation afterward. HuffPost's model infamously showed Clinton with a 98 percent chance of winning. "We blew it," the site admitted afterward.But just as importantly, HuffPost's Natalie Jackson tried to explain why.Other news outlets have also tried to be more transparent and remind voters of what polls cannot convey.In special elections since 2016, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed polls of their races.The top example was the Virginia governors' race. "Ralph Northam was favored by three points. He ended up winning by nine," Enten said.But past outcomes are not an indicator of future results."I think many pollsters and forecasters have tried to be much more intentional about explaining uncertainty and being humble about what data can and can't tell us," Anderson said. "Because I think there was a big sense that in 2016, there was more certainty conveyed than may have been justified by the available data."So political pros and reporters are communicating poll results differently this time. Time magazine's Molly Ball, who has a no-predictions rule for herself, said that even people who do make predictions are adding more caveats: There's "less of the, 'Well, the needle shows this' and more of, 'Here's what it doesn't show, here's what we should always remember can happen about probabilities.'"Early voting has been explosive in the midterms, indicating above-average enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans. Pollsters have to make assumptions about turnout when contacting "likely voters," and this is a difficult election to forecast.The 2018 electorate is "a universe that doesn't exist yet," Democratic pollster Margie Omero said. "I mean, people don't know whether they're going to vote, some people."They may tell a pollster that they're sure to vote, but never make it to the ballot box. Or they might change who they're voting for.Conversely, certain subsets of voters may have a big impact on the final results without really showing up in the pre-election polling. If pollsters assume relatively low youth turnout, but lots of young people vote for the first time, that could cause big surprises in certain races.The vast majority of people who are called by pollsters decline to participate, so the researchers have to make a huge number of phone calls, bend over backwards to reach a representative sample of people, and weight their results accordingly.Some polls are higher quality than others. Most news outlets tend to favor live interviewers, as opposed to computerized systems, and a mix of landline and cell phone calls. But some outlets are wading into web-based polling. CNN's polling standards preclude reporting on web polls.This fall The New York Times pulled back the curtain by conducting "live polling" and publishing the results in real time, call by call. Working with Siena College, the surveyors made 2,822,889 calls and completed 96 polls of House and Senate races."We wanted to demystify polling for people," said Nate Cohn of The Times' Upshot blog."From our point of view, it's almost a miracle how accurate polls usually are, given all the challenges," Cohn said in an interview with CNN.He emphasized that polls are "very fuzzy things." And the real-time polling showed this to the public. The researchers sought to interview about 500 people for each race that was examined.In Iowa's fourth congressional district, for example, 14,636 calls resulted in 423 interviews.The results showed the incumbent, far-right congressman Steve King, with 47% support, and his Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten with 42%.The Times characterized this as a "slight edge" for King, with lots of room for error. "The margin of sampling error on the overall lead is 10 points, roughly twice as large as the margin for a single candidate's vote share," the Times explained on its website.Cohn's final pre-election story noted that "even modest late shifts among undecided voters or a slightly unexpected turnout could significantly affect results."That's the kind of language that lots of polling experts are incorporating into their stories and live shots, especially in the wake of the 2016 election."With polling, you never actually get to the truth," Cohn said. "You inch towards it, and you think you end up within plus or minus 5 points of it at the end."As Enten put it, "polls are tools," not meant to be perfect. But that message needs to be reinforced through the news media. 6753

The manufacturer and marketer behind Bratz dolls and the toy LOL Surprise has spurred a campaign to save Toys R Us, and so far investors are pledging 0 million.Billionaire Isaac Larian is also the marketer who has made the above-mentioned toys a success. In an interview with USA Today, Larian said He and the other investors are seeking to raise another 0 million in order to make a billion bid to acquire the bankrupt Toys R Us.A GoFundMe campaign has been launched to crowdfund this investment idea. People who pledge between %50- will get a special edition Num Noms toy.Bigger pledges get donors bigger special edition toys, USA Today reports.Some Toys R Us stores have posted paper signs on their doors saying liquidation sales, which were supposed to begin today, have been delayed.  Company lawyers told US Bankruptcy court on Tuesday that it planned to start sales this Thursday. 922

The Justice Department is investigating Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke for possibly using his office for personal gain, following a referral from Interior's inspector general, two sources familiar with the investigation say.The full extent of the inquiry is unclear.Zinke has faced multiple ethics questions during his time at Interior, and the inspector general's office has multiple public inquiries into the secretary including the department's handling of a Connecticut casino project, whether the boundaries for Grand Staircase Escalante National Monument were redrawn to benefit a state lawmaker and conversations between Zinke and Halliburton Chairman David Lesar about a Montana land development project.Zinke said he has not been contacted by the Justice Department."They haven't talked to me. It will be the same thing as all the other investigations. I follow all rules, procedures, regulations and most importantly the law. This is another politically driven investigation that has no merit," Zinke told CNN.The Justice Department declined to comment. Interior's inspector general's office said it would not comment on Justice-related issues.President Donald Trump's Cabinet secretaries have faced scrutiny over their use of government resources, including former Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson.CNN has also learned Justice Department investigators began probing Scott Pruitt's questionable ethical conduct before he left as Environmental Protection Agency administrator, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. The inquiry was opened up after a referral from the EPA IG regarding whether Pruitt took any action to benefit an energy lobbyist he rented a condo from for below market rate.The probe appears to have stalled since Pruitt left office over the summer, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. 1922

