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SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The latest ABC News national polling average shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 8 points.But a lot of people are wondering, can we trust the polls after what happened in 2016?The last time Donald Trump was on the ballot in 2016, the polls had him trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by an average of 3.2 percentage points, and we know what happened.However, pollsters weren’t off by as much as you might think.“At the national level, the polling was, remarkably, given all things, precise,” said Jay Leve, CEO of the polling firm SurveyUSA.Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1 points instead of 3.2, the most accurate these national polls had been in 80 years, according to an analysis by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.Where the polls did miss badly was at the state level, particularly in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three states that were critical in the Electoral College.Leve said there were several reasons for the polling problems at the state level.“Polling is a very expensive undertaking and so it is not possible for the handful of media organizations with pockets deep enough to afford a public opinion poll to be able to poll in every critical battleground state,” he said.Another reason? “Some of it has to do with what’s called ‘weighting,’” he added.To understand weighting, you have to know the two R’s of a good poll: it needs to be representative and random.Random samples are critical to the accuracy of polling, and you can look to your kitchen for an example why. Picture adding salt to a soup. If you mix it right, you can check the taste with any one spoonful -- you don’t have to eat the entire pot. That’s because each spoonful is a truly random sample.If you don’t mix the salt in, you could easily wind up sampling a part of the soup without any salt.When you’re trying to sample the American public with a political poll, either over the phone or most of the time now online, it’s more challenging to get a perfectly random spoonful.“The challenge is to find the individuals in the right numbers and secure their cooperation. Those two things don’t automatically work in sync,” Leve said. “People don’t want to be disturbed. They want privacy and a pollster by definition is an interruption.”It turns out, certain people tend to resist taking polls, while others are more willing. Research shows people with college degrees are more likely to respond to surveys than high school grads.That means surveys run the risk of not being representative of the voter population at large, and Leve said that kind of imbalance played a big role in 2016.To make a sample representative, pollsters gather up as many responses as they can, then adjust them with a process called weighting -- basically boosting or shrinking responses from people with certain demographics to match census data and the expected turnout.“The weighting criteria that was in issue in 2016 was whether you had enough non-college educated white voters in your sample,” Leve said. “If you did, you got the Trump forecast correct.”State polls that didn’t weight by education level missed badly, because to an extent far greater than in previous elections, voters with a college education broke for Clinton while voters with a high school education backed Trump.There’s some evidence that pollsters have learned from their 2016 mistakes. Polling in the 2018 midterms was very accurate -- a full point better than the average over the last 20 years.So can we trust the polls this time around?Leve says yes, as long as you remember that polls are just a snapshot in time and Donald Trump is difficult to predict.“Don’t be surprised if something happens in the final four, five, six days of the election, right before November 3rd, that’s so unforeseeable that neither you nor I nor anyone watching us could have imagined. And if so, that’s going to throw all the polls off,” he said. 3979

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The Navy confirmed Thursday that the suspected Golden State Killer attended and graduated basic training at the Naval Training Center in San Diego.Officials say Joseph DeAngelo, 72, graduated from the training center after attending from October to December of 1964.DeAngelo also served aboard the Boston-class guided-missile cruiser USS Canberra (pictured below) during the Vietnam War.The Naval Training Center closed in 1997 and is now known as Liberty Station. The San Diego's District Attorney is also reexamining cold cases in San Diego that may have links to DeAngelo. TIMELINE: Major events in Golden State killer caseNew information Thursday also helps paint the picture of how authorities were able to catch the man accused of killing at least 12 people and raping at least 45 women.Prosecutors say authorities used genealogical sites to find a DNA match for DeAngelo, according to the Associated Press.Investigators compared the DNA collected from a crime scene of the Golden State killer to online genetic profiles and found a match: A relative of DeAngelo. Investigators didn't go into further detail such as which company they went through. DeAngelo is accused of committing the murders, rapes and more than 120 burglaries in the decade spanning between 1976 and 1986.RELATED: Suspect identified, arrested in East Area Rapist/Golden State Killer caseMost of the crimes happened near Sacramento and in the Bay Area.The Associated Press contributed to this report. 1544

