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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has been issuing frequent projections since March in an attempt to model the spread and impact of the coronavirus across the world.The models have been used by the CDC and White House coronavirus task force in an effort to better understand the potential number of deaths the coronavirus could cause.On Friday, the model added a new variable, one that could cause a steep decline of coronavirus deaths throughout the US. The IHME’s newest model, which predicts the number of coronavirus deaths in the US through the end of March, is now weighing the potential impact of vaccines on the virus.For those hoping for an immediate drop in hospitalizations and deaths caused by the coronavirus as soon as vaccinations begin later this month might be disappointed. The IHME's model shows the initial batch of vaccinations will have a relatively muted effect on deaths and hospitalizations initially. While by April 1, much of the general US population will likely not be fully vaccinated, many in the high-risk category should expect to vaccinated by then. How fast they get vaccinated will play a role in determining the number of coronavirus deaths in the US.As of Friday evening, there have been over 278,000 coronavirus-related deaths reported throughout the US, per Johns Hopkins University data. Without any vaccines reaching Americans, the IHME’s model projects a total of 548,000 would die from the coronavirus through April 1, meaning 270,000 deaths between now and then.If COVID-19 vaccines are distributed at expected levels, 9,000 lives would be saved by April 1, reducing the number of deaths between now and then to 261,000. But a rapid vaccine rollout – one that would vaccinate the high-risk population and begin to vaccinate the general population by the spring -- would result in 250,000 deaths between now and April 1.“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”In the meantime, Murray says universal mask wearing and social distancing will save more lives than a potential vaccine in the next four months.“Especially in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s crucial for governments to impose or re-impose mandates that limit gatherings and require masks. Where the winter surge is driving spikes in infections, there will be many people who can still become infected and possibly die before the vaccine is fully rolled out,” said Murray.To see the IHME’s state-by-state projections for deaths, hospitalizations and cases, clickhere. 2790

The University of Cincinnati's Board of Trustees voted Tuesday morning to remove Marge Schott's name from the university's baseball stadium and another space in the school's archive library immediately."Marge Schott’s record of racism and bigotry stands at stark odds with our University’s core commitment to dignity, equity, and inclusion," UC president Neville Pinto said. "I hope this action serves as an enduring reminder that we cannot remain silent or indifferent when it comes to prejudice, hate, or inequity. More than ever, our world needs us to convert our values into real and lasting action.”The board wrote in their resolution that they stand with Pinto to fight inequality."The change we want to see starts with us," the board wrote.The UC baseball stadium was constructed in 2004 and the facility was named Marge Schott Stadium in the spring of 2006 after the Marge and Charles J. Schott Foundation made a million gift to the Richard E. Lindner Varsity Village.RELATED: Pro, college athletes want University of Cincinnati baseball stadium to be renamed amid protestsA petition was started online by former UC baseball player Jordan Ramey to rename the stadium due to Schott's many racists, homophobic and anti-Semitic remarks she made while she owned the Cincinnati Reds between 1984 and 1999.Ramey learned of the board's unanimous vote Tuesday morning on social media."It's great news," Ramey told WCPO. "You can see where coming together all races - black, white, everybody, all backgrounds - what community together can do for a community in a short notice. So this is a testament to that."UC athletic director John Cunningham told Ramey last week that there was momentum for the change."I had a good feeling about it," Ramey said. "You don't have to be a big name to make a change and that's huge."UC pitcher Nathan Moore was instrumental in helping Ramey with the petition. He spoke with Dr. Pinto on the phone Tuesday morning after the board's vote."Very overjoyed, really," Moore said. "It's a great feeling just to know the Cincinnati community, the school, our board wants to move everything in the right direction. And I think everybody is on the same page with that. To see this happening is amazing."UC baseball coach Scott Googins said he supported Moore, Ramey, and the other players who helped with the petition."I'm happy for Nate Moore and bringing this to light and the change that happened," Googins said. "I'm just supporting those guys. Obviously it's progress. I'd say that. We're making some good chances and it's progress."WCPO previously reported that a Reds employee said Schott used racial slurs to refer to black Reds players; her marketing director said she called him a "beady-eyed Jew," and at one point, she said Adolf Hitler had been a good leader before World War II."Just imagine how a Black student might feel walking past that, knowing that her amount of money in a donation made it OK for her name to be commemorated on a building here," Moore said.Ramey's petition received national attention regarding the stadium name."This is such a touchy topic people don't talk about which we should as a community," Ramey said. "This is a very important topic that people gloss over. It's very important for us to realize how fast this did happen. That all it did was coming together, unity, and somebody asking for change."Ramey said Tuesday's vote wasn't a celebration per se, but it has brought awareness quickly and is an indicator of the direction of the country."As an athlete for me personally as an athlete going through UC it was conflicting to play under that name," Ramey said. "It was. I'm going to put my all out and my teammates are going to put their all-out - we're brothers - but at the end of the day that's a conflicting situation to be put in as a black athlete at the university. I don't want that to happen for anybody else coming into the next generation."The Marge and Charles Schott Foundation previously made a statement about the petition."We can ask you to learn from Mrs. Schott's mistakes as well as her great love for Cincinnati," a statement from the Schott Foundation reads. "We fully support the decisions made by the organizations that have received grants from the Foundation."St. Ursula Academy decided previously to remove Schott's name from two of their campus facilities: a stadium and a school building.There was no immediate word from UC when the exterior letters of the stadium name will be removed. There is also a plaque at the stadium.Ramey doesn't have a preference for the new name of the stadium. He's just glad the community will help determine its direction."Alumni Field is what they are throwing around right now," Ramey said. "So Alumni Stadium that would be cool. We'll see where that goes but I'm glad that we got to where we're at today."WCPO's Jasmine Minor and Zach McAuliffe first reported this story. 4916