The Olmsted Locks and Dam project, located on the Ohio River between Illinois and Kentucky, has taken 30 years and billion to complete.  But after three decades, the project is slated to be operational in October.The engineers and workers behind the development say the investment is worth it."The Ohio flows into the Mississippi 16 miles downriver from us, and then it's open passage all the way down to New Orleans and into the ocean,” explains Mick Awbreyk, the Army Corps of Engineers deputy chief for the Olmsted Division. “There is no locks and dams from the Olmsted to the ocean."He says the innovative details that went into the project are “phenomenal and truly world class.”Awbreyk will see the opening of the project, which began in 1988.So, why has it taken so long to complete?“The nature of the project; a lot of different things have led to the duration,” explains Awbreyk of the timeline. “One: it hasn't been fully funded until calendar 2013, fiscal years 2014 and that’s the nature of civil works projects."The dam crosses one of the busiest shipping lanes in the United States. Awbreyk says about 91 million tons of goods on average come through the area per year.“The equivalent of 25,000 semi-trucks worth of cargo passes through this site every year,” says Awbreyk. “You can imagine the wear and tear on the interstates and the highways that would have an extra 25,000 vehicles that will be on there per day."The project's price tag has grown to around billion. Workers here say it's money Americans will see come back to them."It’s widely important. The return on investment on this particular project is 0 million per year to the nation,” says Awbreyk. “That’s a net number, so ultimately it’s a little under a billion price tag; it will pay for itself in five years.” 1817

The Honda CR-V, one of the most popular vehicles in America, is plagued by a potentially dangerous engine problem that could cause the small SUVs to lose power or even stall, according to Consumer Reports magazine.In some CR-Vs, gasoline can leak into the SUV's engine oil. That can eventually cause the engine to lose power or stall completely. Several Consumer Reports subscribers reported the issue which has also been the subject of of dozens of complaints to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, according to the magazine. Many more owners have complained of the problem in online forums, Consumer Reports said.Several CR-V owners have posted complaints with NHTSA reporting a strong smell of unburned gasoline as a result of fuel getting into the engine's lubricating oil.A Honda spokesman took issue with Consumer Reports' contention that the problem is widespread, saying there are hundreds of thousands of CR-Vs on the road so a problem affecting even a tiny percentage of them could result in a fairly large number of complaints.Honda's Chris Martin said the automaker is working to figure out a fix for the problem and hopes to have one ready by mid-November. Honda does not consider the problem to be a safety threat requiring a recall. Owners with concerns about the problem should visit a Honda dealer for an inspection. Any needed repairs will be covered under their warranty, the automaker said.Consumer Reports counters that the issue is, indeed, safety related."There are many ways stalling can be a safety issue, so if these cars are stalling, they need to be recalled," said David Friedman, vice president for Advocacy at Consumer Reports and a former acting NHTSA director.The problem occurs in 2017 and 2018 CR-Vs with Honda's new 1.5-liter turbocharged engine. Somehow, gasoline is getting into the car's lubricating oil which should not normally happen, Consumer Reports said. That dilutes the engine oil making it less effective at lubricating the engine. Over time, that can lead to engine damage and loss of power or stalling, especially on cold days or in heavy traffic.Honda says the problem has occurred mostly in northern parts of the country during short drives in extreme cold weather. Consumer Reports said the problem had been reported to the magazine by CR-V owners as far south as Texas and New Mexico.Honda spokesman Martin took issue with Consumer Reports' contention that the problem is geographically more widespread than the automaker says. Honda also pointed out that it is normal for small amounts of gasoline to find their way into the engine's oil but it usually burns away during continued driving."While others may easily complain online of experiencing something similar under other circumstances," Martin said in an email, "it is premature and a bit irresponsible to link them all together without physical inspections of the vehicles, which is what [Consumer Reports] has done here."Honda has recalled CR-Vs in China for a similar issue. But, Honda said those vehicles do not have precisely the same engine used in CR-Vs sold in the United States,When an automaker issues a safety recall in the United States, it is legally required to fix the problem, at no charge to the owner, in all potentially affected vehicles. Automakers frequently do other sorts of updates and fixes to vehicles, at their discretion, without necessarily fixing the problem in all vehicles. 3439

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