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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now projects that 67,000 American lives would be saved between now and December 1 by near universal wearing of masks.The IHME released the updated model on Thursday. As part of the update, the IHME said that four states, Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina, have hit an important metric of a daily death rate of eight per one million residents, and that those states should re-impose statewide closures of non-essential businesses.The IHME’s coronavirus projections have been frequently cited in the past by the White House’s coronavirus task force. The group uses state data along with other metrics to create projections on the number of coronavirus-related deaths throughout the US.The model projects with inconsistent use of masks, the US death toll for the coronavirus will be up to 295,000 by December 1, an increase from the current figure of 158,000, per Johns Hopkins University data. The IHME’s projections drops considerably to 228,000 if masks are worn universally outside of the home.IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said at a news conference on Thursday that mask wearing mandates work, but communities also respond when they see cases are spreading.“People do respond to the circumstances in their community,” Murray said. “Mandates have an important effect.”One thing the model does not take into account is the use of therapeutics of a possible vaccine. Murray said that the IHME is closely monitoring the effectiveness of two potential therapeutics – remdesivir and dexamethasone – and may adjust future models as more is learned about those drugs.The model expects the number of coronavirus-related deaths to ebb and flow into the fall, but begin to increase by November. "November is a month we expect the spread to increase due to seasonality," Murray said. We are expecting considerable daily deaths. That pushes up our projections."“We expect it rise later in the fall,” Murray added.One cause for concern comes at the end of November when families begin to travel for holidays such as Thanksgiving.Murray said that while mask-wearing is not necessary when around family members of the same household, he said mask-wearing may be necessary for holiday gatherings. Murray said his family is taking the recommendation one step further, and is simply not gathering with extended relatives this fall.What’s built into the IHME’s projection is that a number of states will need to implement stricter closures in order to slow the spread. As part of the IHME’s recommendation, states implement closures of non-essential businesses when there is a threshold of eight deaths a day per million. Also part of the modeling is based on 50% of schools being closed in each state for the upcoming year. Murray said with many schools opening or implementing hybrid models, more will be learned in the coming weeks on how easily the virus spreads within schools.Recent measures in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas has allowed a small decline in cases, but deaths in those states have not dropped off, according to Murray.“We have been seeing cases peaking and hospitalizations peaking and deaths not quite yet peaking, but we expect them to peak in the near future but we don’t expect a sharp decline," Murray said.To see a state-by-state breakdown of the IHME’s projections, click here. 3403
The Walt Disney Co. is planning to lay off 28,000 workers in its theme parks division in California and Florida.The company has been squeezed by limits on attendance at its parks and other restrictions due to the pandemic. Officials said Tuesday that two-thirds of the planned layoffs involve part-time workers but they ranged from salaried employees to nonunion hourly workers.In addition to the 28,000 nonunion workers, Disney said it is discussing next steps with unionized cast members.Disney’s parks closed last spring as the pandemic started spreading in the U.S. The Florida parks reopened this summer, but the California parks have yet to reopen as the company awaits guidance from the state of California.Disney along with local officials, have pressured California officials to resume operations at Disneyland. Disneyland has been ordered to remain closed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom.Newsom said a month ago that he would have an announcement soon on plans to allow for a reopening of amusement parks in California, including Disneyland.“In light of the prolonged impact of COVID-19 on our business, including limited capacity due to physical distancing requirements and the continued uncertainty regarding the duration of the pandemic – exacerbated in California by the State’s unwillingness to lift restrictions that would allow Disneyland to reopen – we have made the very difficult decision to begin the process of reducing our workforce at our Parks, Experiences and Products segment at all levels, having kept non-working Cast Members on furlough since April, while paying healthcare benefits,” said Josh D’Amaro, Disney Parks chairman. “Approximately 28,000 domestic employees will be affected, of which about 67% are part-time. We are talking with impacted employees as well as to the unions on next steps for union-represented Cast Members.” 1872
The Rev. Billy Graham's body will lie in honor in the U.S. Capitol for two days next week.U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan said the public and members of Congress will be invited to pay respects to "America's Pastor" on Feb. 28 and March 1. The last time a private citizen laid in honor at the Capitol was 2005, when Rosa Parks died.Graham, a famous evangelist who preached to hundreds of millions of people in 185 countries around the world, died Wednesday, Feb. 21. He was 99 years old.On Monday and Tuesday his body will lie in repose at his library in Charlotte, North Carolina, according to the Associated Press. A funeral is scheduled for March 2 on the grounds of the library. 687
The Supreme Court is siding with Republicans to prevent Wisconsin from counting mailed ballots that are received after Election Day. In a 5-3 order, the justices on Monday refused to reinstate a lower court order that called for mailed ballots to be counted if they are received up to six days after the election. A federal appeals court had already put that order on hold. The three liberal justices dissented from the order issued just before the Senate started voting on Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination. Democrats argued that the flood of absentee ballots and other challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic makes it necessary to extend the deadline. 677
The weather at the beginning of November and the end of October are going to look very different across the country.Temperatures in the eastern half of the country, except the Northeast, took a big drop and even saw some snow. At the same time, the West Coast was dealing with some record-breaking heat. 311