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now projects that 67,000 American lives would be saved between now and December 1 by near universal wearing of masks.The IHME released the updated model on Thursday. As part of the update, the IHME said that four states, Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina, have hit an important metric of a daily death rate of eight per one million residents, and that those states should re-impose statewide closures of non-essential businesses.The IHME’s coronavirus projections have been frequently cited in the past by the White House’s coronavirus task force. The group uses state data along with other metrics to create projections on the number of coronavirus-related deaths throughout the US.The model projects with inconsistent use of masks, the US death toll for the coronavirus will be up to 295,000 by December 1, an increase from the current figure of 158,000, per Johns Hopkins University data. The IHME’s projections drops considerably to 228,000 if masks are worn universally outside of the home.IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said at a news conference on Thursday that mask wearing mandates work, but communities also respond when they see cases are spreading.“People do respond to the circumstances in their community,” Murray said. “Mandates have an important effect.”One thing the model does not take into account is the use of therapeutics of a possible vaccine. Murray said that the IHME is closely monitoring the effectiveness of two potential therapeutics – remdesivir and dexamethasone – and may adjust future models as more is learned about those drugs.The model expects the number of coronavirus-related deaths to ebb and flow into the fall, but begin to increase by November. "November is a month we expect the spread to increase due to seasonality," Murray said. We are expecting considerable daily deaths. That pushes up our projections."“We expect it rise later in the fall,” Murray added.One cause for concern comes at the end of November when families begin to travel for holidays such as Thanksgiving.Murray said that while mask-wearing is not necessary when around family members of the same household, he said mask-wearing may be necessary for holiday gatherings. Murray said his family is taking the recommendation one step further, and is simply not gathering with extended relatives this fall.What’s built into the IHME’s projection is that a number of states will need to implement stricter closures in order to slow the spread. As part of the IHME’s recommendation, states implement closures of non-essential businesses when there is a threshold of eight deaths a day per million. Also part of the modeling is based on 50% of schools being closed in each state for the upcoming year. Murray said with many schools opening or implementing hybrid models, more will be learned in the coming weeks on how easily the virus spreads within schools.Recent measures in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas has allowed a small decline in cases, but deaths in those states have not dropped off, according to Murray.“We have been seeing cases peaking and hospitalizations peaking and deaths not quite yet peaking, but we expect them to peak in the near future but we don’t expect a sharp decline," Murray said.To see a state-by-state breakdown of the IHME’s projections, click here. 3403

The U.S. Census Bureau says only a tiny percentage of records are affected by data irregularities that are putting in jeopardy a year-end deadline for turning in numbers used for divvying up congressional seats. However, released internal documents show the "high complexity" problems could push the release to February 2021. The Census Bureau told a congressional committee Thursday that the anomalies are being resolved as quickly as possible. House Democrats however say documents they obtained from Census sources, despite Trump administration stonewalling, show hundreds of thousands of records are affected.Fixing the irregularities could mean missing a Dec. 31 deadline for the Census Bureau to turn reapportionment numbers in to Congress. The internal Census documents shared by House Democrats show the data issues, which include several "high complexity" problems, could delay the once-a-decade report until February. Although the documents do not specify the extent of the larger issues, they do say incorrect handling of the issues could skew the count smaller or larger in some areas. They also say the Census Bureau estimates they need an additional 20 days for data processing. The bureau says the timeline remains in flux.The Census Bureau issued a statement asserting that "these kinds of anomalies and issues are expected and are similar to the Census Bureau's experience in prior decennial censuses." The Census Bureau Director acknowledged the issues in mid-November, more details and the delayed timeline are coming out now. The timeline is getting attention because it may or may not be after President Donald Trump leaves office on January 20. Trump has expressed interest in excluding unauthorized immigrants from the Census count. There have been challenges in court and questions about whether this could legally be done, and also whether it physically can be done by coming up with a reliable number to exclude. Three lower courts have blocked the directive from Trump saying it violates federal law that says the census should could the "whole number of persons" in each state. The Supreme Court just this week heard arguments in the case. They have not issued their ruling yet. 2215

Mark Ostrowski with Check Point Software.The security company says coronavirus-related cyber attacks are down since the summer, but the number of malicious websites related to COVID-19 vaccines is up.The warnings were reiterated Wednesday by French-based international policing agency Interpol, which issued a global alert that organized crime groups may be attempting to sell stolen vaccines or set up scams with the promise of vaccines. So-called "threat actors" are sending out vaccine-related email phishing campaigns. A recent one had the email subject: "Urgent information letter: COVID-19 new approved vaccines."“So, what I would really warn folks is that if you receive an email that contains a vaccine sort of sensational type of subject in the email itself, and then there's an attachment, and the attachment is either an executable or office document, those are things that you want to watch out for,” said Ostrowski.People who opened that document in the phishing email actually had a way to steal usernames and passwords.You should only get your vaccine-related information from trusted news or government websites, not your inbox.“This is just the next thing, right. So, every time there's a new announcement, that specific subject, that specific entity, that's tied to say a vaccine is what's going to become the next target, right. So, these threat actors are very, very closely monitoring the global pandemic and then using those moments to quickly make and adjust their attack methods.” 1806