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — The California Center for the Arts, Escondido will host drive-in live concerts and a movie series this month.The concerts and movie screenings will be held at the former Nordstrom parking lot at Westfield North County at 8 p.m. Spaces for more than 250 vehicles will be made available and spaced apart to keep listeners distanced.The scheduled shows start on Aug. 14 with a showing of the classic musical Grease and continue on Aug. 15 and 16 with a performance by Jersey Boys stars Christian Hoff and Travis Cloer. Hoff, a Tony Award-winning actor, is best known for his portrayal of the role Tommy Devito from the Four Season’s and Cloer is the longest-running actor to play the role Frankie Valli in Jersey Boys.Tickets to the general public will go on sale on Aug. 1 at 1 p.m. here or by calling 800-988-4253. Tickets start at per car.A portion of ticket proceeds will benefit the Escondido Community Foundation and The Central San Diego Black Chamber of Commerce Foundation.The drive-in series may extend into the fall, the center says. 1072

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) - The Marine Corps reported an E.coli outbreak Tuesday among more than 300 troops at Marine Corps Recruit Depot in San Diego.The diarrheal illness has affected 302 of approximately 5,500 recruits at the base. The cases had tapered off in the past week but a spike was reported Monday.Ten recruits were admitted to an off-base medical facility while the remainder are being cared for at MCRD. The source of the outbreak is under investigation, according to the Marine Corps."Our immediate focus is identifying, isolating and treating recruits who present symptoms," said Brig. Gen. William Jurney, commanding general, MCRD San Diego and the Western Recruiting Region. "We are working to identify the cause of the sickness, making sure our affected recruits can return to training as soon as possible and continuing training for recruits not influenced."The Marine Corps is taking preventative action to stop the outbreak including: 955

SAN DIEGO (KGTV) -- The COVID-19 pandemic has brought uncertainty to school districts across the state. With health conditions changing daily, so does the look of your child's education in the fall.This week an announcement of 100% distance learning from the state's two largest school districts sent some parents into an immediate panic."I was very taken aback," said San Diego mom Leona Smith.How long will classes be virtual? At this point, there's not a clear-cut answer. Parents are left with a lot of questions about how virtual and hybrid programs will impact their kids' education and their family."What are the resources going to be? How is it going to be laid out? What is the time spent? Is it going to be more structured through the distance learning than I felt it had been?" Smith said.Los Angeles Unified and San Diego Unified school districts made their course public, while other districts are still determining what the first day of school will look like, and some already have students back on campus.Statewide, there is no one-size-fits-all answer, but there are requirements districts need to follow."Most parents don't know there is a minutes requirement for each day," said Kevin Gordon with Capitol Advisors Group. "There's actually an annual minutes requirement that we have to hit for kids, and then there's actually a minimum number of days per year that we have to hit – 180 days, generally, and 180 minutes, generally."Gordon said a school day requires a minimum of 180 minutes or three hours of education at lower grade levels and 240 minutes or four hours for high school students.Gordon said those are minimum time standards and most districts exceed that.Reporter Adam Racusin asked him about class sizes."While they are lower than they used to be, they aren't the 20 to 1 that we would like them to be. And in all the upper grades they are absolutely exceeding 30 to 1 in most California classrooms," Gordon said.Imagine the challenge for districts that are bringing students back onto campus while following social distancing guidelines."It's not about cutting class sizes in half, it's like cutting class sizes into thirds," Gordon said.Another area of concern surrounds students who may need more support and instruction than they can get through typical distance learning.In California, once a child is found eligible for special education, the family will participate in the process by attending an individualized education program or IEP. It's both a process and a written document."It becomes almost like a contract and it says here's what the school district is going to do for the student" said special education attorney Timothy Adams."Parents really need the school district to help them, especially in circumstances where the student has really complex needs and requires a variety of in-person, therapeutic services that are delivered usually through their IEP. We need the school districts to implement those services," he explained.Many parents will have to wait for answers, while districts work to make plans flexible enough to adapt to changing community conditions.We reached out to the California Department of Education about guidance for districts regarding hours of learning a day, class sizes, and special education and did not hear back. 3304

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